SPX: S&P 500 Logs New Record High with August Jobs Report Around the Corner

Estimates are set for 78,000 new jobs, a big pullback from previous months. Watch for revisions, especially after what happened to May and June. Also, why was Amazon up?

🔥 Markets Rip to New Records

• The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 0.8% to mark its 21st record close of 2025, at 6,502.08 points, extending its winning streak as traders leaned into rate-cut optimism.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI gained 350 points, up 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite IXIC climbed 1%, both finishing just shy of their August closing highs.
• Amazon stock AMZN helped power gains across the board, with shares up more than 4% on hype around its deepening relationship with AI startup Anthropic. In short, traders ramped up bets on the company’s cloud and AI strategy.

📊 Weak Enough, but Not Too Weak

• Thursday’s ADP private payrolls report showed 54,000 new jobs in August, well below the 75,000 estimate and a steep drop from July’s revised 106,000 figure.
• “People are out of jobs, let’s load up,” traders, probably, as equities still pushed higher on the conviction that the softer print increases the likelihood of a September rate cut without raising any imminent recession alarms.
• CME Group’s FedWatch tool now shows a 97% probability of a 25 bps rate cut on September 17, marking one of the highest odds baked in this year.

👀 All Eyes on Friday’s NFP Report

• The August nonfarm payrolls report USNFP drops Friday, with economists expecting 78,000 new jobs, a significant slowdown from previous months’ averages.
• Traders are also bracing for revisions, especially after May and June’s shocking adjustment erased 258,000 jobs from earlier estimates – a key factor bolstering the rate-cut case.
• Unemployment is expected to tick slightly higher to 4.3%, reinforcing the Fed’s delicate balance between keeping inflation in check and supporting a cooling labor market.