After a strong liquidity sweep at the bottom zone and a breakout of the H4 structure, gold is maintaining a controlled recovery state on the H2 frame. The price is forming a series of short-term higher lows – higher highs, moving within an upward channel and continuously supported by the support zones + FVG below.
Currently, the market has re-approached the demand zone + FVG above around 47xx, where significant selling pressure previously appeared. The price reaction here shows a marked slowdown, as the buying force no longer maintains dominance like in the initial breakout phase. This accurately reflects the nature of a rebalancing phase after displacement, where the market needs to re-test supply before deciding the next direction.
Structurally, H2 is leaning towards bullish in the short term, but it should be noted that the entire current upward movement still lies within the context of a larger downtrend on the higher frame. Therefore, the 47xx zone is not only a technical resistance but also a potential area for the redistribution of large capital flows.
The main scenario now revolves around the reaction at the current zone. If the price can accumulate and hold firmly above the 4650–4680 area, the possibility of expanding to the 48xx zone or even higher to the FVG area above is entirely possible. Conversely, if a clear rejection signal appears, the market is likely to return to test the support zones + FVG below around 4550 → 4450, which serve as the price base for the entire recovery phase.
Overall, the market is in a supply testing phase after a strong rise, and the current zone is the decisive point. The recovery phase is still valid, but there is not enough basis to confirm a medium-term reversal — prioritize observing reactions instead of FOMO following the price.
LucasGrayTrading
Currently, the market has re-approached the demand zone + FVG above around 47xx, where significant selling pressure previously appeared. The price reaction here shows a marked slowdown, as the buying force no longer maintains dominance like in the initial breakout phase. This accurately reflects the nature of a rebalancing phase after displacement, where the market needs to re-test supply before deciding the next direction.
Structurally, H2 is leaning towards bullish in the short term, but it should be noted that the entire current upward movement still lies within the context of a larger downtrend on the higher frame. Therefore, the 47xx zone is not only a technical resistance but also a potential area for the redistribution of large capital flows.
The main scenario now revolves around the reaction at the current zone. If the price can accumulate and hold firmly above the 4650–4680 area, the possibility of expanding to the 48xx zone or even higher to the FVG area above is entirely possible. Conversely, if a clear rejection signal appears, the market is likely to return to test the support zones + FVG below around 4550 → 4450, which serve as the price base for the entire recovery phase.
Overall, the market is in a supply testing phase after a strong rise, and the current zone is the decisive point. The recovery phase is still valid, but there is not enough basis to confirm a medium-term reversal — prioritize observing reactions instead of FOMO following the price.
LucasGrayTrading
Giao dịch đang hoạt động
The price has reacted correctly at the demand zone 474x, confirming this as an effective short-term supply zone after the previous upward move. The current reaction shows that selling pressure is beginning to appear as the price hits the decision zone above.The H2 structure is still maintaining a short-term bullish stance, but momentum has noticeably slowed as it approaches the larger demand + FVG zone above. This rejection phase is a reasonable technical reaction after a strong markup phase, while also opening up the possibility for the market to enter a correction phase.
Current scenario:
If the price continues to be rejected at 4720–4750 → high likelihood of returning to test the support + FVG zone 4600 → 4550
If it holds the 4680 zone and creates a higher structure → it can still retest the 48xx zone
Key insight:
The reaction at 474x is the initial step of supply testing, not yet a confirmation of reversal. It is necessary to monitor whether this is a healthy pullback or the beginning of a distribution phase.
Đóng lệnh: đạt mục tiêu
The scenario has executed each step correctly – 1500 pips dropped straight to the lower trendline, the plan is still ACTIVE. The price has confirmed a break below the demand zone, completing the liquidity sweep above at the 4800 zone (demand + H4 trendline), then a strong selling force appeared, pushing the price down ~1500 pips to the 4700 zone, coinciding with the lower trendline in the bearish structure.This development clearly shows:
Pullback → create liquidity → breakdown → continuation of the downtrend
The 4800 zone is just a bull trap, where buyers are drawn into liquidity before the price reverses sharply
Macro news (conflict / Trump) acts as a catalyst, but the technical structure is the main driving factor
Current state:
The price is holding around the 4700 zone, closely following the lower trendline → signs of pausing after a strong decline
The H2 structure continues to maintain lower highs – bearish control
Main scenario (priority):
Wait for the price to retrace back to the 4750–4800 zone (demand + upper trendline) to look for SELL opportunities
Target: 4650 → 4550 (support zones + FVG below)
Alternative scenario:
If the price holds at 4700 and forms an accumulation base → a short-term technical rebound may occur before the trend continues
Key insight:
The entire movement from retest → trap → dump 1500 pips → holding the trendline is a precise sequence of actions according to the plan. The current market does not change bias – it is just moving according to the predetermined money flow logic.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
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High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+cZC_DmEr3OwzOTA1
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.