EUR/USD: Euro Slides to 10-Week Low Near $1.1430 as Traders Favor US Dollar Above All

Pair has erased roughly 280 pips in a month as the Federal Reserve’s renewed tightening campaign, resilient US growth and Europe’s greater exposure to the energy shock strengthen the dollar.

💶 Euro loses 280 pips in a month

• EURUSD fell toward $1.1430 Wednesday, marking its weakest level in 10 weeks. The pair has dropped roughly 280 pips, or 2.4%, over the past month. Put simply, one euro now buys nearly three US cents less than it did around the August peak.
• The decline has been unusually orderly, reflecting a gradual rebuilding of long-dollar positions rather than a single panic-driven move. The dollar index recently touched a seven-week high above 100.60 as traders reassessed how far US interest rates may still need to rise.
• That adjustment followed the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point increase to a 3.75%–4.00% range.
• Markets now assign approximately a 53% probability to another hike at the Fed’s next meeting — a sharp change from the rate-cut expectations that dominated earlier in the year.

🏦 Across the Atlantic

• The European Central Bank has also raised rates, taking its deposit rate to 2.50%, but officials are pushing back against assumptions that expensive energy automatically requires aggressive tightening.
• Vice President Boris Vujcic noted that persistent energy costs can eventually weaken consumption and economic growth.
• At the same time, higher US rates improve the yield available on dollar assets, while higher European rates may arrive alongside weaker growth.
• The euro therefore receives less support from ECB tightening than the dollar gets from a Federal Reserve hike backed by a resilient economy.

📊 $1.1400 becomes the next test

• The immediate support zone is $1.1400–$1.1380, which combines a major psychological level with the area around July’s lows. A decisive daily close beneath it would confirm another bearish breakdown and expose $1.1300, followed by the broader $1.1200 region.
• Initial resistance sits at $1.1500, where a recovery would begin to repair the short-term picture. Above that, traders should watch $1.1550 and $1.1600. Unless euro-dollar can reclaim those former support levels, rallies may continue to attract sellers rather than signal a lasting reversal.
• Oil remains an important secondary driver. Europe is a major energy importer, while the US is a net exporter, meaning supply disruptions can worsen Europe’s trade position while supporting the dollar.
• A durable reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could narrow that disadvantage, but the Fed–ECB policy gap remains the larger obstacle.