USDJPY is surging past 156.00 despite the BOJ raising rates to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. This classic "buy the rumour, sell the fact" reaction is fuelled by Governor Ueda's cautious guidance, signalling no rush for further hikes. A lack of commitment to a neutral rate path has kept the carry trade alive.
Key drivers
Technical breakout: USD/JPY has cleared the 156.00 resistance zone, confirming a bullish flag breakout on the daily chart. RSI resetting near 50 supports further upside potential.
Key targets: Immediate focus is on the swing high at 157.00, followed by the 2025 peak at 157.93 and the 138.2% Fibonacci extension at 158.77.
Trade plan: Bias is bullish above 156.00. Look to buy pullbacks into the 156.00–156.20 support zone, targeting 157.00+; invalidation below 155.00.
Are you buying the BOJ breakout? Share your USD/JPY targets in the comments and follow for more central bank and technical trade setups.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Key drivers
- "Dovish hike" Reaction: The BOJ raised rates to 0.75% as priced in, but Governor Ueda emphasized a "data-dependent" approach with "no pre-set path," disappointing hawks hoping for a rapid tightening cycle.
- Neutral rate uncertainty: Ueda admitted it's "challenging to pinpoint" the neutral rate and wants to observe the economy's reaction first, implying a pause that leaves the wide yield gap with the US (3.5%+) intact.
Technical breakout: USD/JPY has cleared the 156.00 resistance zone, confirming a bullish flag breakout on the daily chart. RSI resetting near 50 supports further upside potential.
Key targets: Immediate focus is on the swing high at 157.00, followed by the 2025 peak at 157.93 and the 138.2% Fibonacci extension at 158.77.
Trade plan: Bias is bullish above 156.00. Look to buy pullbacks into the 156.00–156.20 support zone, targeting 157.00+; invalidation below 155.00.
Are you buying the BOJ breakout? Share your USD/JPY targets in the comments and follow for more central bank and technical trade setups.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.