EURGBP — Descending Triangle Support in Focus !From a broader perspective, EURGBP remains inside a well-respected descending red triangle, which has been defining the market structure for an extended period.
At the moment, price is approaching an important technical area where the lower boundary of the triangle aligns with a strong support & demand zone, creating a high-interest region to monitor.
This confluence becomes especially important because support and structure are lining up at the same location, increasing the probability of a market reaction.
From here, two scenarios become relevant:
→ Bullish scenario:
If price respects the current support and shows signs of rejection, this area may offer an opportunity to look for buy setups, targeting a corrective move higher within the broader structure.
→ Bearish scenario:
If support fails to hold and price breaks below the triangle with confirmation, this could invalidate the short-term bullish idea and increase the probability of continuation toward lower levels.
For now, the key question is:
Will support trigger the next rebound, or is the market preparing for a downside expansion?
This is a scenario-based analysis — not a prediction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for educational purposes only. It reflects personal market observations and does not constitute financial advice or a trading recommendation.
Rayan Nasser
#EURGBP #EUR #GBP #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Trading #MarketStructure #RiskManagement
SPY's Five-Session Standoff Is Over. The Hourly Won...SPY's Five-Session Standoff Is Over. The Hourly Won and the Daily
Just Stopped Arguing.
The cross-timeframe disagreement that defined SPY for the last
week has finally resolved. The Hourly's bear announcement at CQI
68.03 is now 40 bars old, still carrying virtually the same
conviction it had when it fired on June 18. The Daily's 215-bar
bull print at CQI 69.86 is still technically alive, but the
Daily itself has flipped to MEDIUM SHORT thesis with PANIC active,
a PARTIAL signal loaded, NR7 anti-signal firing, and the Short
Score at 1/3. The bull announcement is still there. The Daily has
stopped listening to it. That's the resolution.
Resistance: 736.50-736.87 - nearest overhead
Key resistance: 740.44-742.71 - last week's floor
Current price: 734.77
Support: 732.45 - nearest level below
Key support: 727.0-728.0 - next structural shelf
Thesis line: 721.23 - the broader floor
Two paths from here:
The bearish resolution accelerates: Vol Elev climbs from 34th
on the Hourly on a move lower, the Daily's PARTIAL signal
upgrades, price breaks 732.45. Opens 727-728 and eventually
721.23, the level that's anchored the bottom of every cheat
sheet this cycle.
The resolution was premature: price reclaims 736.50 with volume,
the Daily's bull print reasserts relevance, the PANIC state
clears. Price pushes back into the 740-742 zone. But this would
require the Daily to reverse a MEDIUM SHORT thesis call, a
PARTIAL signal, and an active PANIC state, which is a lot to
unwind.
The Hourly's EXT MODE is active for the first time on SPY this
cycle. That's the same flag that's been running on BTC for over
a week now. Whether SPY follows the same pattern - extended
downside that grinds rather than snaps - carries into the rest
of the week.
---
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. 
Short
Short
BTC's 165-Bar Bear Print Just Got Its Strongest Challenge Yet.BTC's 165-Bar Bear Print Just Got Its Strongest Challenge Yet.
It Is Still Standing.
The bear announcement at CQI 65.59 is now 165 bars old. It has
survived everything this market has thrown at it for nearly two
weeks. But this morning the stack is loading against it harder
than at any point in this cycle. The thesis reads MEDIUM LONG,
Entry Signal has upgraded to PARTIAL, IMP is scoring 2/5 in EXT
mode with Range Expansion and ATR Expansion both flagging YES,
and Vol Elev is at 71st - real participation behind the overnight
bounce from 61,862. DISBELIEF is active on the MIRROR, which
is the system's way of saying: the move is happening but the
conviction engine hasn't confirmed it. The bear print sits there
unchanged while everything around it screams the other direction.
