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$GM — Pennant Coil Under the High

— Pennant Coil Under the High, Tariff Tailwind vs Strike Overhang (1D)
Structure: GM ran from the April $72 zone back to the premium, and after tagging the ~$85 local high it's been coiling in a tight pennant — higher lows pressing into horizontal resistance, volume compressing. Price $83.77 sits just under the $85.19 swing high and the $87.62 52-week high, above the rising MA and the reclaimed $79.24 support. The structure leans continuation: a daily close above $85.19 → $87.62 retest → measured-move toward the $88.67 (1.236) and the $92-94 extension, with the $98.48 marked as the stretch target. Invalidation: lose the $79-80 pennant support and the rising trendline, and it's back to the $72-74 demand. RSI 61 and rising — momentum building, not extended.
The bull catalyst stack: GM raised full-year 2026 EBIT-adjusted guidance after a Supreme Court tariff decision cut its expected gross tariff costs to $2.5-3.5B from $3.0-4.0B — roughly a $0.5B favorable swing. Q1 EPS of $3.70 beat by ~42%, revenue $43.6B, adjusted EBIT $4.3B, EV market share up to 13%, full-year EPS guided to $12.4. The Street is constructive: 18 analysts, 14 Buy / 3 Hold / 1 Sell, average target $97.65 (~16% upside), high $131 (Citi), low $59. Aggressive buybacks continue shrinking the float, and the stock trades at a modest ~13x forward EPS. Wikipedia + 2
The honest bear overhang: A UAW strike is taking "strategic" aim at some of GM's most profitable vehicles, with members picketing an axle maker. And the insider signal is a flag, not a tailwind: CEO Mary Barra offloaded 23,000 shares June 2, with two more top executives (CAO Hatto, EVP Harvey) selling sizeable blocks in early June. Insiders selling into a breakout attempt is the thing that argues for waiting on the confirmation rather than front-running it. Plus the China-market and EV-adoption risks remain. Earnings July 21. TRADING ECONOMICS + 2
The read: coiling under the high into a genuine fundamental tailwind (tariff relief + beat-and-raise), but with a labor strike and notable insider selling as the counter. High-probability continuation if $85.19 breaks on a close; until then it's a pennant that can fail either way. Wait for the break, respect $79 as the line.

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