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Gold Bulls Poised to Launch a New Rally

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Gold surged sharply again after opening today, rebounding to a high near the previous peak of 4140 before facing resistance and pulling back. The trend has now shifted from bearish to bullish. This shift is primarily driven by a confluence of factors: a stream of recent news favorable to gold, market expectations of a low probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike, and the resulting inflow of capital into the asset.

Yesterday, I noted that the upside resistance lay at the $4100 mark; however, gold easily broke through this level today, signaling the start of a new rally. In this type of market environment, the strategy is simply to follow the trend. As I often emphasize: one should short gold when the market is weak and go long when the market is strong. Crucially, one should not attempt to short gold after it has broken to new highs following a rebound.

For today's trading, we need to focus on three points: 1. Look to go long on intraday pullbacks. 2. If gold maintains its strength during the European session, continue to go long during the US session. 3. If prices rise during the Asian and European sessions and show resilience against a decline during the US session, continue to go long the following day.

The key downside level to watch is 4076, which marked the low point after the opening. On the hourly chart, the base of the largest bullish candle sits near 4100—a level that coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement point and serves as a support floor. Meanwhile, the 0.382 retracement level for the move from 4076 to 4142 is located at 4117. Based on this analysis, I believe a pullback to the 4095–4110 range presents a good opportunity to go long. On the upside, watch for resistance in the 4170–4180 range.
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Gold rebounded after retracing to around 4110, and has now risen by nearly 100 points. Those who followed this signal should have profited.
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DONE.

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