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Smooths IB Map
Smooths IB Map — Initial Balance Probability Engine
Overview
Smooths IB Map is an Initial Balance indicator built around a statistical probability engine rather than simple level plotting. The Initial Balance (IB) is the price range established during the first hour of the regular trading session (9:30–10:30 ET by default). This range has long been used by institutional and retail traders as a reference for the day's expected price behavior — price frequently sweeps one or both IB extremes before reversing or continuing. This indicator quantifies that tendency and makes it actionable.
What makes this different
1 — Timeframe-independent data collection. Most IB indicators compute statistics directly from chart bars. This means the sample size — and therefore the probabilities — change depending on which timeframe the chart is set to. A 1-minute chart may only hold 16 days of history while a 15-minute chart holds 240, producing completely different numbers from the same lookback setting. This indicator solves that problem by anchoring all data collection inside request.security("5") — a fixed 5-minute reference feed. Probabilities are identical on any chart timeframe.
2 — Exponential decay weighted probability. A raw historical average gives equal weight to a sweep that happened 200 days ago and one that happened last week. This indicator applies exponential decay (factor 0.85 per day of age) so that recent sessions contribute proportionally more to the probability estimate. When market regime shifts, the indicator adapts faster than a simple percentage would.
3 — Range-conditional probability. Every historical IB day is classified as SMALL (<70% of the historical average range), NORMAL (70–130%), or LARGE (>130%). The indicator then computes the IBH and IBL sweep rate specifically for days that match today's size bucket. If today's IB is unusually tight, the conditional column in the table shows the sweep rate from similar tight-range days only — a more relevant reference than the overall average.
4 — First-break direction tracking. The table shows what percentage of historical days saw the IBH break first vs the IBL break first vs both sweeping on the same bar. Over a large enough sample this can reveal directional tendencies for specific instruments and sessions.
5 — Failed retest signal. After a level is swept, price often pulls back to retest it from the other side. If the retesting candle closes back on the swept side (confirming rejection), the level has flipped from resistance to support or vice versa. The indicator detects this condition and plots a colored circle directly on the wick of the confirming bar — one signal per level per day, first confirmed retest only.
How to use it
Add the indicator to any intraday chart (1m through 60m). Set your IB Open and IB Close times to match your instrument's session. Set the Data Cutoff to the time after which you do not want sweeps counted — for US equities, 16:00 ET is appropriate. Increase the Lookback Days to the maximum your plan supports (the tooltip explains approximate limits by plan). The probability labels display inside the IB box as a percentage — green indicates a historically high sweep rate (≥65%), red indicates low (≤35%), and white is neutral. The third column of the data table shows the conditional probability for today's IB size bucket. A teal circle on a bar's low signals a bullish failed retest of the IBH. A red circle on a bar's high signals a bearish failed retest of the IBL. All four alert conditions (IB formed, IBH swept, IBL swept, failed retest) are available for notification.
Notes
Designed and built for MNQ/NQ futures but compatible with any intraday instrument. A minimum of 5 completed historical sessions is required before probability values are shown. Statistics are always computed from completed days only — the current in-progress session is excluded. The failed retest signal requires the sweep to have been established on at least one prior bar before it can trigger, preventing false fires on the original sweep candle itself.
Overview
Smooths IB Map is an Initial Balance indicator built around a statistical probability engine rather than simple level plotting. The Initial Balance (IB) is the price range established during the first hour of the regular trading session (9:30–10:30 ET by default). This range has long been used by institutional and retail traders as a reference for the day's expected price behavior — price frequently sweeps one or both IB extremes before reversing or continuing. This indicator quantifies that tendency and makes it actionable.
What makes this different
1 — Timeframe-independent data collection. Most IB indicators compute statistics directly from chart bars. This means the sample size — and therefore the probabilities — change depending on which timeframe the chart is set to. A 1-minute chart may only hold 16 days of history while a 15-minute chart holds 240, producing completely different numbers from the same lookback setting. This indicator solves that problem by anchoring all data collection inside request.security("5") — a fixed 5-minute reference feed. Probabilities are identical on any chart timeframe.
2 — Exponential decay weighted probability. A raw historical average gives equal weight to a sweep that happened 200 days ago and one that happened last week. This indicator applies exponential decay (factor 0.85 per day of age) so that recent sessions contribute proportionally more to the probability estimate. When market regime shifts, the indicator adapts faster than a simple percentage would.
3 — Range-conditional probability. Every historical IB day is classified as SMALL (<70% of the historical average range), NORMAL (70–130%), or LARGE (>130%). The indicator then computes the IBH and IBL sweep rate specifically for days that match today's size bucket. If today's IB is unusually tight, the conditional column in the table shows the sweep rate from similar tight-range days only — a more relevant reference than the overall average.
4 — First-break direction tracking. The table shows what percentage of historical days saw the IBH break first vs the IBL break first vs both sweeping on the same bar. Over a large enough sample this can reveal directional tendencies for specific instruments and sessions.
5 — Failed retest signal. After a level is swept, price often pulls back to retest it from the other side. If the retesting candle closes back on the swept side (confirming rejection), the level has flipped from resistance to support or vice versa. The indicator detects this condition and plots a colored circle directly on the wick of the confirming bar — one signal per level per day, first confirmed retest only.
How to use it
Add the indicator to any intraday chart (1m through 60m). Set your IB Open and IB Close times to match your instrument's session. Set the Data Cutoff to the time after which you do not want sweeps counted — for US equities, 16:00 ET is appropriate. Increase the Lookback Days to the maximum your plan supports (the tooltip explains approximate limits by plan). The probability labels display inside the IB box as a percentage — green indicates a historically high sweep rate (≥65%), red indicates low (≤35%), and white is neutral. The third column of the data table shows the conditional probability for today's IB size bucket. A teal circle on a bar's low signals a bullish failed retest of the IBH. A red circle on a bar's high signals a bearish failed retest of the IBL. All four alert conditions (IB formed, IBH swept, IBL swept, failed retest) are available for notification.
Notes
Designed and built for MNQ/NQ futures but compatible with any intraday instrument. A minimum of 5 completed historical sessions is required before probability values are shown. Statistics are always computed from completed days only — the current in-progress session is excluded. The failed retest signal requires the sweep to have been established on at least one prior bar before it can trigger, preventing false fires on the original sweep candle itself.
Mã nguồn mở
Theo đúng tinh thần TradingView, tác giả của tập lệnh này đã công bố nó dưới dạng mã nguồn mở, để các nhà giao dịch có thể xem xét và xác minh chức năng. Chúc mừng tác giả! Mặc dù bạn có thể sử dụng miễn phí, hãy nhớ rằng việc công bố lại mã phải tuân theo Nội quy.
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.
Mã nguồn mở
Theo đúng tinh thần TradingView, tác giả của tập lệnh này đã công bố nó dưới dạng mã nguồn mở, để các nhà giao dịch có thể xem xét và xác minh chức năng. Chúc mừng tác giả! Mặc dù bạn có thể sử dụng miễn phí, hãy nhớ rằng việc công bố lại mã phải tuân theo Nội quy.
Thông báo miễn trừ trách nhiệm
Thông tin và các ấn phẩm này không nhằm mục đích, và không cấu thành, lời khuyên hoặc khuyến nghị về tài chính, đầu tư, giao dịch hay các loại khác do TradingView cung cấp hoặc xác nhận. Đọc thêm tại Điều khoản Sử dụng.