OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Macro Regime Dashboard
HOW TO READ THE MACRO REGIME DASHBOARD
Think of this as a weather report for markets, not a trade signal generator.
1 START WITH THE REGIME (TOP ROW)
MACRO REGIME
RISK-ON → tailwinds for equities & beta
MIXED → chop, fakeouts, smaller size
RISK-OFF → capital preservation first
This answers:
“Should I be pressing risk right now?”
Rule of thumb
Stay aligned with the regime
Don’t fight it with individual stock ideas
2 THE SCORE (SECOND ROW)
Regime Score
Range: roughly –5 to +5
+3 to +5 → strong risk-on
+1 to +2 → mild tailwind
–1 to +1 → transition / no edge
–2 to –5 → defensive environment
This answers:
“How confident is this environment?”
Position sizing rule
|Score| ≥ 3 → full size allowed
|Score| = 1–2 → reduced size
|Score| = 0 → mostly wait
3 EQUITIES ROW (SPY vs MA)
Equities
Risk+ → SPY above trend MA
Risk- → SPY below trend MA
This is your market participation check.
Interpretation
Risk-ON + Equities Risk+ = trends work
Risk-OFF + Equities Risk- = avoid longs
Mixed + Equities flipping = chop zone
4 CREDIT ROW (HYG / IEF)
Credit
Risk+ → credit spreads tightening
Risk- → credit stress building
This is the canary in the coal mine.
Very important rule
If Credit = Risk-, be skeptical of rallies
Credit usually breaks before equities
5 VOLATILITY ROW (VIX)
Volatility
Low → trend-following works
High → mean reversion, hedging, patience
This answers:
“Is the market calm or nervous?”
Trade adjustment
Low vol → options selling, swing trades
High vol → smaller size, wider stops, hedges
6 RATES ROW (10Y YIELD)
Rates
Risk+ → yields falling
Risk- → yields rising
This tells you who wins inside equities.
Mapping
Falling rates → tech, growth, duration
Rising rates → value, energy, financials
7 USD ROW (DXY)
USD
Risk+ → USD weakening
Risk- → USD strengthening
This controls global liquidity.
Mapping
Weak USD → commodities, EM, gold
Strong USD → US assets outperform, EM struggles
8 200 MA CONTEXT (LONG TREND)
Bull / Bear Context
Bull → regime shifts resolve upward
Bear → rallies fail more often
This is your macro gravity.
Rule
In Bear context → be quicker to de-risk
In Bull context → give trades more room
9 TILT (BOTTOM ROW)
Tilt
This is your portfolio bias, not a trade.
Examples:
Growth / Equities / EM
Cash / Defensives / Hedges
Reduce size / wait
This answers:
“What should my book look like this week?”
EXAMPLE: STRONG RISK-ON
Regime: RISK-ON
Score: +4
Credit: Risk+
Vol: Low
Action
Full size allowed
Favor trend trades
Reduce hedges
EXAMPLE: RISK-OFF
Regime: RISK-OFF
Score: –3
Credit: Risk-
Vol: High
Action
Raise cash
Defensive ETFs
Avoid dip-buying
EXAMPLE: MIXED / TRANSITION
Score near 0
Credit flat
Vol rising
Action
Smaller size
Pairs trades
Wait for confirmation
Think of this as a weather report for markets, not a trade signal generator.
1 START WITH THE REGIME (TOP ROW)
MACRO REGIME
RISK-ON → tailwinds for equities & beta
MIXED → chop, fakeouts, smaller size
RISK-OFF → capital preservation first
This answers:
“Should I be pressing risk right now?”
Rule of thumb
Stay aligned with the regime
Don’t fight it with individual stock ideas
2 THE SCORE (SECOND ROW)
Regime Score
Range: roughly –5 to +5
+3 to +5 → strong risk-on
+1 to +2 → mild tailwind
–1 to +1 → transition / no edge
–2 to –5 → defensive environment
This answers:
“How confident is this environment?”
Position sizing rule
|Score| ≥ 3 → full size allowed
|Score| = 1–2 → reduced size
|Score| = 0 → mostly wait
3 EQUITIES ROW (SPY vs MA)
Equities
Risk+ → SPY above trend MA
Risk- → SPY below trend MA
This is your market participation check.
Interpretation
Risk-ON + Equities Risk+ = trends work
Risk-OFF + Equities Risk- = avoid longs
Mixed + Equities flipping = chop zone
4 CREDIT ROW (HYG / IEF)
Credit
Risk+ → credit spreads tightening
Risk- → credit stress building
This is the canary in the coal mine.
Very important rule
If Credit = Risk-, be skeptical of rallies
Credit usually breaks before equities
5 VOLATILITY ROW (VIX)
Volatility
Low → trend-following works
High → mean reversion, hedging, patience
This answers:
“Is the market calm or nervous?”
Trade adjustment
Low vol → options selling, swing trades
High vol → smaller size, wider stops, hedges
6 RATES ROW (10Y YIELD)
Rates
Risk+ → yields falling
Risk- → yields rising
This tells you who wins inside equities.
Mapping
Falling rates → tech, growth, duration
Rising rates → value, energy, financials
7 USD ROW (DXY)
USD
Risk+ → USD weakening
Risk- → USD strengthening
This controls global liquidity.
Mapping
Weak USD → commodities, EM, gold
Strong USD → US assets outperform, EM struggles
8 200 MA CONTEXT (LONG TREND)
Bull / Bear Context
Bull → regime shifts resolve upward
Bear → rallies fail more often
This is your macro gravity.
Rule
In Bear context → be quicker to de-risk
In Bull context → give trades more room
9 TILT (BOTTOM ROW)
Tilt
This is your portfolio bias, not a trade.
Examples:
Growth / Equities / EM
Cash / Defensives / Hedges
Reduce size / wait
This answers:
“What should my book look like this week?”
EXAMPLE: STRONG RISK-ON
Regime: RISK-ON
Score: +4
Credit: Risk+
Vol: Low
Action
Full size allowed
Favor trend trades
Reduce hedges
EXAMPLE: RISK-OFF
Regime: RISK-OFF
Score: –3
Credit: Risk-
Vol: High
Action
Raise cash
Defensive ETFs
Avoid dip-buying
EXAMPLE: MIXED / TRANSITION
Score near 0
Credit flat
Vol rising
Action
Smaller size
Pairs trades
Wait for confirmation
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Mã nguồn mở
Theo đúng tinh thần TradingView, tác giả của tập lệnh này đã công bố nó dưới dạng mã nguồn mở, để các nhà giao dịch có thể xem xét và xác minh chức năng. Chúc mừng tác giả! Mặc dù bạn có thể sử dụng miễn phí, hãy nhớ rằng việc công bố lại mã phải tuân theo Nội quy.
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.