XAU/USD 14 July 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price has printed according to yesterday's analysis dated 14 July 2026 where I mentioned in alternative scenario that due to H4 internal structure being bearish, price could potentially target strong internal low and print a bearish iBOS.
Price subsequently printed a bearish iBOS and bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within a established internal range, however, I shall monitor price action with regards to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 3,983.545.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: 
Short
XAU/USD 13 July 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price is remains to be trading within an established internal range.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,195.510. Price may potentially print higher to bring CHoCH positioning closer to recent price action.
Alternative scenario:
Due to H4 internal structure being bearish, price could potentially target strong internal low and print a bearish iBOS.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: 
Long
Long
XAU/USD 10 July 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 06 July 2026.
Price previously did not print a bearish CHoCH and continued bullish.
Price subsequently printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I shall monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,195.510. Price may potentially print higher to bring CHoCH positioning closer to recent price action
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: 
Long
Long
XAUUSD - Bullish BiasCurrent Price: ~4,097Bias:
Long (Higher timeframe correction nearing completion)
Key Analysis: Overall structure shows a corrective move from the ~4,500 area. Recent BOS indicates the first signs of bullish momentum.
Price is currently pulling back toward a high-probability demand zone.
And the IMB at 3,991.723 - 3,941 is acting as a strong price magnet. I expect smart money to step in to fill their remaining orders when price gets to this level.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Long @ 3,991.723 (bottom of IMB / Demand zone) if I see some form of rejection
Stop Loss: Below the imbalance ~ 3,936 (protects against breakdown)
Take Profit 1 (Partial): 4,202.837 (intermediate supply)
Final Take Profit: 4,383.505 (major supply / previous high)
Risk-Reward: ~1:7 if it plays out fine
Confluence: Bullish Order Block + Imbalance fill
Discount array entry
Expected reversal + bullish MSS on the way up
Will be monitoring for strong rejection or bullish displacement inside the IMB zone. If price breaks and holds above 4,202 with momentum, we target the 4,383 area next.
Long
XAU/USD 09 July 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 06 July 2026.
Price previously did not print a bearish CHoCH and continued bullish.
Price subsequently printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I shall monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,195.510. Price may potentially print higher to bring CHoCH positioning closer to recent price action
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: 
Long
XAU/USD 08 July 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 06 July 2026.
Price previously did not print a bearish CHoCH and continued bullish.
Price subsequently printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I shall monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,195.510. Price may potentially print higher to bring CHoCH positioning closer to recent price action
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: 
Long
Long
Short 
Short 
XAU/USD 06 July 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price previously did not print a bearish CHoCH and continued bullish.
Price subsequently printed a bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I shall monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,195.510. Price may potentially print higher to bring CHoCH positioning closer to recent price action
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: 
Short
BTC to make a low in Q4BTC is delivering a textbook MMXM Sell Model on the weekly CME chart. The model is roughly halfway through completion.
For those unfamiliar: the Market Maker Sell Model (MMXM) is a Smart Money concept that maps how price distributes from a premium and delivers to a discount. It's not prediction — it's structural recognition of how large participants engineer liquidity across a full cycle.
── THE MODEL, MAPPED TO PRICE ──
🟢 ORIGINAL CONSOLIDATION (green box, 55-75K)
Sep 2023 through Oct 2024. Accumulation phase. Smart money building position at a discount before the mark-up.
🔵 REACCUMULATION (blue box, 85-105K)
Nov 2024 through Feb 2025. Continuation of the trend. Retail chasing, weak hands rotating out.
⚪ DISTRIBUTION / SMART MONEY REVERSAL (grey box, ~130K)
Aug-Oct 2025 highs. This is where the model turns. Distribution into strength. The premium PD array.
🔴 REDISTRIBUTION #1 (red box #1, 85-95K)
Dec 2025 through Feb 2026. First lower high. Failed reclaim of the highs. Sellside delivery begins.
🔴 REDISTRIBUTION #2 (red box #2, 70-82K)
Apr through May 2026. Second lower high, tighter range. Final distribution before the impulse leg. This is where our previous shorts triggered.
🟢 TARGET: RETURN TO ORIGINAL CONSOLIDATION (green shaded zone, 30-50K)
Where the model completes. Not a prediction — a structural target based on the model itself.
