Nambou Gap Fill Odds: Will Today's Gap Fill?
"Gaps always fill" is one of the oldest lines in trading, and it's only half true. Small gaps usually do. Big ones mostly don't. Gap Fill Odds puts a number on it for your market, live, from the open to the close 📡
🎯 What it does
At the open, Gap Fill Odds measures the gap between today's open and yesterday's close in average daily ranges, and shows how often gaps that size filled the same session on your chart. Then it keeps updating through the day: the odds that price gets back to yesterday's close before the session ends.
The live odds come from three things: the gap's size, the time since the open, and how far price has run from yesterday's close. Distance from the close turned out to matter most. Across 21,800 gap days on 45 US indices, ETFs and stocks, it was the input that did the most to improve on the simple guess.
👀 What you see on the chart
Every session's gap as a box from yesterday's close to the open, green if it filled the same session and grey if it didn't, with its size and the odds it had at the open: "gap 0.51 · FILL 29% ✓ filled in 15 min".
A ✓ on the bar where price got back to yesterday's close.
For today: a dashed line at yesterday's close with the live odds ("FILL 74%"), and a dotted line at the time by which half of this chart's filled gaps of that size had filled.
On futures before the cash open: a pre-open preview, "FILL 74% if it opened here", from where price is trading now.
The odds at the first bar of the day that reaches 80% are marked as a call. Right calls turn green after the close, wrong ones grey.
📊 The honest table
The fill rate by gap size on your chart, from under 0.1 of a daily range to over 1. On ES1! 30m in the picture: 93% of the smallest gaps filled the same session, 53% of mid-sized ones and 17% of the biggest.
"Right on past bars": how often the side the odds favoured happened, next to "gap + time alone", a guess from only the gap's size and the time of day. On ES1! 30m: 86% against 76%. NQ1! 30m: 90% against 80%. SPY 15m: 84% against 77%. NVDA 15m: 90% against 81%.
Every day is scored only with the days before it, so the score never uses information that wasn't available at the time.
Across the 45 US instruments, fill calls at 80% or more were right 87% of the time.
🔔 Alerts
Create an alert on the indicator with "Any alert() function call" to get a message when a fill is called and when the gap fills. Each can be switched on or off in the settings.
⚙️ Settings worth knowing
"Session": US regular hours (09:30 to 16:00 New York) by default, which is the gap NQ, ES and US stock traders mean. On 24-hour futures, use a 30-minute or lower chart so the open is exact. "Symbol's daily session" measures each daily session's open against the previous close instead, for other markets.
"Call it when the odds reach" (80 by default) sets the level for the marks and alerts.
"Fewest past days behind a number" (20 by default): with fewer similar days, the odds fall back to a wider situation.
"Sessions in the average range" (14 by default) sets the yardstick for gap sizes and distances.
⚠️ Worth knowing
A gap counts as filled when price trades back to yesterday's close during the session. Touching it is enough.
The live odds move while a bar is still open. Calls, marks and alerts only happen on closed bars, so nothing repaints.
The odds describe this chart's history, not a promise about today. An 80% call is wrong one time in five, and the grey marks show exactly when.
This is a charting tool, not financial advice.
🎯 What it does
At the open, Gap Fill Odds measures the gap between today's open and yesterday's close in average daily ranges, and shows how often gaps that size filled the same session on your chart. Then it keeps updating through the day: the odds that price gets back to yesterday's close before the session ends.
The live odds come from three things: the gap's size, the time since the open, and how far price has run from yesterday's close. Distance from the close turned out to matter most. Across 21,800 gap days on 45 US indices, ETFs and stocks, it was the input that did the most to improve on the simple guess.
👀 What you see on the chart
Every session's gap as a box from yesterday's close to the open, green if it filled the same session and grey if it didn't, with its size and the odds it had at the open: "gap 0.51 · FILL 29% ✓ filled in 15 min".
A ✓ on the bar where price got back to yesterday's close.
For today: a dashed line at yesterday's close with the live odds ("FILL 74%"), and a dotted line at the time by which half of this chart's filled gaps of that size had filled.
On futures before the cash open: a pre-open preview, "FILL 74% if it opened here", from where price is trading now.
The odds at the first bar of the day that reaches 80% are marked as a call. Right calls turn green after the close, wrong ones grey.
📊 The honest table
The fill rate by gap size on your chart, from under 0.1 of a daily range to over 1. On ES1! 30m in the picture: 93% of the smallest gaps filled the same session, 53% of mid-sized ones and 17% of the biggest.
"Right on past bars": how often the side the odds favoured happened, next to "gap + time alone", a guess from only the gap's size and the time of day. On ES1! 30m: 86% against 76%. NQ1! 30m: 90% against 80%. SPY 15m: 84% against 77%. NVDA 15m: 90% against 81%.
Every day is scored only with the days before it, so the score never uses information that wasn't available at the time.
Across the 45 US instruments, fill calls at 80% or more were right 87% of the time.
🔔 Alerts
Create an alert on the indicator with "Any alert() function call" to get a message when a fill is called and when the gap fills. Each can be switched on or off in the settings.
⚙️ Settings worth knowing
"Session": US regular hours (09:30 to 16:00 New York) by default, which is the gap NQ, ES and US stock traders mean. On 24-hour futures, use a 30-minute or lower chart so the open is exact. "Symbol's daily session" measures each daily session's open against the previous close instead, for other markets.
"Call it when the odds reach" (80 by default) sets the level for the marks and alerts.
"Fewest past days behind a number" (20 by default): with fewer similar days, the odds fall back to a wider situation.
"Sessions in the average range" (14 by default) sets the yardstick for gap sizes and distances.
⚠️ Worth knowing
A gap counts as filled when price trades back to yesterday's close during the session. Touching it is enough.
The live odds move while a bar is still open. Calls, marks and alerts only happen on closed bars, so nothing repaints.
The odds describe this chart's history, not a promise about today. An 80% call is wrong one time in five, and the grey marks show exactly when.
This is a charting tool, not financial advice.
Trade smarter, not louder. Free signals 📈 lessons 🎓 market news 📰 👉 t.me/nambou_signals
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.
Trade smarter, not louder. Free signals 📈 lessons 🎓 market news 📰 👉 t.me/nambou_signals
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.