XAUUSD 1H — Bearish Shift, Downside ContinuationThe 1H chart shows a clear change in market structure. Gold previously maintained a strong bullish sequence with multiple BOS formations, but after rejecting the 4,670–4,680 FVG, price formed a CHoCH around 4,600, indicating that bullish momentum has weakened and sellers are gaining control.
📊 Technical Analysis
Current price: ~4,602
Major resistance / supply: 4,650–4,680
Key structure level: 4,600
Near-term support / FVG: 4,550–4,560
Major downside FVG: 4,485–4,515
Price is currently sitting around the 4,600 structural level. A sustained 1H close below this area would strengthen the bearish scenario and could open the way toward the lower FVG zones.
🔴 Bearish Setup
Sell Entry Zone: 4,595–4,605
Prefer confirmation with a 1H candle closing below 4,600 or a bearish retest of the broken level.
Stop Loss: 4,635–4,645
Take Profit 1: 4,560
Take Profit 2: 4,515
Take Profit 3: 4,485
⚠️ Invalidation
If price reclaims 4,635–4,645 and especially breaks back above 4,650, the immediate bearish setup becomes weaker. A sustained move above the upper FVG around 4,680 would invalidate the current bearish structure.
🎯 Market Bias
Bearish below 4,600–4,605.
The chart suggests a potential continuation lower toward 4,560, followed by the larger 4,485–4,515 FVG if selling pressure remains strong. EUR/USD - Bearish Scenario long termCurrently on EUR/USD, starting from the 12-MONTH timeframe and looking only at the price action of the latest candle, we can see the formation of a Doji. However, there are still around four months left before the yearly candle closes, so we cannot draw any conclusions too quickly.
Moving down to the MONTHLY timeframe, price is currently testing a bearish trendline, just below a resistance level.
My view is that EUR/USD will remain between the 1.15500 and 1.18000 levels until the end of the year. If this scenario plays out, we will most likely confirm the Doji on the 12-MONTH timeframe, which could give us a strong bearish indication for the following year.
For now, I will monitor the price action on the MONTHLY timeframe to see how the next candles close.
Over the coming weeks, I will probably look for trading opportunities that, in any case, remain within the price range mentioned above.
XAUUSD — 4,643 Trap or 4,553 Sweep? Gold is now trading inside XAUUSD — 4,643 Trap or 4,553 Sweep?
Gold is now trading inside a very sensitive compression area.
After the strong bullish run, price is no longer expanding cleanly. The market is now moving between the short-term uptrend support and the descending resistance line.
This is where the next move can become sharp.
The simple read
Gold is currently trading around 4,620 - 4,630.
The first resistance to watch is 4,643.
This area is marked as the Sell Zone / Liquidity Zone and also sits near the short-term downtrend pressure.
If gold pushes into 4,643 and rejects, sellers may try to push price lower toward 4,598 and 4,553.
The 4,553 area is the main downside target zone on the chart.
But if gold breaks and holds above 4,643, the bearish pressure becomes weaker and price may retest 4,670.
Key price zones
Current price area: 4,620 - 4,630
Sell liquidity zone: 4,643
Short-term resistance: 4,670
First downside reaction: 4,598
Main downside target: 4,553
Bullish pressure improves above: 4,643
Bearish pressure increases below: 4,620
Trading plan
Sell reaction scenario
If gold reaches 4,643 and rejects:
This can become the cleanest short-term resistance reaction.
Price may rotate lower toward 4,598 first.
If sellers keep control, 4,553 becomes the next major target zone.
Breakdown scenario
If gold breaks below the uptrend support:
The correction structure becomes stronger.
I will watch for continuation pressure toward 4,598 and 4,553.
Recovery scenario
If gold breaks and holds above 4,643:
The sell setup becomes weaker.
Gold may try to recover toward 4,670 before choosing the next direction.
Tiara’s View
Gold is not in a clean chase zone now.
The market is compressed between support and resistance.
4,643 is the trap zone above.
4,620 is the pressure line below.
4,553 is the main downside target if sellers win this structure.
The clean plan is simple:
Do not chase the middle.
Wait for 4,643 reaction.
Or wait for support breakdown confirmation.
Reaction first.
Confirmation second.
Trade last.
No confirmation = no trade.
Do you think gold will reject from 4,643, or break higher before the next move
Gold is now trading inside a very sensitive compression area.
After the strong bullish run, price is no longer expanding cleanly. The market is now moving between the short-term uptrend support and the descending resistance line.
This is where the next move can become sharp.
The simple read
Gold is currently trading around 4,620 - 4,630.
The first resistance to watch is 4,643.
This area is marked as the Sell Zone / Liquidity Zone and also sits near the short-term downtrend pressure.
