Fundamental approach:
- The DXY extended gains this week, rising for three consecutive sessions, supported by surging oil prices that heightened inflation risks and reduced expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts.
- Rising crude prices, driven by the prospect of a protracted Middle East conflict that overshadowed the IEA's largest-ever coordinated 400-million-barrel reserve release, pushed out rate-cut expectations.
- Feb CPI rose 0.3% MoM and held at 2.4% YoY, broadly in line with forecasts, but the full impact of the energy shock has yet to be reflected. - The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting, with markets pricing in only one 0.25% cut, possibly in Sep.
The US dollar may face near-term volatility, with upcoming catalysts including the Fed's rate decision, developments on a ceasefire in the Middle East, and further oil price volatility.
Technical approach:
- DXY retested the support at 98.70 before creating another swing high. The price is approaching the ascending channel's upper bound, suggesting a continued uptrend.
- If DXY remains above 99.45, the price may advance to retest the immediate resistance at 100.25.
- On the contrary, a breach below 99.45 may prompt a further correction toward the EMAs.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
- The DXY extended gains this week, rising for three consecutive sessions, supported by surging oil prices that heightened inflation risks and reduced expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts.
- Rising crude prices, driven by the prospect of a protracted Middle East conflict that overshadowed the IEA's largest-ever coordinated 400-million-barrel reserve release, pushed out rate-cut expectations.
- Feb CPI rose 0.3% MoM and held at 2.4% YoY, broadly in line with forecasts, but the full impact of the energy shock has yet to be reflected. - The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting, with markets pricing in only one 0.25% cut, possibly in Sep.
The US dollar may face near-term volatility, with upcoming catalysts including the Fed's rate decision, developments on a ceasefire in the Middle East, and further oil price volatility.
Technical approach:
- DXY retested the support at 98.70 before creating another swing high. The price is approaching the ascending channel's upper bound, suggesting a continued uptrend.
- If DXY remains above 99.45, the price may advance to retest the immediate resistance at 100.25.
- On the contrary, a breach below 99.45 may prompt a further correction toward the EMAs.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Đóng lệnh: đạt mục tiêu
BTCUSD touched it 100.25 level and the upper bound.
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Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.