The 
USDCAD pair has successfully completed a major Liquidity Grab (Buy-Side Liquidity sweep) at the recent highs. In Smart Money Concepts (SMC), this sweep often signals a reversal as institutional orders are filled.
The Structure (Regular Flat): Currently, we are witnessing a corrective structure—specifically an Expanded/Regular Flat. I expect this correction to push slightly higher to mitigate the unmitigated Supply Zone (the grey box) before the bearish impulse resumes.
Trade Plan:
Bias: Bearish / Short
Entry Zone: Watching for rejection inside the supply block around 1.3780 - 1.3800.
Confirmation: Waiting for the completion of the flat pattern and a LTF (Lower Timeframe) shift in structure.
Target: Once the correction is complete, I anticipate a sell-off targeting the internal range liquidity and lower FVGs below 1.3650.
Invalidation: A solid daily close above the sweep high would invalidate this bearish outlook.
Disclaimer: This is just my personal analysis combining Wave Theory and SMC. Manage your risk.
USDCAD pair has successfully completed a major Liquidity Grab (Buy-Side Liquidity sweep) at the recent highs. In Smart Money Concepts (SMC), this sweep often signals a reversal as institutional orders are filled.The Structure (Regular Flat): Currently, we are witnessing a corrective structure—specifically an Expanded/Regular Flat. I expect this correction to push slightly higher to mitigate the unmitigated Supply Zone (the grey box) before the bearish impulse resumes.
Trade Plan:
Bias: Bearish / Short
Entry Zone: Watching for rejection inside the supply block around 1.3780 - 1.3800.
Confirmation: Waiting for the completion of the flat pattern and a LTF (Lower Timeframe) shift in structure.
Target: Once the correction is complete, I anticipate a sell-off targeting the internal range liquidity and lower FVGs below 1.3650.
Invalidation: A solid daily close above the sweep high would invalidate this bearish outlook.
Disclaimer: This is just my personal analysis combining Wave Theory and SMC. Manage your risk.
Giao dịch đang hoạt động
Giao dịch được đóng thủ công
Result: Loss (Early Exit).Reason for Closure: The trade thesis was based on a rejection of the 1.3800 Psychological Resistance combined with an expected pullback in the DXY. However, price action and fundamentals shifted in the New York PM session:
Technical Invalidation: The price closed a 15-minute candle solidly above the 1.3800 - 1.3805 "Hard Deck." Once this key resistance converted to support, the probability of a squeeze to 1.3840 increased significantly. I exited early to save 1% of capital rather than hoping for a reversal that the chart was not showing.
Correlation Breakdown:
DXY (USD): Broke critical intraday resistance at 98.68, confirming a "Risk-Off" USD continuation.
Oil (WTI): Failed to rally, leaving the CAD weak.
Net Result: Strong USD + Weak CAD = High probability of Bullish Continuation.
Conclusion: Better to pay a small "insurance premium" to exit a failing setup than to hold a full risk position against momentum. We wait for the next clear structure.
SMC & Wave Analyst | Funded Trader Visit my official site: mustafijur.com
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.
SMC & Wave Analyst | Funded Trader Visit my official site: mustafijur.com
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.