If gold pushes into 4,643 and rejects, sellers may try to push price lower toward 4,598 and 4,553.
The 4,553 area is the main downside target zone on the chart.
But if gold breaks and holds above 4,643, the bearish pressure becomes weaker and price may retest 4,670.
Key price zones
Current price area: 4,620 - 4,630
Sell liquidity zone: 4,643
Short-term resistance: 4,670
First downside reaction: 4,598
Main downside target: 4,553
Bullish pressure improves above: 4,643
Bearish pressure increases below: 4,620
Trading plan
Sell reaction scenario
If gold reaches 4,643 and rejects:
This can become the cleanest short-term resistance reaction.
Price may rotate lower toward 4,598 first.
If sellers keep control, 4,553 becomes the next major target zone.
Breakdown scenario
If gold breaks below the uptrend support:
The correction structure becomes stronger.
I will watch for continuation pressure toward 4,598 and 4,553.
Recovery scenario
If gold breaks and holds above 4,643:
The sell setup becomes weaker.
Gold may try to recover toward 4,670 before choosing the next direction.
Tiara’s View
Gold is not in a clean chase zone now.
The market is compressed between support and resistance.
4,643 is the trap zone above.
4,620 is the pressure line below.
4,553 is the main downside target if sellers win this structure.
The clean plan is simple:
Do not chase the middle.
Wait for 4,643 reaction.
Or wait for support breakdown confirmation.
Reaction first.
Confirmation second.
Trade last.
No confirmation = no trade.
Do you think gold will reject from 4,643, or break higher before the next move? 
Short
GBPJPY 1H — Rising Wedge, RSI Divergence & Demand Zone ReactionThe GBPJPY 1H chart remains structurally bullish overall, with price previously confirming multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) and forming a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
At the current area, however, price is trading inside a Rising Wedge near the recent highs. At the same time, the RSI is showing a potential bearish divergence, where price has pushed higher while momentum has not confirmed the move. This may indicate weakening bullish momentum.
🔍 Key Technical Areas
🔹 Upper Demand Zone:
The first area to monitor if price breaks down from the wedge. A reaction from this zone could support a continuation toward the recent highs.
🔹 Lower Demand Zone:
If the first demand zone fails to hold, the broader lower demand area becomes the next important structure zone to watch for potential buyer reaction.
🔹 Bullish Scenario:
A sustained move above the wedge resistance and recent high could indicate continuation of the existing bullish structure.
🔹 Corrective Scenario:
A breakdown from the Rising Wedge could lead to a retracement toward the marked demand zones before the market establishes its next directional move.
⚠️ Conclusion
The chart currently presents two possible scenarios: continuation after a breakout, or a corrective pullback into demand. Confirmation through price action, market structure, and momentum may provide additional context before assessing the next move.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and represents a technical chart observation, not financial advice. XAUUSD 15M | Key Decision Zones: 15M OB, PDH & 4H FVGXAUUSD is currently trading around a key short-term decision area after a sharp displacement and market structure shift. The chart shows multiple liquidity and imbalance zones that may influence the next move.
🔹 15M Order Block: Around the 4,658–4,668 area, aligning with a major supply/decision zone.
🔹 PDH: 4,676.72 remains an important external liquidity reference above.
🔹 Sell-Side Liquidity: The 4,650 region is a key level to monitor for a liquidity sweep and reaction.
🔹 Current Demand / 15M OB: The 4,600–4,610 area is an important lower decision zone, supported by a nearby 15M FVG.
📈 Bullish Scenario
If price holds above the current demand area and reclaims nearby short-term structure, the market could revisit the 15M imbalance and order block around 4,658–4,668. A sustained move above that area would bring PDH at 4,676.72 into focus.
📉 Bearish Scenario
If the upside retracement fails and sellers regain control, price may revisit the 4,600 area first. A decisive acceptance below this zone could expose the larger 4H FVG near 4,564.15, followed by the broader 4H order block below.
⚠️ Key idea: The next directional move may depend on how price reacts at the marked 15M order block and liquidity zones. Rather than anticipating direction, it may be useful to wait for confirmation through price action and market structure.
This analysis is for educational purposes and reflects a technical market scenario, not financial advice. 📊 Short 
Long
XAUUSD – Bearish Wave Toward 4,500
Gold is showing a short-term bearish Elliott Wave structure after failing to extend higher from the recent top. From Kelly’s view, price is now reacting under the wave 3 sell zone, which keeps the downside scenario active. If sellers stay in control, gold could continue lower, first into the liquidity buy zone, then deeper toward the end wave 5 area.
⟡ Market Structure
The current structure suggests gold may be building a fresh downside leg after the rejection near the upper resistance area. Price is now trading around 4,631, while the chart still shows pressure below the 4,638–4,646 sell zone.
