Setup: RMBS gapped down roughly 24% on the Apr 28 open, breaking well below the prior consolidation range of 120-141. The 4h chart shows a violent reversal from the 160 peak — multiple large red candles with expanding volume, the highest in months. On the 1h, the bounce off the open low (~104.50) has stalled and is now flagging in the 107-109 zone with declining volume on the recovery. The last few 1h bars show small bodies and upper wicks, classic exhausted-bounce structure. Price is trading beneath what was the Apr 10-16 breakout shelf (110-112), now acting as overhead resistance.
Flow: Options flow is overwhelmingly bearish — 18 bearish-tagged trades vs 6 bullish, with a net premium sentiment of -$399K. The dominant flow is in May 15 puts at the 110-115 strikes, bought on the ask in size (99, 110, 100 contract blocks), confirming institutional conviction on continued downside. The C/P premium ratio of 0.11 is extremely skewed bearish. IV is elevated (75-90% range across strikes), which argues against buying long premium outright and favors a put spread to neutralize vega while retaining directional exposure.
Plan: Stop is placed above the 112-113 area, which is the gap-fill shelf and former breakout zone — a reclaim there would invalidate the breakdown thesis. Target is the 95 area, which aligns with the pre-April-8 base and offers R/R above 2.5:1. The thesis fails if the broad market reverses hard on a macro catalyst or if RMBS gaps back above the breakdown level on any counter-catalyst.
📍 Entry: 108.5
🛑 Stop: 113.5
🎯 Target: 95
⚖️ R:R: 2.70
Flow: Options flow is overwhelmingly bearish — 18 bearish-tagged trades vs 6 bullish, with a net premium sentiment of -$399K. The dominant flow is in May 15 puts at the 110-115 strikes, bought on the ask in size (99, 110, 100 contract blocks), confirming institutional conviction on continued downside. The C/P premium ratio of 0.11 is extremely skewed bearish. IV is elevated (75-90% range across strikes), which argues against buying long premium outright and favors a put spread to neutralize vega while retaining directional exposure.
Plan: Stop is placed above the 112-113 area, which is the gap-fill shelf and former breakout zone — a reclaim there would invalidate the breakdown thesis. Target is the 95 area, which aligns with the pre-April-8 base and offers R/R above 2.5:1. The thesis fails if the broad market reverses hard on a macro catalyst or if RMBS gaps back above the breakdown level on any counter-catalyst.
📍 Entry: 108.5
🛑 Stop: 113.5
🎯 Target: 95
⚖️ R:R: 2.70
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monk.trade — Trade setups and market intelligence
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.