I am setting a mental note to closely monitor Chagee (CHA) for potential consolidation around its recent lows in the coming month, coinciding with the IPO lock-up expiration.
The IPO unlock is often accompanied by indiscriminate selling and a surge in supply flooding the market.
Short-term play to capture a rebound over the next 3 to 6 months.
Technicals + ENTRY Strategy
With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) forming higher lows despite price action touching new lows, it will serve as a cautionary green light for me to gradually TWAP shares adding, (not timing bottom).
Fundamental View:
Since its IPO, Chagee’s stock has declined significantly due to several reasons.
Looking into Q4:
I will be watching for the bearish sentiment to subside. Chagee’s story should not end here, given its aggressive expansion of outlets across multiple regions and countries. I expect the stock’s momentum and investor enthusiasm to revive, potentially pushing the price back up to the USD 20-22 range by December or January 2026.
Stay sane, and good luck out there.
Best,
P
The IPO unlock is often accompanied by indiscriminate selling and a surge in supply flooding the market.
Short-term play to capture a rebound over the next 3 to 6 months.
Technicals + ENTRY Strategy
With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) forming higher lows despite price action touching new lows, it will serve as a cautionary green light for me to gradually TWAP shares adding, (not timing bottom).
Fundamental View:
Since its IPO, Chagee’s stock has declined significantly due to several reasons.
- One factor was initial hype driven by its association with popular Gen Z-themed stocks such as Popmart and boba tea chains, which inevitably led to some cooling off.
- Chinese government efforts to curb “involution” and excessive competition have squeezed profit margins for tea chains, as onshore consumers are keenly aware that the cost of a cup of tea often ranges between 1 to 5 RMB, eroding profitability.
- Despite this, Chagee has maintained its premium positioning as the “Starbucks of Tea” and avoided excessive promotional discounts.
Looking into Q4:
I will be watching for the bearish sentiment to subside. Chagee’s story should not end here, given its aggressive expansion of outlets across multiple regions and countries. I expect the stock’s momentum and investor enthusiasm to revive, potentially pushing the price back up to the USD 20-22 range by December or January 2026.
Stay sane, and good luck out there.
Best,
P
Giao dịch đang hoạt động
On the point of Anti-involution drive by Chinese govt could be better phrased. Tea chains are running promotions so crazy that one cup can be delivered to the consumer at the cost of 5 RMB. Ghi chú
Continue to be active here - adding at 16.5 or better. I see peers in HK starting to find support after a synchronised sell-off since early - mid 2025 IPO. Mixue / 1364 HK / 2589 HK. Slow add with target price around last gap at ~$21.90.
Hopeful trade playout:
Entry: ~16.5
Exit:~$21.90
Holding Period: 4-6 month
Upside: ~32.7%
APR: ~89.5%
Best,
P
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Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.