Cập nhật
CKD - Conformal Kernel Direction
CKD - Conformal Kernel Direction is a clean trend-direction tool. Main timeframe: 4H.
WHAT IT IS
CKD answers one question: which way is the market moving right now? No entries, targets or stops. Just a smooth direction line, an adaptive channel and a clear marker (with price) where the direction flips.
HOW IT WORKS
1. Smooth line. Recent closes are averaged with a Gaussian kernel: the newest candles count most, older ones fade out. Much smoother than a regular moving average.
2. Less lag. The line is projected one bar forward from its own recent slope, so it reacts faster than a normal kernel or MA.
3. Self-calibrating channel (conformal prediction). CKD tracks how far price strayed from its own forecast over the last 150 candles and sizes the channel to hold about 90% of normal moves. Nothing is hand-set: the channel widens in volatile markets and tightens in calm ones.
4. Direction flips. The direction changes only when a candle CLOSES outside the channel on the opposite side. Noise inside the channel is ignored, so sideways markets don't cause constant flipping, while real breakouts are caught on the candle they happen.
WHY 4H
Default settings are tuned for 4H, where swings are clean and flips are rare enough to mean something. Other timeframes work, but treat them as experimental and adjust the settings.
CHARACTERISTICS
- Direction and flip markers are evaluated on confirmed (closed) candles.
- The channel is calibrated only from forecast errors of earlier, closed candles.
- Uses only the chart's own symbol and timeframe; no higher-timeframe requests.
- Early history depends on how much data the chart loads; after the first flip the direction is consistent.
- Works on any symbol; label prices use the symbol's own tick precision.
HOW TO READ IT
- Cyan = direction up, magenta = direction down (the colour blends smoothly on change).
- UP / DOWN + price = the confirmed candle where the direction flipped and its closing price.
- Wide channel = volatile market, narrow channel = calm market.
- Alerts: Direction up, Direction down, Any flip. Use "Once Per Bar Close".
SETTINGS
- Kernel lookback / bandwidth: smoothness of the line.
- Channel miscoverage alpha: lower = wider channel, fewer and later flips; higher = more sensitive.
- Colours, channel transparency, candle colouring and flip markers can all be changed or turned off.
IMPORTANT
The ~90% channel coverage is a statistical calibration target, NOT a win rate. CKD shows direction; it is not a complete trading system and does not guarantee profits. Use it as context together with your own analysis and risk management. Not financial advice.
(c) 2026 builtbyuba. Licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/).
WHAT IT IS
CKD answers one question: which way is the market moving right now? No entries, targets or stops. Just a smooth direction line, an adaptive channel and a clear marker (with price) where the direction flips.
HOW IT WORKS
1. Smooth line. Recent closes are averaged with a Gaussian kernel: the newest candles count most, older ones fade out. Much smoother than a regular moving average.
2. Less lag. The line is projected one bar forward from its own recent slope, so it reacts faster than a normal kernel or MA.
3. Self-calibrating channel (conformal prediction). CKD tracks how far price strayed from its own forecast over the last 150 candles and sizes the channel to hold about 90% of normal moves. Nothing is hand-set: the channel widens in volatile markets and tightens in calm ones.
4. Direction flips. The direction changes only when a candle CLOSES outside the channel on the opposite side. Noise inside the channel is ignored, so sideways markets don't cause constant flipping, while real breakouts are caught on the candle they happen.
WHY 4H
Default settings are tuned for 4H, where swings are clean and flips are rare enough to mean something. Other timeframes work, but treat them as experimental and adjust the settings.
CHARACTERISTICS
- Direction and flip markers are evaluated on confirmed (closed) candles.
- The channel is calibrated only from forecast errors of earlier, closed candles.
- Uses only the chart's own symbol and timeframe; no higher-timeframe requests.
- Early history depends on how much data the chart loads; after the first flip the direction is consistent.
- Works on any symbol; label prices use the symbol's own tick precision.
HOW TO READ IT
- Cyan = direction up, magenta = direction down (the colour blends smoothly on change).
- UP / DOWN + price = the confirmed candle where the direction flipped and its closing price.
- Wide channel = volatile market, narrow channel = calm market.
- Alerts: Direction up, Direction down, Any flip. Use "Once Per Bar Close".
SETTINGS
- Kernel lookback / bandwidth: smoothness of the line.
- Channel miscoverage alpha: lower = wider channel, fewer and later flips; higher = more sensitive.
- Colours, channel transparency, candle colouring and flip markers can all be changed or turned off.
IMPORTANT
The ~90% channel coverage is a statistical calibration target, NOT a win rate. CKD shows direction; it is not a complete trading system and does not guarantee profits. Use it as context together with your own analysis and risk management. Not financial advice.
(c) 2026 builtbyuba. Licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/).
Phát hành các Ghi chú
Updated the publication chart to show CKD on ETHUSDT, 4H, using the dark theme. The view shows an UP-to-DOWN transition followed by a sustained downward trend, with the direction line, adaptive channel and confirmed flip marker visible.No calculation or signal logic has changed. A source comment was clarified to describe closed-bar evaluation without making an absolute repainting claim.
Phát hành các Ghi chú
v1.1 - New Mode setting- Added a "Mode" option in the settings:
- Responsive (new default): a quicker line with a wider channel, so direction flips appear a little earlier.
- Stable: the original v1.0 behaviour, calmer with slightly fewer quick reversals.
- Switch between them anytime in Settings > Direction model > Mode.
- Code comments cleaned up. Visuals, colours, alerts and labels are unchanged.
Thank you all for the kind feedback!
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.