── WHERE WE ARE NOW ──
BTC is at 62,430 as of this post. We've broken structure through the reaccumulation and completed the first impulse leg down. The current bounce is expected relief inside the larger sellside delivery — not a reversal.
The question isn't direction. It's path.
── LEVELS ON WATCH ──
UPSIDE (retracement zone before continuation):
→ 67-69K = CME weekly gap + 50% of the most recent breakdown leg. Confluence resistance.
→ 78-82K = the redistribution range. Extreme case if bounce extends.
DOWNSIDE (MMXM completion zones):
→ 48-55K = upper bound of the original consolidation. First real support.
→ 30-45K = full completion zone. Where the model "closes."
These are structural levels, not predictions. Price rarely respects them cleanly — it wicks through, retraces, and often takes longer than expected. Patience > precision.
── WHY THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT (MACRO) ──
The macro backdrop is uniquely aligned with the technical structure:
• Fed at 3.50-3.75%, held for 2 straight meetings
• CPI 4.2% — sticky, no clear cut path
• Iran conflict + Hormuz uncertainty keeping energy elevated (WTI ~$90)
• BTC spot ETF outflows: $3.4B+ over 11 consecutive days (largest streak on record)
• MSTR first BTC sale since 2022 — at $77,135, right at the redistribution highs
• Warsh's first FOMC as Fed Chair this week — dot plot Wednesday is a binary catalyst
Stagflation setups + institutional deleveraging + technical distribution complete = the cleanest bearish structural setup I've mapped in this cycle.
── INVALIDATION ──
Model invalidates on a clean weekly close above 85K — that would reclaim the redistribution zone and require a full rethink.
Until then: structurally bearish. Watching pops as add zones for existing shorts.
Educational content. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
What's your take on the model? Do you see the same structure, or read it differently?
#BTC #Bitcoin #MMXM #SmartMoneyConcepts #SMC #WeeklyAnalysis #Stagflation #Macro Short 
XAU/USD 03 July 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed according to my analysis dated 01 July where I mentioned price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,115.810.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,195.510. Price may potentially print higher to bring CHoCH positioning closer to recent price action
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: Did Bitcoin Finally Bottom?The year 2026 has proven to be one of the most frustrating periods for cryptocurrency holders and investors. Bitcoin has experienced one of its weakest historical performances, leading many to question whether this bull market has broken from its traditional cycle.
Historically, Bitcoin bull markets have tended to last approximately three years from start to finish, giving rise to what is commonly known as the four year cycle. In previous cycles, Bitcoin's price has accelerated throughout this period before reaching a peak that closely aligned with the expected four-year timeline.
With that in mind, it's possible that the current bear market which has forced many investors into capitulation, is approaching its conclusion. Traditionally, the four year cycle consists of roughly three bullish years followed by one bearish year. However, when examining the yearly chart, we can see that Bitcoin advanced for only two years before closing the third annual candle in the red.
This observation leads me to consider whether Bitcoin's bull and bear markets are beginning to compress as the asset class matures. If this trend continues, we may see shorter bull markets accompanied by shorter bear markets, rather than the extended cycles we've become accustomed to.
Moving into my analysis, which is based primarily on fractals and should be used as supplemental context within a broader investment framework, I'd like to compare the previous bear market with today's price action.
The similarities are striking, not only in the overall wave structure, but more importantly in the relationship between price and time. In both cases, Bitcoin appears to trade back into the Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) from the cycle high while forming a well-defined ABC corrective structure.
What stands out most is how closely both bear markets resemble one another. The relief rallies occur at nearly identical points in time and develop into remarkably similar price structures. While no fractal guarantees future outcomes, the resemblance is difficult to ignore.
If this ultimately proves to be Bitcoin's cycle low, one key catalyst to watch could be ISM and PMI data, which may indicate that inflationary pressures are beginning to ease. A shift in the macroeconomic environment could provide a supportive backdrop for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
That said, this analysis does not suggest that price cannot move lower. Rather, I believe it's important to pay close attention to the structure that develops around the lows. While many market participants are anticipating a decline toward the $30,000 range, that is not currently supported by the fractal I am tracking. Instead, the fractal suggests that the cycle bottom is more likely to develop somewhere in the $50,000 region.
Long 
