Gold is trading around 3,875 on the H4 chart after a sharp breakdown from the previous range. Price remains inside the descending channel, with the recent recovery failing below the breakdown structure.
Market Drivers
Gold came under strong pressure after September PCE inflation rose 3.6% YoY, while Q3 U.S. GDP expanded 3.4%, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may keep policy restrictive. The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00%, while several officials argued for further tightening. Gold then fell about 3.6% on Friday to around 3,875, its lowest level since October 2025.
Technical
The H4 structure is clearly bearish after price broke below the prior range and continued lower inside the descending channel.
The current rebound is approaching the 3,980.573 Key Breakdown Resistance. This area is the main retest zone. A rejection would keep the downside structure active, while a sustained reclaim would signal that sellers are losing control.
Main Scenario
The main scenario favors a breakdown retest.
If Gold rebounds toward 3,980.573 and sellers defend the zone, another bearish leg could develop toward 3,841.375, followed by the 3,761.115 Major Reaction Support.
Key Zones
3,980.573 — Key Breakdown Resistance
3,841.375 — Breakdown Trigger
3,761.115 — Major Reaction Support
Invalidation
A sustained H4 reclaim above 3,980.573 would weaken the current bearish continuation scenario and suggest a deeper recovery may be developing.
Tiara’s View
The structure remains bearish below 3,980.573. The key question is whether the retest fails and sellers continue toward 3,841 and 3,761. The next major reaction should be watched closely around the lower support zone.
Market Drivers
Gold came under strong pressure after September PCE inflation rose 3.6% YoY, while Q3 U.S. GDP expanded 3.4%, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may keep policy restrictive. The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00%, while several officials argued for further tightening. Gold then fell about 3.6% on Friday to around 3,875, its lowest level since October 2025.
Technical
The H4 structure is clearly bearish after price broke below the prior range and continued lower inside the descending channel.
The current rebound is approaching the 3,980.573 Key Breakdown Resistance. This area is the main retest zone. A rejection would keep the downside structure active, while a sustained reclaim would signal that sellers are losing control.
Main Scenario
The main scenario favors a breakdown retest.
If Gold rebounds toward 3,980.573 and sellers defend the zone, another bearish leg could develop toward 3,841.375, followed by the 3,761.115 Major Reaction Support.
Key Zones
3,980.573 — Key Breakdown Resistance
3,841.375 — Breakdown Trigger
3,761.115 — Major Reaction Support
Invalidation
A sustained H4 reclaim above 3,980.573 would weaken the current bearish continuation scenario and suggest a deeper recovery may be developing.
Tiara’s View
The structure remains bearish below 3,980.573. The key question is whether the retest fails and sellers continue toward 3,841 and 3,761. The next major reaction should be watched closely around the lower support zone.
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🌸Tiara PrimeGold·XAUUSD·Price Action made simple
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Daily analysis update real time London & NY session
t.me/+9K3kUAe9Y0kzYzA1
🔔Follow to learn one new thing every day
Personal analysis only—not financial advice
t.me/+9K3kUAe9Y0kzYzA1
Daily analysis update real time London & NY session
t.me/+9K3kUAe9Y0kzYzA1
🔔Follow to learn one new thing every day
Personal analysis only—not financial advice
Bài đăng liên quan
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.