Idea summary: Greaves Cotton has bounced hard from its ~₹120 base and is now testing a falling trendline that has capped price since the early-2025 peak. It is trading around ₹226, just under the trendline and the 0.382 Fib at ₹236.83. A weekly close above this zone would confirm a trend reversal.
What the chart shows:
Price made a clear higher low (~₹180-190) after the ₹120 bottom, ending the series of lower lows.
The recent weekly impulse (~₹190 to ~₹238) came on a visible volume expansion, which suggests real accumulation.
The descending trendline from the 2025 highs is the key resistance. Price has tapped it and been rejected once, which is normal before a breakout.
The Fib retracement is drawn from the ₹126 low to the ₹286 high. The 0.236 level at ₹225 is the immediate support, and 0.382 at ₹236.83 sits right at the trendline, so this is where the breakout has to happen.
Fundamental angle: EV sector turnaround
The company has been repositioning from a legacy engine and diesel business toward electric mobility, with EV two- and three-wheelers and the broader EV ecosystem as the growth leg.
Policy support for EV adoption and improving EV volumes across the sector are tailwinds for this theme.
If the EV business continues to scale and losses narrow, the market could re-rate the stock from a legacy auto-components name to an EV-transition play.
Levels to watch
Breakout trigger: weekly close above ~₹240 (trendline and 0.382 Fib).
Targets: ₹246 → ₹256 → ₹269 → ₹286, then ₹308 (1.272) as an extension.
Support: ₹225 first, then ₹190-180 (higher-low zone).
Invalidation: a weekly close below ~₹180 breaks the higher-low structure and negates the turnaround thesis.
Trade plan (idea only)
Wait for a weekly close above the trendline, ideally with above-average volume, rather than anticipating the breakout. A retest of the broken trendline or ₹236 would offer a lower-risk entry. Stops can be placed below the retest or below ₹225 for a tighter risk profile.
Risks
Trendline rejection again, as seen in the last test.
Weak EV demand or margin pressure.
Broader market weakness.
Educational purposes only, not investment advice. Please do your own research and manage risk.
What the chart shows:
Price made a clear higher low (~₹180-190) after the ₹120 bottom, ending the series of lower lows.
The recent weekly impulse (~₹190 to ~₹238) came on a visible volume expansion, which suggests real accumulation.
The descending trendline from the 2025 highs is the key resistance. Price has tapped it and been rejected once, which is normal before a breakout.
The Fib retracement is drawn from the ₹126 low to the ₹286 high. The 0.236 level at ₹225 is the immediate support, and 0.382 at ₹236.83 sits right at the trendline, so this is where the breakout has to happen.
Fundamental angle: EV sector turnaround
The company has been repositioning from a legacy engine and diesel business toward electric mobility, with EV two- and three-wheelers and the broader EV ecosystem as the growth leg.
Policy support for EV adoption and improving EV volumes across the sector are tailwinds for this theme.
If the EV business continues to scale and losses narrow, the market could re-rate the stock from a legacy auto-components name to an EV-transition play.
Levels to watch
Breakout trigger: weekly close above ~₹240 (trendline and 0.382 Fib).
Targets: ₹246 → ₹256 → ₹269 → ₹286, then ₹308 (1.272) as an extension.
Support: ₹225 first, then ₹190-180 (higher-low zone).
Invalidation: a weekly close below ~₹180 breaks the higher-low structure and negates the turnaround thesis.
Trade plan (idea only)
Wait for a weekly close above the trendline, ideally with above-average volume, rather than anticipating the breakout. A retest of the broken trendline or ₹236 would offer a lower-risk entry. Stops can be placed below the retest or below ₹225 for a tighter risk profile.
Risks
Trendline rejection again, as seen in the last test.
Weak EV demand or margin pressure.
Broader market weakness.
Educational purposes only, not investment advice. Please do your own research and manage risk.
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.