Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. PMI Data, Various Central Bank Decisions in Focus
By Dow Jones Newswires staff
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting Sept. 21.
U.S. provisional purchasing managers' surveys for September are due in the coming week, providing an update on current economic activity as investors digest Wednesday's interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve and assess the prospect of more to come.
PMI data are also due in the eurozone and the U.K., while interest-rate decisions are due in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Mexico and South Africa.
In Asia, central-bank decisions and key economic data will take center stage as investors assess the region's policy outlook amid persistent global inflation concerns. China will announce its benchmark lending rates, while Bank Indonesia holds a rate-setting meeting.
Investors will also keep a close eye on a summit between U.S. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
U.S.
Provisional purchasing managers' surveys measuring activity in the U.S. manufacturing and services sectors during September are due on Wednesday.
These will give an up-to-date snapshot of how companies are faring given the recent spike in oil prices, which was a key factor prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at its recent meeting.
Any signs of strength in the economy could add to expectations for further rate increases to come, which Fed policymakers have already signaled.
"The fact that there are only two FOMC members who believe the central bank won't hike again this year suggests a broad hawkish repositioning has already occurred within the FOMC," ING economist James Knightley said in a note.
U.S. money markets on Friday priced in another 25 basis-point Fed rate increase by the end of 2026 and a further two hikes by June 2027, LSEG data showed.
Other U.S. data due in the coming week include weekly jobless claims and August new home sales on Thursday, followed by August preliminary durable goods orders data and the University of Michigan final September consumer sentiment survey on Friday.
The Treasury will auction $69 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, $70 billion in five-year notes on Wednesday and $44 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday.
Canada
Canadian retail sales data for July are due on Thursday.
These data come as investors increasingly anticipate that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates by the end of the year, potentially at its next meeting in October. Canadian money markets show investors are pricing a 59% probability of a quarter-point rate increase next month and are fully pricing a hike by the end of the year, LSEG data showed.
Latin America
Mexico's central bank is due to announce a decision on Thursday, where it is expected to leave interest rates on hold at 6.5%.
"The tone will likely remain cautious, as the dovish factors that some board members have emphasized will likely be offset by more challenging external conditions," HSBC economists said in a note.
Eurozone
The European Central Bank raised interest rates as expected at its recent meeting. This was due not only to high oil prices but also followed recent evidence of a robust eurozone economy. Investors will therefore be looking at upcoming data to see whether this trend is continuing.
French, German and eurozone provisional purchasing managers' surveys for September, measuring activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, will be of particular interest. These are due on Wednesday.
"Surprisingly strong growth over the summer has made it easier for the ECB to tighten monetary policy, and it will be interesting to see if the momentum increases especially in manufacturing," Danske Bank analysts said in a note.
Eurozone money markets recently priced in at least three further quarter-point interest-rate rises by the ECB by the middle of next year, including another one by the end of 2026, LSEG data showed.
Also of particular note will be the German Ifo business climate index for September, due on Thursday.
Other data due during the week include eurozone preliminary September consumer confidence on Tuesday; French confidence surveys for September on Thursday; and German GfK consumer confidence for October plus eurozone M3 money supply for August on Friday.
Germany will auction October 2031 Bobls on Tuesday and May 2047- and August 2056-dated Bunds on Wednesday. Other issuers are Slovakia on Monday and Italy on Thursday.
The German Finance Agency will publish its quarterly debt issuance review for the fourth quarter on Thursday, while the Italian treasury will also publish its quarterly funding guidance on the same day.
U.K.
The Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 3.75% at its meeting Thursday. Nonetheless, Governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged that inflation risks are rising, signaling a potential interest-rate increase in the coming months.
Investors fully price in four BOE rate rises by June 2027, LSEG data show.
Public sector finances data set to be released on Tuesday will be closely watched for indications of the health of government finances ahead of the Oct. 28 budget. Investors will look at the impact of rising government borrowing costs on public finances.
Flash U.K. purchasing managers' index data for September, which measure activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, are due on Wednesday.
The GfK U.K. consumer confidence survey for September is set to be released on Friday.
The U.K. will sell March 2032 gilts on Tuesday.
Scandinavia
Sweden's central bank, the Riksbank, is due to publish its interest-rate decision on Thursday, where it is likely to keep the policy rate steady at 1.75%.
"The Bank is inching towards raising rates, but inflation remains low, even adjusting for recent fiscal policy changes," Nomura analysts said in a note. "The economy is looking increasingly resilient, with stellar GDP growth in the second quarter, but the labor market is still fairly loose."
The next move will likely be a rate rise but the timing looks uncertain, they say. Nomura expects the Riksbank to raise rates in March 2027, although sees the risk of this being brought forward to November or December, depending on data, guidance and minutes from Thursday's Riksbank meeting.
Norway's central bank, Norges Bank, also announces a decision on Thursday, where rates are mostly expected to be left on hold but a 25 basis-point increase is possible.
Nomura expects the central bank to keep rates at 4.25%.
Inflation was lower than expected over summer, delaying a previously likely August rate rise, the bank's analysts said. With the Iran war continuing to cause inflation pressures, however, the Norges Bank could signal future tightening with a possible move in November, they said.
Sweden will hold a bond auction on Wednesday.
Switzerland
The Swiss National Bank is scheduled to announce an interest-rate decision on Thursday, where it is widely expected to keep interest rates at 0% as inflation remains low in Switzerland.