Resistance: 63,625.81-63,796.21 - the shelf that's been
resistance all week
Key resistance: 64,400.89-64,759.19 - the zone above
Current price: 62,484
Support: 62,459.75 - the level right below price
Key support: 61,862.27 - overnight low
Thesis line: 59,073.01 - the Daily low
Two paths from here:
The bear print finally breaks: Vol Elev sustains above 71st,
the PARTIAL signal upgrades, price clears 63,625 with
participation. A fresh bull announcement fires and the 165-bar
bear read gets replaced for the first time. That would be the
most significant conviction flip on BTC in this cycle.
The DISBELIEF is correct: the move fades without a fresh
announcement to back it, Vol Elev drops back, the PARTIAL
signal decays. Price settles back toward 62,459 and the bear
print ages past 170 bars. The EXT MODE flag on the SYNTH Gate
continues to weigh on any recovery.
165 bars without decay is extraordinary. If this print survives
today's challenge with a PARTIAL signal loaded against it,
nothing in this cycle is likely to kill it. If it doesn't, the
flip itself will be the story.
---
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. 
Short
Micron:Profit Target Hit, Earnings Tomorrow; Here Is the Trade!This video contains an analysis of Micron Technology and will present the whole trade setup I put together for 22 June 2026. Shares are up more than 800% in the last 12 months, hit the $1,200 target after signing a deal with Anthropic, and are now heading into quarterly results, 24 June fiscal third quarter – but the volume paints a different picture compared to price action alone. Here is a complete analysis of Micron, in which I will walk you through trading strategy including entry, 3 targets, and stop level. In this video, you can expect three different scenarios going into the earnings release. Whether you are trading stocks or learning technical analysis and earnings risk, you will find this video interesting. 
Long
SPCX: Short-Term Bearish, Bigger BullishNASDAQ:SPCX is still trading inside a bigger bullish context because the bullish WCL remains active . That means the higher-value zone is still below price, and as long as the larger structure is not invalidated, I’m not treating this as a clean bearish trend reversal.
But short term, price is currently moving inside an opposing bearish sequence .
That bearish sequence has a C target that overlaps directly with the bullish WCL zone below. This creates a very important battle area: sellers have a reason to push price lower into C, but buyers also have a strong reason to defend once price reaches the WCL / ABC target overlap.
So my expectation is simple: price may still want to finish the bearish sequence and reach the lower target zone first.
For scalpers, the cleanest short idea is not chasing price here. The better short opportunity is if price pulls back into the bearish OTE + breaker block area. That would be the highest-quality reload zone for sellers inside the active bearish sequence.
But this is where scalpers need discipline.
This is not a short to marry. Below price, we have a strong bullish WCL, ABC target overlap, and potential reaction zone. If price reaches that area with enough momentum and then buyers step in aggressively, we could validate the larger Matryoshka continuation and open the door for a strong bullish expansion toward the upper target.
So the map is:
Bearish short-term sequence → possible move into C / WCL overlap.
Bullish higher-timeframe zone below → possible reaction and Matryoshka validation.
Best scalp short → bearish OTE + breaker only.
Best bullish opportunity → wait for reaction, displacement, and confirmation from the WCL zone.
For now, I’m watching the bearish sequence complete, but I respect the bullish zone below. That’s where the real decision happens.
SmellyTaz — decoding chaos. 
Short
Short 
Ethereum Long-Term Outlook: Potential Correction Toward $1,000–$Ethereum remains under pressure as global macroeconomic conditions continue to challenge risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Several factors may continue to weigh on the market:
• Persistent restrictive monetary policies by major central banks
• Delayed interest rate cuts and the possibility of higher rates for longer
• Ongoing inflationary pressures in the United States and Europe
• Rising geopolitical uncertainty and global market instability
From a technical and liquidity perspective, Ethereum may still be in a broader corrective phase.
Key scenarios:
🔴 Scenario 1:
A significant market reaction could occur around the $1,000 liquidity zone.
🟢 Scenario 2 (Higher Probability):
A deeper correction toward the $700 area.
The $700 region stands out as a major long-term support zone due to the combination of liquidity concentration, historical market structure, and macroeconomic conditions.
