Are we about to repeat 2022 or about to break BTC 4 year cycle ?

Yes, it seems VERY possible we could break that cycle and here is why.

This chart, I first posted in Apeil 2024. has played out very well.
Each vertical line is one year.
The Blue Arc is the diminishing Curve of % increase in BTC Price from Low to high, as first posted in 2022
The Coloured Boxes are the 4 year cycle phases,
RED is the post ATH and Bear market
GREY is post Bottom and waiting fro SMA to cross Bullish, PA Rises
BLUE is beginning of Bull run
GRREN Bull run to ATH

As you can see, currently, we are half way through the RED Zone. Traditionally, This would point towards a continued Drop in store for a few more months.
We are actually in a similar position to 2022 except we do not currently have the TradFi attacks and Bank crashes that took out FTX and other Crypto organisations.

You will Notice the 200 week SMA ( Yellow) has now also been touched by PA.
In previous RED zones, this touch happens at the end of the Red zone, except for 2022.
So a further Drop iseems less likely.

PA has also reached an accepted "Bottom Zone"
This is also supported by chart that shows us the 50 and 100 week SMA crossovers.

Orange day count boxes for ATH to SMA cross over
Blue to next Bullish cross over.
Grey Bullish cross over to ATH

Zoomed in, we see that the Orange crossover has just occured,

As we can see from previous years, except the 2022 bear, This crossover signals that we are very near or on the Bottom and PA rises from here, unless we have serious issues , as we did in 2022.

So, we either are about to see another Drop caused by some MACRO event....and this IS possible.
Or we break the 4 year cycle.....
Why will this break the 4 year cycle. ?

Looking back to main chart, at No point has PA begun a continued Rise to ATH half way through the RED Zone after an ATH.

So we should expect a further drop...
BUT We have 3 SMA's pointing towards a Bottom and traditional pushes from these.
Traditionally, this Rise to ATH begins on or near that 50 / 100 crossover. We just had that.
PA has rarely dropped below the 200 week SMA and when it does, it finds a floor pretty quick and returns, as has jst happened.
Again, 2022 was an exception with many targetted outside influences.
The Rise maybe Slow, almost nohexistant BUT it is Not a Drop to 40K or Lower.
Way back in January this year, I said 60K zone would be the bottom and I think this is still the case.
And I have been buying..........
Everything here is just ONE example of why I think we will see a change in cycles......

Jult has a high chance of being GREEN and so, despite everything I say here, August is a month to watch CLOSE but, at worst, If PA rises this month, August will simply see us return to this area.
Time Will tell................and I cannot wait

Orriginal

Nothing to be taken as Financial advice.
I will always say
"Only invest what you can afford to loose. When you are ready, take out your original investment. This way, it is only your profit that is at risk"
THAT is Financial advice

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Orriginal