SMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of BTCUSD – Daily (1D) chart using SMC + Fibonacci + EMA mean-reversion logic.
⸻
Market Context
• Higher-timeframe bias: Bullish (macro)
• Long-term structure still intact despite the pullback
• Current move down = deep corrective phase, not confirmed trend reversal yet
• Price is trading below EMA 50, but reacting near EMA 200 + HTF support
⸻
What Happened (Why BTC Dropped)
• Liquidity taken at the October high
• Sharp impulsive sell-off → distribution + stop-hunt
• Price retraced into a high-confluence discount zone
⸻
Key Demand / Accumulation Zone (Blue Area)
~85,000 – 92,000
This zone is important because it aligns with:
• Fib OTE zone (0.705 – 0.79)
• Previous daily demand
• Range low support
• Proximity to EMA 50 (93K) → mean reversion magnet
• Multiple long lower wicks → absorption
This suggests smart money accumulation, not panic selling.
⸻
Fibonacci Logic
Measured from major swing low → all-time high
• 0.5 & 0.62 → failed supports
• 0.705 – 0.79 → institutional rebalance zone
Textbook location for trend continuation buys
⸻
Trade Idea (Swing Long)
Buy on confirmation inside demand
• Entry: 86,000 – 90,000
• Stop Loss: Below demand (~82,000)
• Targets:
• TP1: 93,000 (EMA 50)
• TP2: 101,800 (EMA 200 / mid-range)
• Final TP: 121,000+ (marked target point / liquidity above highs)
RR potential: 1:4 to 1:6 (swing setup)
⸻
Confirmation Signals (Very Important on BTC)
Wait for at least one:
• Daily or 4H bullish engulfing
• Strong rejection wick from demand
• 4H CHoCH after sweep of lows
• Compression → expansion behavior
⸻
Invalidation
• Daily close below ~82,000
• Acceptance below demand with strong volume
If that happens → bullish swing idea is invalid, and market likely seeks lower HTF liquidity.
⸻ Mr SMC Trading point
Summary
This is a high-timeframe accumulation & continuation setup:
• Deep discount
• Fib OTE + demand
• EMA mean reversion
BTC rewards patience and HTF discipline — confirmation > prediction.
If you want, I can:
• Break this into a 4H / 1H execution plan
• Help you build a BTC-specific SMC swing model
• Or map bearish alternative scenarios for risk control
Please support boost this analysis
Technical analysis of BTCUSD – Daily (1D) chart using SMC + Fibonacci + EMA mean-reversion logic.
⸻
Market Context
• Higher-timeframe bias: Bullish (macro)
• Long-term structure still intact despite the pullback
• Current move down = deep corrective phase, not confirmed trend reversal yet
• Price is trading below EMA 50, but reacting near EMA 200 + HTF support
⸻
What Happened (Why BTC Dropped)
• Liquidity taken at the October high
• Sharp impulsive sell-off → distribution + stop-hunt
• Price retraced into a high-confluence discount zone
⸻
Key Demand / Accumulation Zone (Blue Area)
~85,000 – 92,000
This zone is important because it aligns with:
• Fib OTE zone (0.705 – 0.79)
• Previous daily demand
• Range low support
• Proximity to EMA 50 (93K) → mean reversion magnet
• Multiple long lower wicks → absorption
This suggests smart money accumulation, not panic selling.
⸻
Fibonacci Logic
Measured from major swing low → all-time high
• 0.5 & 0.62 → failed supports
• 0.705 – 0.79 → institutional rebalance zone
Textbook location for trend continuation buys
⸻
Trade Idea (Swing Long)
Buy on confirmation inside demand
• Entry: 86,000 – 90,000
• Stop Loss: Below demand (~82,000)
• Targets:
• TP1: 93,000 (EMA 50)
• TP2: 101,800 (EMA 200 / mid-range)
• Final TP: 121,000+ (marked target point / liquidity above highs)
RR potential: 1:4 to 1:6 (swing setup)
⸻
Confirmation Signals (Very Important on BTC)
Wait for at least one:
• Daily or 4H bullish engulfing
• Strong rejection wick from demand
• 4H CHoCH after sweep of lows
• Compression → expansion behavior
⸻
Invalidation
• Daily close below ~82,000
• Acceptance below demand with strong volume
If that happens → bullish swing idea is invalid, and market likely seeks lower HTF liquidity.
⸻ Mr SMC Trading point
Summary
This is a high-timeframe accumulation & continuation setup:
• Deep discount
• Fib OTE + demand
• EMA mean reversion
BTC rewards patience and HTF discipline — confirmation > prediction.
If you want, I can:
• Break this into a 4H / 1H execution plan
• Help you build a BTC-specific SMC swing model
• Or map bearish alternative scenarios for risk control
Please support boost this analysis
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Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.
(Services:✔️ JOIN Telegram channel
t.me/+zmgnHqUTiY8wMTU0
t.me/+zmgnHqUTiY8wMTU0
t.me/+zmgnHqUTiY8wMTU0
Join my recommended broker , link 👇
World best broker exness ✅D
one.exnesstrack.org/a/l1t1rf3p6v
t.me/+zmgnHqUTiY8wMTU0
t.me/+zmgnHqUTiY8wMTU0
t.me/+zmgnHqUTiY8wMTU0
Join my recommended broker , link 👇
World best broker exness ✅D
one.exnesstrack.org/a/l1t1rf3p6v
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.