Trump Weighs 75,000 H200 Cap as Nvidia China Shipments Could Hit 1 Million

US officials are weighing tighter guardrails on Nvidia NVDA as the company attempts to reengage with China's AI market, with the Trump administration discussing a potential cap of 75,000 H200 chips per Chinese customer, according to people familiar with the matter. Shipments of Advanced Micro Devices' AMD MI325 accelerators would count toward the same ceiling. While total exports to China could still reach as many as 1 million units under an upper bound set earlier in the regulatory process, the per-customer restriction would materially shape how much capacity leading Chinese technology firms can realistically secure. The proposed 75,000-unit threshold is less than half of what companies such as Alibaba BABA and ByteDance have privately indicated they hope to purchase, suggesting that even an approved framework may fall short of initial demand expectations.

At the center of the negotiations is the H200, Nvidia's most powerful chip from its previous generation and the industry benchmark for training and operating AI systems such as ChatGPT before the launch of the Blackwell line last year. The H200 delivers six times the computational capability of the products previously authorized for sale to China and is described as far more advanced than comparable offerings from Huawei. President Donald Trump said in December that Chinese leader Xi Jinping had responded positively to the H200 proposal, and Chinese regulators have instructed companies to begin preparing orders. A planned meeting between Trump and Xi in the coming weeks could prove important, as the US president seeks an agreement to permit H200 exports to nonmilitary Chinese entities. So far, Washington has approved only a limited number of H200 shipments, and Nvidia has stated it is not currently generating data center revenue from China and remains uncertain whether Beijing will ultimately permit imports.

Implementation details may ultimately determine the financial impact. National security officials previously secured an overall ceiling of 1 million H200 units for China, a figure below what Nvidia originally proposed yet still sizable enough that, if concentrated, it could enable construction of one of the world's largest supercomputers. US rules also prohibit Chinese companies from using these chips to build overseas data centers, even though most H200 license applications were reportedly for deployment abroad, including an application by Alibaba to install H200 systems in Malaysian facilities. Additional requirements compel exporters to attest that sales will not reduce availability for US customers and to certify that Chinese buyers conduct rigorous due diligence to prevent military useconditions Nvidia has argued are onerous. Shares of Nvidia fell almost 1% to a low of $181 in late trading following the news, while AMD declined to $197.07, reflecting investor sensitivity to how export policy could influence AI hardware volumes in the months ahead.