IXIC: Nasdaq Futures Rise as Asia Chip Rally Downplays Hawkish Fed. What to Watch This Week

Technology shares are starting the week on the front foot, helped by gains across Asia. Your move, Fed?

🚀 Technology tries to outrun interest rates

• Nasdaq futures turned 0.7% higher Monday alongside notable gains in S&P 500 and Dow futures. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.4% last week and the S&P 500 added 0.2%, while the Dow recorded a third consecutive weekly decline.
• Asia supplied the early momentum. South Korea’s Kospi gained roughly 1.8% as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix advanced, while Taiwan also climbed with help from TSMC.
• Demand for AI chips and memory remains the market’s preferred source of optimism. Japan is closed for the Silver Week holiday and won’t be trading Monday through Wednesday.
• The uncomfortable counterweight is the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield remains close to 5% after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week, with traders considering further increases in October and December.

🌍 FX and commodities complicate the picture

• China’s yuan strengthened beyond 6.70 per dollar, reaching its highest level in more than three years. The PBOC has become less resistant to appreciation ahead of Thursday’s meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, where trade, AI controls, supply chains and the Middle East are expected to dominate the agenda.
• The Japanese yen has moved in the opposite direction. USD/JPY traded near ¥157after rising about 2% last week, even though the Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate to 1.25% — the highest in 31 years.
• Cautious guidance disappointed yen bulls, while reported rate checks put currency intervention back on traders’ radar.
• Brent crude fell around 2% toward $102 a barrel as Saudi exports recovered and some shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resumed.
• Gold also softened as bond yields rose. Bitcoin was firmer near $81,600, gaining roughly 1.5% alongside technology shares, although expensive money remains an awkward companion for speculative assets.

🤖 AI enthusiasm receives a reality check

• China is slowing the rush of humanoid-robot IPOs as regulators question whether state-backed projects and data-collection contracts represent sustainable commercial demand.
• Unitree Robotics has fallen 55% from its post-listing peak, illustrating how quickly an exciting AI-adjacent story can turn into an uncomfortable valuation exercise.
• Costco provides one of the week’s most notable earnings tests on Thursday. Attention will fall on membership growth, consumer spending and the possibility of another special dividend.
• Costco shares are up modestly this year but remain well below their May record, leaving investors less forgiving of another earnings disappointment.

📅 What traders should watch this week

• Wednesday brings preliminary US manufacturing and services PMIs for September. Strong activity accompanied by rising input prices would reinforce expectations for additional Fed tightening.
• Weaker growth without softer inflation would create the less charming combination known as stagflation anxiety.
• Thursday is the week’s busiest session. Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet, while US jobless claims and new-home sales provide fresh readings on employment and housing.
• Central-bank decisions are also due from Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Mexico and South Africa, giving currency traders plenty of reasons to remain awake.
• Friday delivers August durable-goods orders and the final University of Michigan consumer-sentiment survey.
• Preliminary sentiment fell 7.5% to 47.8 — its second-lowest reading on record — while one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.6%. A downward revision would raise growth concerns; another inflation increase would give the Fed additional cover to stay hawkish.