As long as gold remains below this zone, the bearish wave sequence stays valid. The first area to watch on the downside is the dotted support near 4,595. If that level gives way, price may continue toward the 4,565–4,578 liquidity zone, where a short corrective bounce could appear before the next leg down.
If the bearish structure continues cleanly, the final downside target remains the 4,498–4,505 end wave 5 zone.
➤ Key Levels
◌ Current price: 4,631
◌ Sell zone wave 3: 4,638–4,646
◌ Intermediate support: 4,595
◌ Buy zone liquidity: 4,565–4,578
◌ End wave 5 target: 4,498–4,505
⌁ Trading Scenario
Primary bearish scenario
Entry: Sell around 4,638–4,646
Stop Loss: Above 4,655
Take Profit 1: 4,595
Take Profit 2: 4,565–4,578
Take Profit 3: 4,498–4,505
This setup follows the idea that gold is still moving inside a bearish wave sequence. A break below 4,595 would strengthen the move toward the lower liquidity area, and a deeper selloff could complete wave 5 near 4,500.
◌ Invalidation
The bearish view becomes weaker if gold reclaims and holds above 4,646–4,655, because that would suggest the current wave-down structure is failing and buyers are regaining control.
▸ Final View
For now, Kelly’s preferred view stays bearish. Gold is still trading under the wave 3 sell zone, so the path of least resistance remains lower unless buyers can reclaim resistance. The cleaner plan is to watch for rejection around the sell zone, then follow the move toward 4,595, 4,565–4,578, and potentially 4,498–4,505.
Do you think gold will complete wave 5 this week, or will buyers defend the liquidity zone first? Short 
Long 
Long
Bearish Scenario short term - USD/CHFOn the MONTHLY timeframe, we are currently in a retracement phase within a bearish channel. Therefore, in the long term, I expect bullish strength in USD/CHF.
In the short term, however, looking at the DAILY timeframe, we are in a bullish trend and channel, which could potentially have a final target around 0.84000.
At the moment, though, the DAILY is in a retracement phase. Therefore, I am waiting for price action confirmation, starting with the 2-WEEK candle close. After that, I will move down to the DAILY / 3-DAY timeframes to look for confirmation closes for a possible short towards 0.79800.
Long
BTC Is Consolidating At 78,500, Holding The Shelf.BTC Is Consolidating At 78,500, Holding The Shelf.
BTC continues to consolidate below its 81,265 high, trading 78,560 and holding the 78,028 shelf. The melt-up has paused but not reversed - this is the longest breather since the breakout, with the surface cooling but the shelf intact. Still no real pullback, just a stall at extreme highs. The read holds: respect the trend, watch for the first pullback, do not chase. 78,028 is the line. Neutral.
Resistance: 79,318 - first level overhead
Key resistance: 81,265 - the high
Current price: 78,560
Support: 78,028 - the shelf holding it
Key support: 76,237 - the deeper shelf
Structural floor: 74,182 - first real pullback level
Two paths from here:
It holds 78,028 and pushes back to the high. A consolidation that holds its shelf can resolve up and retest 81,265. Momentum this strong often digests sideways before continuing.
It loses 78,028 and the first pullback begins. A close below the shelf opens 76,237, then 74,182 - the first real pullback and the first place to assess. The longer the stall, the more likely the shake.
BTC is stalling at 78,500, holding 78,028 below its high. Holding the shelf keeps the melt-up alive; losing it starts the pullback the extended tape has been waiting for. Respect, not chase - unchanged.
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Study, not financial advice. NVDA Firmed To 213.55 - Earnings Tonight.NVDA Firmed To 213.55 - Earnings Tonight.
NVDA bounced further to 213.55, just under the 214.58 shelf, firming into the event that decides everything: earnings tonight, after the close. The stock has recovered off the 207 lows but remains below its broken levels, and no chart read survives the report. This is the binary the whole week has pointed at. Hold and watch - the reaction, not the setup, writes the next chapter. Neutral.
Resistance: 214.58 - the shelf just overhead
Key resistance: 217.73 - the broken level above
Current price: 213.55
Support: 210.11 - first support
Key support: 207.59 - the recent low
Structural floor: 204.82 - deeper support
Two paths from here:
The report gaps it up. A strong print snaps NVDA back through 214.58 and toward 217.73, reversing the breakdown in one move. Earnings can erase weeks of chart damage instantly.
The report gaps it down. A weak print with the stock still below its broken levels opens 207.59 and 204.82 fast. The pre-earnings bounce becomes a lower high.
NVDA firmed into tonight's earnings, but the report is the whole story - it can gap through every level here. No lean into the binary; let the reaction set the read. Tonight decides it, not the chart.
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Study, not financial advice. Long 
Long