In addition, the RSI is showing signs of a potential bullish divergence, suggesting that a long-term bottoming process could develop as price approaches these key demand areas.
It is important to note that these levels are not predictions of certainty but rather potential zones where a major market bottom may form.
Unless there is a meaningful shift in monetary policy or a significant improvement in global economic conditions, the broader outlook for Ethereum remains cautious and bearish into late 2026.
This analysis represents a long-term scenario and should not be considered financial advice.
If you found this analysis useful, feel free to support it with a like and share your thoughts in the comments.
#ETH #ETHUSD #ETHUSDT #Ethereum #Crypto #Cryptocurrency #TechnicalAnalysis #RSI #Liquidity #MacroEconomics #FederalReserve #InterestRates #TradingView 
Short
Coinbase Breaks Below Support as Bearish Wave 5 Gains TractionCoinbase has staged a notable recovery from the 141 low, but the structure of the advance suggests caution is still warranted. The move higher appears to be unfolding in three waves, which is typically characteristic of a corrective rally rather than the start of a new bullish trend.
This interpretation is supported by the preceding decline from the 400 area, which was strong, impulsive, and extended—traits commonly associated with a third-wave decline in Elliott Wave theory. As such, the current recovery may represent a wave four correction within a larger bearish sequence rather than a lasting trend reversal.
The stock has also been testing an important resistance zone between 210 and 250. While price remains within this area, the risk of another bearish turn remains elevated. More recently, Coinbase has broken below the lower trendline support near the 180 level, increasing the probability that wave five lower is now underway.
From a bullish perspective, it is still too early to declare the downtrend complete. A break above 291 would be needed to invalidate the current bearish wave count, as wave four should not overlap with wave one territory. Such a move would signal that the broader bearish trend is likely over and would shift the focus toward buying opportunities on future pullbacks.
Highlights:
Current rally appears corrective and is unfolding in three waves.
Key resistance zone between 210 and 250 remains important.
Break below 180 signals increased risk of bearish continuation.
A move above 291 would provide stronger bullish confirmation. XAUUSD: Final Elliott Wave 5 Is Still in PlayGold is currently moving inside what appears to be the final Elliott wave 5 structure after the recent rejection from the liquidity imbalance zone. From Kelly’s view, the market is still showing downside pressure, but this may be the last bearish leg before a larger corrective recovery begins.
The key point is simple: wave 5 remains valid while price stays below the highest resistance formed at today’s open.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold rejecting from the upper imbalance area and then moving lower through a clear bearish sequence. Price is now trading around 4,195, inside a short-term corrective channel, while the market continues to respect the descending trendline pressure.
The 4,220 area is acting as the nearest resistance and also the zone where wave 5 begins on the chart. If sellers keep defending this area, gold may continue lower towards the Elliott wave end zone near 4,020–4,040.
However, if price breaks above the highest resistance from today’s open, the wave 5 bearish setup would lose quality and the market may need a new interpretation.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,220: wave 5 beginning zone and near-term resistance
◌ 4,195: current reaction area
◌ 4,180: short-term support inside the channel
◌ 4,121: first downside confirmation level
◌ 4,071: deeper reaction support
◌ 4,020–4,040: Elliott wave end zone
◌ Above today’s opening resistance: area where the bearish wave 5 setup fails
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be completing the final part of a bearish 5-wave sequence.
Wave 1 started after the rejection from the liquidity imbalance zone.
Wave 2 corrected higher but failed to reclaim the previous structure.
Wave 3 pushed price sharply lower into the 4,121 region.
Wave 4 developed as a small corrective channel.
Wave 5 may now be preparing to extend lower towards the Elliott wave end zone.
If this count is correct, the next move may still be a final downside sweep before the structure becomes more attractive for a larger corrective rebound.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to stay below the opening resistance and confirm bearish continuation.
Sell reaction zone: 4,195–4,220 if bearish confirmation appears
Stop loss: above the highest resistance from today’s open
Take profit 1: 4,121
Take profit 2: 4,071
Take profit 3: 4,020–4,040
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above today’s opening resistance and holds with strength, the final wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, the bearish count should be reassessed before looking for continuation.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a final-wave structure, not a fresh sell at any price. The downside path is still active, but wave 5 is already late in the sequence, so confirmation matters.
