✅ 1. Overall Structure (1D Timeframe)
• A descending corrective channel (yellow lines)
• Major rejection at the channel top
• Price making lower highs (LH) → still bearish structure
• Price currently sitting below the mid-range of the channel
This means:
👉 Gold is still in a corrective downtrend, not bullish yet.
👉 High probability the market wants to fill lower OBs before any breakout.
________________________________________
✅ 2. Key Areas I Highlighted
🔷 1D TF FVG (4,107–4,150) – Major Resistance
• This zone is extremely important.
• Price has failed here multiple times already.
• As long as price is below this → bearish pressure continues.
This is the “breaker” level for bulls.
________________________________________
🔴 1D OB Zones Below (Demand Areas)
I mapped the OB zones correctly:
1️⃣ OB: 3,990 – 3,950
• First liquidity target
• Already almost tapped/mitigated
• Still valid for another reaction
2️⃣ OB: 3,929 – 3,885
• Stronger demand
• Highly likely to get tapped if the rejection continues
• My trendline bottom also aligns here → confluence
3️⃣ OB: 3,800 – 3,700
• If price breaks deeper into channel
• This is the next liquidity layer
These OBs line up perfectly with my descending channel.
________________________________________
Extreme Liquidity Below
I noted:
• 3100
• 3000
• 2600
These are macro liquidity harvest levels, NOT near-term.
Price falls here only if:
• Channel breaks down
• Major macro bearish shift occurs
→ Not likely in the next few weeks unless massive catalyst.
________________________________________
✅ 3. Updated Structural Reading (Using New Drawing)
A. Price recently failed to break the upper channel
This supports more downside.
B. I drew an ABC correction
The new chart also still shows:
• A → B → C decline likely forming
• Potential completion at the lower trendline
This supports a drop before any rally.
C. My white projection (V-shape recovery)
This large bullish projection is valid ONLY if:
• Price touches lower OB
➡️ 3,929 – 3,885
• And then breaks back above
➡️ 4,150
Only then the big bullish run can start.
________________________________________
📉 4. Most Likely Path (Updated With New Chart)
Based on my new structure:
Primary Scenario (70% probability)
Price drops to the lower OB:
→ 3,929 – 3,885
Possibly even wick into:
→ 3,800 – 3,700
Then:
Strong bounce → retest 1D FVG (4,107–4,150)
If rejection again → continuation inside channel.
________________________________________
Bullish Scenario (30% probability)
For my yellow arrow to be valid:
1. Price must touch the lower OB
2. Then form a strong reversal
3. Then break upward out of the descending channel
4. Then close above 4,150
5. Target becomes: 4,380 → 4,800
This matches my yellow long-term projection.
________________________________________
🎯 5. Key Levels to Watch (Updated)
Immediate Support
Level Significance
3,990 Weak OB – might not hold
3,950 First real support
3,929 – 3,885 🔥 Strong OB + channel bottom confluence
Immediate Resistance
Level Significance
4,107–4,150 🔷 Strong 1D FVG (must break for bulls)
4,200 Channel breakout level
4,380 First macro target
________________________________________
⭐ 6. Simple Final Summary (Very Clear)
My new chart indicates:
✔️ Market still bearish inside descending channel
✔️ Price likely drops to 3,929–3,885 OB
✔️ This is the best zone for bullish reversal
✔️ Bulls must break 4,150 to confirm trend change
✔️ If breakout happens → target 4,380–4,800
✔️ If OB fails → deeper channel drop to 3,700 OB
I drew the structure correctly. The analysis fully matches my levels.
• A descending corrective channel (yellow lines)
• Major rejection at the channel top
• Price making lower highs (LH) → still bearish structure
• Price currently sitting below the mid-range of the channel
This means:
👉 Gold is still in a corrective downtrend, not bullish yet.
👉 High probability the market wants to fill lower OBs before any breakout.
________________________________________
✅ 2. Key Areas I Highlighted
🔷 1D TF FVG (4,107–4,150) – Major Resistance
• This zone is extremely important.
• Price has failed here multiple times already.
• As long as price is below this → bearish pressure continues.
This is the “breaker” level for bulls.
________________________________________
🔴 1D OB Zones Below (Demand Areas)
I mapped the OB zones correctly:
1️⃣ OB: 3,990 – 3,950
• First liquidity target
• Already almost tapped/mitigated
• Still valid for another reaction
2️⃣ OB: 3,929 – 3,885
• Stronger demand
• Highly likely to get tapped if the rejection continues
• My trendline bottom also aligns here → confluence
3️⃣ OB: 3,800 – 3,700
• If price breaks deeper into channel
• This is the next liquidity layer
These OBs line up perfectly with my descending channel.
________________________________________
Extreme Liquidity Below
I noted:
• 3100
• 3000
• 2600
These are macro liquidity harvest levels, NOT near-term.
Price falls here only if:
• Channel breaks down
• Major macro bearish shift occurs
→ Not likely in the next few weeks unless massive catalyst.
________________________________________
✅ 3. Updated Structural Reading (Using New Drawing)
A. Price recently failed to break the upper channel
This supports more downside.
B. I drew an ABC correction
The new chart also still shows:
• A → B → C decline likely forming
• Potential completion at the lower trendline
This supports a drop before any rally.
C. My white projection (V-shape recovery)
This large bullish projection is valid ONLY if:
• Price touches lower OB
➡️ 3,929 – 3,885
• And then breaks back above
➡️ 4,150
Only then the big bullish run can start.
________________________________________
📉 4. Most Likely Path (Updated With New Chart)
Based on my new structure:
Primary Scenario (70% probability)
Price drops to the lower OB:
→ 3,929 – 3,885
Possibly even wick into:
→ 3,800 – 3,700
Then:
Strong bounce → retest 1D FVG (4,107–4,150)
If rejection again → continuation inside channel.
________________________________________
Bullish Scenario (30% probability)
For my yellow arrow to be valid:
1. Price must touch the lower OB
2. Then form a strong reversal
3. Then break upward out of the descending channel
4. Then close above 4,150
5. Target becomes: 4,380 → 4,800
This matches my yellow long-term projection.
________________________________________
🎯 5. Key Levels to Watch (Updated)
Immediate Support
Level Significance
3,990 Weak OB – might not hold
3,950 First real support
3,929 – 3,885 🔥 Strong OB + channel bottom confluence
Immediate Resistance
Level Significance
4,107–4,150 🔷 Strong 1D FVG (must break for bulls)
4,200 Channel breakout level
4,380 First macro target
________________________________________
⭐ 6. Simple Final Summary (Very Clear)
My new chart indicates:
✔️ Market still bearish inside descending channel
✔️ Price likely drops to 3,929–3,885 OB
✔️ This is the best zone for bullish reversal
✔️ Bulls must break 4,150 to confirm trend change
✔️ If breakout happens → target 4,380–4,800
✔️ If OB fails → deeper channel drop to 3,700 OB
I drew the structure correctly. The analysis fully matches my levels.
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.