AAPL: Apple Stock 5% Below Record as $2,000 Foldable iPhone Takes Center Stage

Tomorrow’s event is set to deliver Apple’s biggest iPhone redesign since the OG was invented. Is that good or bad for the stock?

📱 Apple prepares to fold

• Apple AAPL holds its annual product event Wednesday at 10 a.m. Pacific time, with its first foldable iPhone (likely called Ultra) expected to headline the “Surprise and Shine” presentation. It’ll be John Ternus’s first keynote as CEO.
• Against that backdrop, shares of the tech highflyer are floating near $320, or about 5% under the record high. The new iPhone 18 is also in the lineup.
• The book-style device reportedly opens to offer a screen similar in size to an iPad mini and may cost more than $2,000. That would make the foldable Apple’s most expensive iPhone and its most significant hardware redesign since Steve Jobs introduced the original in 2007.
• The investment case is that a genuinely different device could persuade customers to upgrade sooner while lifting Apple’s average selling price without requiring everyone to buy one.
• Analysts expect around 10 million units during the first year, while IDC forecasts more than 17 million foldable iPhone shipments by 2027. Those volumes remain modest within Apple’s enormous installed base, but premium pricing means the device could contribute disproportionately to revenue and profit.

💰 Higher prices meet higher costs

• Apple enters the launch with global smartphone shipments expected to contract by a record 16.7% this year. Foldable shipments, by contrast, are projected to grow 12.6%.
• That means Apple is entering one of the handset market’s few expanding categories — seven years after Samsung kindly started the product testing.
• Huawei and Xiaomi unveiled new foldables ahead of Apple’s event, increasing competitive pressure in China. Huawei controls approximately 68% of China’s foldable market and led the country’s overall smartphone market last quarter.
• Rising memory prices create another challenge. Apple has already increased Mac and iPad prices to offset component costs and warned that supply constraints will limit current-quarter sales.
• A $2,000-plus foldable protects margins, but it also tests how much innovation consumers require before accepting laptop money for a telephone.

👀 Traders want more than hardware

• Investors should watch the final price, preorder timing, production availability and management’s explanation of durability. Previous foldable devices faced criticism over visible screen creases and fragile hinges.
• Apple’s reputation depends on entering categories late but polished; discovering the crease during the keynote would weaken that particular tradition.
• The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, updated Apple Watches and new AirPods are also expected. AI will be a big topic too.
• Apple has trailed Microsoft, Alphabet and Samsung in investor perceptions of artificial intelligence, so useful on-device features could prove more important for the stock than another camera gaining additional megapixels.
• Apple events often produce “sell the news” reactions because anticipation is already reflected in the share price. To sum it up ahead of the event: the phone should fold, expectations shouldn’t.