BTC is reacting from the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 79.8K–80K, leaving room for a short-term recovery.
If buyers hold this area, price could rebound toward 81.5K, followed by the upper-channel resistance around 82.3K–82.7K. That zone is likely to be the real test. A rejection there would keep the broader structure weak and could send BTC back toward 80K.
Macro still favors caution beyond the immediate bounce. The Fed kept rates at 3.75–4.00%, but described growth as strong and inflation as still elevated, while markets continue to price a meaningful chance of another hike in December.
The bearish follow-through weakens if BTC breaks and holds above 82.7K–83K.
Preferred scenario: hold 79.8K–80K → rebound toward 82.3K–82.7K → rejection → back toward 80K.
If buyers hold this area, price could rebound toward 81.5K, followed by the upper-channel resistance around 82.3K–82.7K. That zone is likely to be the real test. A rejection there would keep the broader structure weak and could send BTC back toward 80K.
Macro still favors caution beyond the immediate bounce. The Fed kept rates at 3.75–4.00%, but described growth as strong and inflation as still elevated, while markets continue to price a meaningful chance of another hike in December.
The bearish follow-through weakens if BTC breaks and holds above 82.7K–83K.
Preferred scenario: hold 79.8K–80K → rebound toward 82.3K–82.7K → rejection → back toward 80K.
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