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Markets rarely move in a straight line forever. After an extended period of lower lows and lower highs across multiple degrees, the question eventually shifts from how far can this go to when does the structure begin to change. Right now the focus is not on calling a bottom, but on objectively assessing whether conditions are starting to align for a potential turn.
Price has been trending lower with clean structure across several degrees, reinforcing the bearish bias. That trend remains intact. However, momentum has begun to slow, and that change in behavior is important. Slowing momentum does not mean a reversal is guaranteed, but it often precedes structural transitions that are worth monitoring closely.
At this stage, there are two valid Elliott Wave counts that suggest the current decline may be approaching completion. Both counts allow for a near term resolution, but neither count on its own is enough to justify acting early. The market still needs to prove it.
Key Levels of Interest:
The next larger level of interest sits at 146. This is a meaningful area where a reaction would be expected, even if the broader trend ultimately continues lower. A response here helps answer an important question. Is price simply pausing before continuation, or is demand beginning to assert itself at a higher degree?
Above that, the most immediate level of interest is 173. This level represents the line in the sand for any bullish case to begin forming. Until that area is reclaimed with strength, the downside structure remains dominant.
The true test for a potential turn is not price reaching a level, but how it behaves after interacting with that level. What matters most is structure.
A sign of strength would be a break above 173 with an impulsive or motive move, followed by acceptance and holding above that level. Even a break at lesser degree pivots would be meaningful, as it would indicate that the sequence of lower highs is starting to fail.
Without that, any bounce remains corrective in nature and vulnerable to being sold into. The goal is not to anticipate the reversal, but to wait for the market to confirm that a change in character is underway.
This is a classic waiting game. Momentum divergence and overlapping wave counts suggest we may be close to a decision point, but price has not confirmed it yet. Until it does, the bearish structure deserves respect.
Letting the market show its hand reduces risk and keeps analysis aligned with reality rather than expectation. If strength appears, there will be opportunity. If it does not, the trend remains intact and downside scenarios stay in play.
The focus remains on observation, not prediction. Levels at 146 and 173 define the current battlefield. How price reacts around these areas will determine whether this move is simply another pause in a downtrend or the early stages of something more constructive. If 173 breaks, the move up could lead some substantial up side, even if it is just an internal retrace at the highest degree.
Trade Safe!
Trade Clarity!
Markets rarely move in a straight line forever. After an extended period of lower lows and lower highs across multiple degrees, the question eventually shifts from how far can this go to when does the structure begin to change. Right now the focus is not on calling a bottom, but on objectively assessing whether conditions are starting to align for a potential turn.
Price has been trending lower with clean structure across several degrees, reinforcing the bearish bias. That trend remains intact. However, momentum has begun to slow, and that change in behavior is important. Slowing momentum does not mean a reversal is guaranteed, but it often precedes structural transitions that are worth monitoring closely.
At this stage, there are two valid Elliott Wave counts that suggest the current decline may be approaching completion. Both counts allow for a near term resolution, but neither count on its own is enough to justify acting early. The market still needs to prove it.
Key Levels of Interest:
The next larger level of interest sits at 146. This is a meaningful area where a reaction would be expected, even if the broader trend ultimately continues lower. A response here helps answer an important question. Is price simply pausing before continuation, or is demand beginning to assert itself at a higher degree?
Above that, the most immediate level of interest is 173. This level represents the line in the sand for any bullish case to begin forming. Until that area is reclaimed with strength, the downside structure remains dominant.
The true test for a potential turn is not price reaching a level, but how it behaves after interacting with that level. What matters most is structure.
A sign of strength would be a break above 173 with an impulsive or motive move, followed by acceptance and holding above that level. Even a break at lesser degree pivots would be meaningful, as it would indicate that the sequence of lower highs is starting to fail.
Without that, any bounce remains corrective in nature and vulnerable to being sold into. The goal is not to anticipate the reversal, but to wait for the market to confirm that a change in character is underway.
This is a classic waiting game. Momentum divergence and overlapping wave counts suggest we may be close to a decision point, but price has not confirmed it yet. Until it does, the bearish structure deserves respect.
Letting the market show its hand reduces risk and keeps analysis aligned with reality rather than expectation. If strength appears, there will be opportunity. If it does not, the trend remains intact and downside scenarios stay in play.
The focus remains on observation, not prediction. Levels at 146 and 173 define the current battlefield. How price reacts around these areas will determine whether this move is simply another pause in a downtrend or the early stages of something more constructive. If 173 breaks, the move up could lead some substantial up side, even if it is just an internal retrace at the highest degree.
Trade Safe!
Trade Clarity!
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Trade Devils University Sensei: tradedevils.com/my-account/?ref=ebquu4
Certified Elliott Wave Analyst Master: t.co/2GQ7uSjJVG?amp=1
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More on the TradeDevils Discord discord.gg/p9bjnpwnMc
Trade Devils University Sensei: tradedevils.com/my-account/?ref=ebquu4
Certified Elliott Wave Analyst Master: t.co/2GQ7uSjJVG?amp=1
Trade Devils University Sensei: tradedevils.com/my-account/?ref=ebquu4
Certified Elliott Wave Analyst Master: t.co/2GQ7uSjJVG?amp=1
Bài đăng liên quan
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.