The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury note consolidated after big jumps earlier this decade, and upside risk could be emerging.
Today’s idea uses 3-day candles to see price action over the last 2.5 years.
The first pattern is the falling trendline along the peaks of October 2023 and April 2024. TNX crossed above that resistance in late 2024 and has remained there since, which may confirm the decline has ended.
Second, you have a series of higher lows since the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates in September 2024.
Third, narrow Bollinger BandWidth may create potential for yields to start moving again.
Fourth, MACD has been rising.
Finally, TNX jumped above 4.20 earlier this month and bounced there this week. Making a new low above that line (which had relevance back to July 2025) could also suggest an uptrend is taking shape.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at https://www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureOptions. Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on https://www.TradeStation.com/Important-Information/. System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit https://www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureTSCompanies for further important information explaining what this means.
Today’s idea uses 3-day candles to see price action over the last 2.5 years.
The first pattern is the falling trendline along the peaks of October 2023 and April 2024. TNX crossed above that resistance in late 2024 and has remained there since, which may confirm the decline has ended.
Second, you have a series of higher lows since the Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates in September 2024.
Third, narrow Bollinger BandWidth may create potential for yields to start moving again.
Fourth, MACD has been rising.
Finally, TNX jumped above 4.20 earlier this month and bounced there this week. Making a new low above that line (which had relevance back to July 2025) could also suggest an uptrend is taking shape.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at https://www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureOptions. Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on https://www.TradeStation.com/Important-Information/. System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit https://www.TradeStation.com/DisclosureTSCompanies for further important information explaining what this means.
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