My long-term outlook on Apple is bearish from current valuations, although short-term momentum remains strong.
Apple delivered excellent Q3 results, with revenue growing 16% YoY and iPhone sales reaching record June-quarter levels. However, forward growth is expected to slow, while rising memory costs are beginning to pressure gross margins.
The bigger structural concern is Services. Increasing antitrust regulation in the U.S. and Europe is weakening Apple's control over App Store payments and commissions, putting pressure on one of the company's highest-margin businesses.
Apple also trades around 35x earnings and above a $4T valuation, leaving relatively little room for slower growth or execution problems.
Additional risks include intense competition in China, rising component costs, uncertainty around AI monetization, and the September CEO transition from Tim Cook to John Ternus.
The upcoming iPhone cycle could support the stock in the short term, but from a longer-term perspective I see increasing risk of valuation compression if earnings and Services growth fail to justify Apple's premium multiple.
Apple delivered excellent Q3 results, with revenue growing 16% YoY and iPhone sales reaching record June-quarter levels. However, forward growth is expected to slow, while rising memory costs are beginning to pressure gross margins.
The bigger structural concern is Services. Increasing antitrust regulation in the U.S. and Europe is weakening Apple's control over App Store payments and commissions, putting pressure on one of the company's highest-margin businesses.
Apple also trades around 35x earnings and above a $4T valuation, leaving relatively little room for slower growth or execution problems.
Additional risks include intense competition in China, rising component costs, uncertainty around AI monetization, and the September CEO transition from Tim Cook to John Ternus.
The upcoming iPhone cycle could support the stock in the short term, but from a longer-term perspective I see increasing risk of valuation compression if earnings and Services growth fail to justify Apple's premium multiple.
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Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.