BTCUSD: Bitcoin Sinks 7% in October as Historically Strong Month Fails to Deliver

November opens with a modest recovery, but Binance’s reopening and heavy ETF withdrawals leave crypto traders watching confidence and capital flows.

📉 “Uptober” ends with another monthly loss

• Bitcoin fell roughly 7.3% in October, ending a three-month winning streak and disappointing traders counting on its historically favorable seasonality.
• It marked a second consecutive losing October, following a roughly 4% decline in 2025. The calendar offered encouragement; the market delivered something considerably less festive.
• The “Uptober” nickname has some historical backing. Bitcoin posted gains in 10 of the 13 Octobers from 2013 through 2025. This year’s decline reinforces the limitation: a seasonal tendency can provide context, but it cannot offset deteriorating sentiment or an exchange security crisis.
• Bitcoin recovered toward $78,500 early Monday, offering some relief after last week’s selloff. It remains below the round-number $80,000 mark, a useful reference for the recovery attempt.

🔐 Binance reopens, customer trust gets tested

• Binance resumed withdrawals in phases Sunday after the $6.3 billion theft. The exchange said it had replaced approximately $6 billion of stolen crypto using company resources.
• Customers withdrew a net $3.64 billion following the reopening, equivalent to roughly 2.1% of Binance’s reported assets. The exchange said withdrawals were stabilizing and deposits remained substantial.
• The remaining 5% of replacement assets involves less-liquid tokens, which Binance said could take longer to source. The FBI attributed the attack to North Korea’s TraderTraitor unit. For traders, further withdrawal access and verified reserve updates remain key developments alongside the investigation.

💸 ETF demand and macro return to focus

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643 million in net outflows Friday, their largest daily withdrawal since June 25. That left the week with $202 million in net outflows.
• Ether also faces a demanding recovery. It traded around $2,300 early Monday, while US spot Ether ETFs lost $155.9 million Friday and $431.5 million over the week. The pressure across both major ETF markets suggests the confidence test extends beyond Bitcoin and Binance’s own ecosystem.
• This week’s macro calendar adds potential volatility: US manufacturing data Monday, midterm elections Tuesday and payrolls Friday.
• Crypto traders will also watch bond yields and broader technology sentiment. A sustained recovery would be more convincing with improving ETF flows and calmer exchange withdrawals alongside stronger prices.