Last weeks high: $117,955
Last weeks low: $110,678.07
Midpoint: $114,316.53
This weekly outlook is a day late due to a public holiday but what happened last week is clear. A sell-off from Monday all the way until Sunday and as suggested in the last weeks outlook the $108,000-$111,000 level did provide the support BTC bulls were looking for, after a 6.2% drop from high to low despite a Friday rally thanks to the FED chairs speech.
Looking at the chart it is in my opinion not ideal for the bulls, my reasoning for this:
August/September seasonality coming into play. Historically a poor return in this period of the year.
Heavy sell-off despite good macro news implies exhaustion on the buy side.
Monthly close towards the end of this week, window dressing/de-risking takes place and increases the sell-side pressure.
Daily bearish structure confirmed with new lower high and lower low set.
So what does this mean for this week? Locating an area on the chart I'd like to see BTC strength from,. For me that would be 1D 200 EMA level at ~$103,000. Since September 2023 BTC has used the 1D 200 EMA as a springboard for each of its rallies and so for this bullrun to continue price must continue to respond positively off the level. The RSI would have likely reached oversold adding confluence to potential Long entries.
In a bullish scenario we could see the weekly low get reclaimed, this has routinely happened in the past and often leads to a test of the midpoint, this would be a good short term play but my gut says the overall higher timeframe (next month) is continued sell-off.
Last weeks low: $110,678.07
Midpoint: $114,316.53
This weekly outlook is a day late due to a public holiday but what happened last week is clear. A sell-off from Monday all the way until Sunday and as suggested in the last weeks outlook the $108,000-$111,000 level did provide the support BTC bulls were looking for, after a 6.2% drop from high to low despite a Friday rally thanks to the FED chairs speech.
Looking at the chart it is in my opinion not ideal for the bulls, my reasoning for this:
August/September seasonality coming into play. Historically a poor return in this period of the year.
Heavy sell-off despite good macro news implies exhaustion on the buy side.
Monthly close towards the end of this week, window dressing/de-risking takes place and increases the sell-side pressure.
Daily bearish structure confirmed with new lower high and lower low set.
So what does this mean for this week? Locating an area on the chart I'd like to see BTC strength from,. For me that would be 1D 200 EMA level at ~$103,000. Since September 2023 BTC has used the 1D 200 EMA as a springboard for each of its rallies and so for this bullrun to continue price must continue to respond positively off the level. The RSI would have likely reached oversold adding confluence to potential Long entries.
In a bullish scenario we could see the weekly low get reclaimed, this has routinely happened in the past and often leads to a test of the midpoint, this would be a good short term play but my gut says the overall higher timeframe (next month) is continued sell-off.
Ghi chú
Initial weekly low retest as resistance is confirmed as new resistance for now. BTC feels very heavy here.Giao dịch đang hoạt động
There's the reclaim of the weekly low with a retest for support. Bitcoin looking much stronger than it did at the beginning of the week. Ghi chú
Weekly low lost again and the bulls could not reach a midpoint retest, the trend bias is currently bearish on the lower timeframes as price rolls over.Ghi chú
Harsh rejection off the weekly low$105,000 next stop i'm looking for
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Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.