Investors will watch for any commentary from the central bank on the impact of the recent jump in energy prices, as well as on the strength of the Swiss franc and the possibility of foreign-exchange interventions.
"The SNB is not going to hike rates. But the signal they give in the current environment should be quite interesting," said Gero Jung, head of investment strategy at Banque Cantonale du Valais.
Hungary
Hungary's central bank announces its interest-rate decision on Tuesday.
The central bank is likely to temporarily pause rate cuts, keeping the base rate at 5.50%, given expectations for a lower inflation target and ongoing geopolitical risks, ING analysts said in a note.
"We still forecast further cuts before the end of the year, based on the assumption that local developments in Hungary could open the door to two more 25 basis-point moves."
Hungary should receive further structural market support following the publication of the new midterm budget plan, expected in October, they said.
South Africa
South Africa's central bank announces a decision on Wednesday and is likely to raise its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% due to concerns that the recent jump in oil prices will likely feed through into higher inflation.
"Higher oil-induced near-term inflation, a mixed inflation expectations picture, and the move towards synchronized developed country policy rate hikes provides sufficient justification for tighter policy," HSBC economists said in a note.
Japan
Japanese financial markets will be closed Monday through Wednesday for public holidays, leaving a light economic calendar for the week. The ministry of finance is scheduled to sell three-month bills Friday.
With few domestic data releases, investors will continue assessing the fallout from the Bank of Japan's decision to raise its policy rate to 1.25%. The 7-2 vote and Gov. Kazuo Ueda's cautious signals on further increases have raised doubts about how quickly the central bank can continue tightening.
ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky said opposition from the two dissenting board members could make it harder to secure support for another increase this year. He expects the yen to remain under pressure, with the dollar potentially rising toward 160 yen in the coming weeks.
MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny also sees scope for further yen weakness, saying the split vote and the BOJ's assessment that inflation-adjusted interest rates are "low" rather than "negative" damped expectations for more aggressive tightening.
China
China's loan prime rates will be in focus Monday as investors look for signs of further monetary support for the economy. The one-year LPR influences most corporate and household loans, while the five-year rate is a benchmark for mortgages.
Recent economic data have strengthened the case for additional support, Societe Generale strategists said, pointing to August retail sales having risen just 0.4% from a year earlier, while year-to-date fixed-asset investment growth slowed to 7.2%. Industrial production, however, remained a bright spot.
The currency has also shown resilience, with the dollar slipping below 6.70 yuan despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. Societe Generale noted the People's Bank of China recently set its daily fixing at 6.7521, the strongest level in the current cycle.
The currency's recent strength could give policymakers some room to ease, although pressure on banks' profit margins and the risk of renewed yuan weakness could limit the scope for rate cuts, they added.
Any decision to lower the rates would signal an effort to support borrowing and domestic demand, though pressure on banks' profit margins and the yuan could limit the scope for easing.
PBOC Gov. Pan Gongsheng has described slower loan growth as a "new normal," citing shrinking credit demand from the property sector and local governments that emerging industries haven't yet fully replaced.
DBS economists expect the PBOC to keep the one-year LPR unchanged at 3.00%, maintaining a measured easing stance as resilient exports and industrial activity continue to support growth.
"Against this backdrop, policymakers are likely to maintain a measured policy stance, relying on targeted fiscal support to sustain growth rather than further rate cuts," they said.
Australia / New Zealand
Reserve Bank of Australia communications will again be in focus, while August employment data Thursday will be the week's main economic release.
RBA Gov. Michele Bullock will speak to the Committee for Economic Development of Australia on Tuesday.
Comments from the RBA in recent weeks have been hawkish, and economists now expect two more interest-rate increases before year-end.
Bullock is expected to continue signaling further increases, citing the Middle East war and a boom in artificial-intelligence investment among the reasons policy may need to be tightened further.
The RBA believes the labor market is close to full employment and has been somewhat surprised by the strength of hiring despite continuing global shocks.
The unemployment rate is expected to come in at around 4.5%. The data are unlikely to significantly weaken expectations for further interest-rate increases.
Indonesia
Bank Indonesia is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 5.75% at its policy meeting Wednesday, following a dovish pause in August and a recent appreciation of the rupiah supported by foreign inflows, ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song said.
However, the rupiah could come under renewed pressure from broad U.S. dollar strength, weaker external balances and declining foreign-exchange reserves, they said.
The economists continue to expect one final quarter-percentage-point increase in the fourth quarter.
Newly appointed central-bank Gov. Destry Damayanti is likely to highlight tighter global financial conditions and geopolitical tensions as key risks on the horizon, while noting that the domestic economy remains relatively resilient, DBS economists said.
After considerable volatility in the first half of the year, the rupiah has been rangebound this quarter, reducing the need for currency-driven rate increases, they added.
Past comments from Indonesia's incoming finance minister also indicate a continued preference for fiscal prudence rather than fiscal activism.
"We expect Indonesia's policymakers to exhibit limited urgency to tighten policy at this juncture," DBS said.
Singapore
Singapore will release August inflation data Wednesday. The figures will be watched for signs of mounting price pressures following increases in electricity and town-gas tariffs this quarter.
Headline and core inflation are likely to have accelerated in August, ING economists said. Higher oil prices are expected to lift energy inflation, while El Niño-related supply disruptions should keep food-price pressures elevated, they added.
Any references to days are in local times.
Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com