If gold stays below the opening resistance, the market may complete one more downside leg towards the Elliott wave end zone.
Gold is still under pressure.
But if this is truly the final wave 5, the next major reaction may come after the final sweep is complete.
Share your view below.
Short 
XAUUSD — EMA Downtrend Holds, Sell Position Remains Active
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains under pressure as price continues to trade below the main EMA structure. Traders are still watching USD strength, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data.
For now, the technical structure still favours sellers while recovery attempts are rejected from the value sell zone.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, XAUUSD is trading below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. The EMA structure is still pointing lower, showing that the short-term trend remains bearish.
Price recently tested the value range around 4,210 - 4,225 but failed to break higher. This rejection shows that buyers are still weak, while sellers continue to defend the EMA downtrend.
The order sell zone around 4,185 - 4,204 has also reacted well. After touching this area, price rejected and moved lower again, confirming that the sell zone is still valid.
As long as gold stays below 4,204 - 4,225, the bearish continuation setup remains active. The main downside target is the Fibonacci and liquidity convergence zone around 4,066.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 4,177
Order sell zone: 4,185 - 4,204
Value range resistance: 4,210 - 4,225
EMA resistance area: 4,234 - 4,270
Short-term support: 4,140 - 4,120
Fibonacci liquidity target: 4,066 - 4,064
Invalidation area: above 4,225
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,185 - 4,204
Stop Loss: 4,225
Take Profit 1: 4,140
Take Profit 2: 4,100
Take Profit 3: 4,066 - 4,064
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to continue focusing on sell positions while price stays below the value range and EMA resistance.
The sell zone has already reacted well, showing rejection from 4,185 - 4,204. If price retests this area and forms another bearish rejection, the sell continuation setup remains valid.
A break below 4,140 would strengthen bearish momentum and open the way toward 4,100, then the Fibonacci liquidity target around 4,066 - 4,064.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to stay below 4,204.
Look for bearish rejection on any retest.
A break below 4,140 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 4,225, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD trades below EMA 34, EMA 89, EMA 200, and the value range resistance. The sell zone has already rejected price, so the preferred plan is to continue focusing on bearish continuation toward 4,140, 4,100, and 4,066.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for another retest of the order sell zone?
Short 
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK – DECISION ZONE APPROACHINGNIFTY 50 – MOMENTUM SLOWS NEAR RESISTANCE
Nifty closed at 24,013, up 391 points from the previous week's close.
Weekly High: 24,189 Weekly Low: 23,817
Once again, Nifty respected my projected range of 24,200–23,150. However, this week the index failed to deliver the strong closing I was looking for and has formed an Evening Star-type structure on the weekly chart, suggesting that momentum may be slowing near resistance and bulls may require stronger participation to continue the recovery.
Nifty Bull Trigger
👉 Sustained trade above 24,189
If achieved, Nifty can move higher toward:
24,322
24,550
A strong weekly close above these levels would significantly improve the higher-timeframe structure and strengthen the case for a move toward higher zones.
Key Support
👉 Below this week's low of 23,817
Bears may attempt to fill the recent gap and retest:
23,600
23,500
Expected Range Next Week
👉 24,550 – 23,600
A breakout or breakdown from this range can bring significant momentum and some fireworks on either side.
BANK NIFTY – STILL LEADING, BUT MOMENTUM COOLING
Bank Nifty closed at 57,685, up around 900 points from the previous week's close.
Bank Nifty continues to be the primary driver of the ongoing recovery, but this week's candle suggests that momentum may be cooling near resistance levels.
Key Levels
👉 Sustain above 58,200
or
👉 Deliver a strong weekly close above 57,800
If achieved, the next upside levels become:
58,950
Higher resistance zones thereafter
Expected Range
58,950 – 56,450
A decisive break on either side can lead to a fast directional move.
TACTICAL VIEW
Current market structure suggests heightened volatility around the middle of the week.
My expectation remains:
25th June Higher probability of a weak/gap-down start
26th June Higher probability of a recovery-led/gap-up opening
These are probability-based expectations derived from current structure and positioning, not certainty. Traders should remain flexible and let price action confirm the move.
S&P 500 – APPROACHING A CRITICAL ZONE
S&P 500 closed at 7,500, around 70 points higher than the previous week's close.
The index remains strong, but it is now approaching an important decision point.
Bullish Trigger
Sustain above 7,585 or deliver a strong weekly close above it
If achieved, the next upside levels are:
7,697 (Important Fibonacci Level)
7,812
7,885
Bearish Scenario
Failure to reclaim and sustain above resistance may lead to the formation of an M-pattern, which is generally considered bearish in nature.
That could provide bears an opportunity to retest lower levels and re-enter the game.
FINAL VIEW
* Nifty: Momentum slowing near resistance
* Bank Nifty: Still leading the recovery
* S&P500: At a critical breakout zone
* Market Structure: Compression before expansion
Markets are approaching a decision zone.
The range is narrowing, volatility is compressing, and the next breakout may be stronger than most expect.
For now:
👉 Respect levels
👉 Stay flexible
👉 Let price confirm the story AUDCAD | Inflation Supports CAD — Sell Setup Ahead?Recent Canadian inflation data came in stronger than expected, with annual CPI accelerating to 3.2% from 2.8%, while monthly inflation also exceeded expectations. Higher inflation tends to reduce expectations for near-term easing and may provide short-term support to the Canadian Dollar.
From a technical perspective, AUDCAD remains in a broader bullish structure, but price is now approaching an important decision zone.
Price is currently sitting inside a strong supply and resistance area, where the market has rejected multiple times recently — making this region especially interesting to monitor.
In addition, a bearish divergence appears to be developing, suggesting that bullish momentum may be weakening and adding further confluence to the bearish scenario.
From here, two scenarios become relevant:
→ Bearish scenario:
If resistance continues holding and sellers regain control, we may see a bearish rotation supported by stronger CAD sentiment. In this case, downside movement could extend toward the lower boundary of the bullish channel, and if broken downward, focus shifts toward the blue support zone.
→ Bullish scenario:
If price manages to break above the current resistance with convincing momentum and sustain acceptance above the supply area, this may invalidate the short-term bearish thesis and support continuation of the broader bullish trend.
For now, the key question is:
Will CAD strength and divergence trigger a rejection, or will buyers break resistance and continue higher?
This is a scenario-based analysis — not a prediction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for educational purposes only. It reflects personal market observations and does not constitute financial advice or a trading recommendation.
Rayan Nasser
#AUDCAD #AUD #CAD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Inflation #Trading #RiskManagement Mercedes-Benz Group — Channel Support Under PressureFrom a broader perspective, Mercedes-Benz Group remains in a bearish market structure, continuing to trade inside a descending channel that currently defines the overall directional bias.
At the moment, price is sitting around an important technical area where the lower boundary of the bearish channel aligns with a strong support zone — creating a decisive region that may influence the next directional move.
This area becomes especially interesting because support and channel structure are converging, increasing the probability of a market reaction.
From here, two scenarios become relevant:
→ Bullish corrective scenario:
If price respects the current support and shows signs of rejection, we may see a corrective move higher within the descending channel before the broader trend is reassessed.
→ Bearish continuation scenario:
If support fails to hold and price breaks below the current area with confirmation, further downside may become more probable, with attention shifting toward the next major support zone.
At this stage, the focus is not on predicting a reversal but on observing how price behaves around this decisive location.
For now, the key question is:
Will support trigger a corrective rebound, or will sellers push price toward the next support level?
This is a scenario-based analysis — not a prediction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for educational purposes only. It reflects personal market observations and does not constitute financial advice or a trading recommendation.
Rayan Nasser
#MercedesBenz #Stocks #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Investing #StockMarket #MarketStructure #RiskManagement
Long
