Check for support near 159.51-161.01
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(LRCX 1D Chart)
If LRCX finds support near the 159.51-161.01 level and rises, it is expected to rise to around the Fibonacci level of 2.618 (197.94).
Since the current price level is within the previous high range, it should maintain the price above the 159.51-161.01 level if possible.
If not, a normal downtrend is likely.
At this point,
1st: M-Signal on the 1W chart (around 134.21)
2nd: M-Signal on the 1M chart (around 113.0)
There is a possibility of a decline to the 1st and 2nd levels above, so we need to consider a response plan.
A normal downtrend should be considered a profit-taking period.
This means it's likely difficult to determine the right time to buy again.
However, we can use various methods to mark support and resistance points and determine the right time to trade by checking for support.
Even so, it's difficult to easily buy during a normal downtrend.
It's best to consider the right time to buy when support is found around the DOM (-60) to HA-Low range and then determine the right time to trade.
Currently, the HA-Low indicator is at 65.49, so if it falls below 159.51 and continues to decline, the HA-Low indicator is likely to form.
If the HA-Low indicator forms, a new wave will form, so it's important to check for support at that time.
-
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The key is whether it can find support near 456.84 and rise
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(VRTX 1M Chart)
The key is whether it can rise above 456.84-495.89.
If the price succeeds in rising,
1st: Right Fibonacci level 1.618 (552.93)
2nd: Right Fibonacci level 1.902 (619.03) ~ 2 (641.84)
3rd: Right Fibonacci level 2.618 (785.67)
We need to check for support near the above levels.
If the price fails to rise,
1st: 316.40
2nd: 236.34
There is a possibility of a decline near the first and second levels above.
At this time, it's important to check for the formation of the DOM (-60) or HA-Low indicator.
If the price falls below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and remains there, there's a possibility of a downtrend, so we need to consider a response plan.
However, if the price declines to around 236.34-316.40, it could be a buying opportunity depending on the level of support, so you should also consider a response plan.
-
(1D chart)
The boxed areas represent important support and resistance zones.
Among them, the 456.84-495.89, 483.06-491.57, and 426.27-440.81 zones represent resistance zones.
For an upward breakout of these resistance zones and a sustained uptrend, the following conditions must be met:
1. The StochRSI indicator must be trending upward. Ideally, it should not have entered the overbought zone.
2. The TC indicator must be trending upward. Ideally, it should remain above zero. 3. The OBV indicator should show an upward trend. If possible, it should remain above the High Line.
With the above conditions met, we need to see if it can rise above and sustain the final resistance level of 495.89.
To achieve this, we expect to see up and down swings.
If it falls below the lowest resistance level of 426.27-440.81, it is highly likely to fall to the support level of 373.65-385.83.
At this point, a drop below 426.27 could lead to a step-down trend, so we need to consider how to respond.
However, if support is found, it's time to buy, so we need to consider how to proceed with partial purchases.
The reason for this concern is that if the price rises from the 373.65-385.83 range, it will touch the 426.27-440.81 range, then fall and touch the 373.65-385.83 range again.
In other words, if the price rises after receiving support from a support area, then forms a resistance area, then falls and touches the support area again, the likelihood of further declines is higher.
Therefore, you should consider how to execute a partial purchase when a stepwise downtrend is observed.
-
In any case, if the price rises after receiving support from around 456.84, the resistance area will be around 483.06-495.89.
If it breaks above, the stepwise uptrend is likely to continue.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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The key is whether it can rise above 0.2851
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(TRXUSDT 1M Chart)
From a long-term perspective, the price needs to remain above 0.18-0.2011 to continue the uptrend.
If it encounters resistance at 0.2851 and declines, we should check for support near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
If further declines occur, support around 0.18-0.2011 will be crucial.
-
(1W chart)
Looking at the 1W chart, we should examine whether it finds support near 0.2548-0.2851 and can rise.
If it finds support near 0.2548-0.2851 and rises, the key question is whether it can break above the 0.3379-0.3614 range.
-
(1D chart)
Therefore,
1st: 0.2548-0.2851
2nd: 0.18-0.2011
When support is found near the 1st and 2nd levels above, it indicates a period of partial buying.
It is falling below the HA-Low indicator, showing a stepwise downward trend.
Therefore, you should consider either waiting for the stepwise downward trend to stop or increasing the number of coins (tokens) that can be profited through day trading.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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Start of a full-blown uptrend: 2.0-2.1446
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(SUIUSDT 1M chart)
To continue the uptrend, the price must rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and hold.
Accordingly, the key question is whether the price can rise above the 2.0-2.1446 range and maintain its upward momentum.
If the upward movement fails, we should observe whether the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart moves sideways until it declines near the Fibonacci level of 0.236 (1.3434).
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(1W chart)
The key question is whether the price can find support and rise near the newly forming DOM (-60) ~ HA-Low range (1.4969-1.8396).
Based on the basic trading strategy, the target range is around the 4.2272-4.7328 range.
However, caution is advised when trading, as the price is currently forming below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
Therefore, I think it's best to start trading after confirming whether the price rises to around 2.0-2.1446 and maintains its strength.
-
(1D Chart)
When analyzing charts, it's best to observe the movements of the 1D chart as a basic trading strategy.
This is because most indicators are derived from the 1D chart.
In this sense, the key is whether the price can find support and rise around the 1.3451-1.5174 range, which is the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range on the 1D chart.
As mentioned earlier, to sustain the uptrend from a long-term perspective, the price must remain above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart. Therefore, the current price level is not suitable for trading.
A decline in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range could lead to a step-down trend.
This means that the price is renewing its low, but it can also be considered a time for a split buy.
Therefore, you should consider how to execute a split buy before starting a trade.
If the price rises from the DOM(-60) to HA-Low range, the HA-High to DOM(60) range will form.
Therefore, if you bought near the DOM(-60) to HA-Low range, you should sell near the HA-High to DOM(60) range.
However, if the price rises from the HA-High to DOM(60) range, it's likely to form a step-up trend, so it's recommended to sell in steps.
As mentioned earlier, a step-up trend, like a step-down trend, means that the price is renewing its high.
Therefore, since a sharp decline is possible at any time, it's advisable to sell in steps at the appropriate time to secure profits.
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In summary, if you encounter the DOM(-60) or HA-Low indicators, you should focus on finding the right time to buy and consider how to execute the split purchase.
Furthermore, if you encounter the DOM(60) or HA-High indicators, you should focus on finding the right time to sell and consider how to execute the split purchase.
This is the basic trading strategy.
If not, and you buy when the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range supports and rises, or sell when the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range resists and falls, it's best to maintain your stop loss.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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Strong Support and Resistance Area: 533.90-793.86
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(BNBUSDT 1D Chart)
The 533.90-793.86 area is a strong support and resistance area. A decline below this area is highly likely to trigger a long-term downtrend.
Therefore, if support is found around the 533.90-793.86 range, it would be a buying opportunity.
Since the HA-Low indicator formed at 871.15, if support is found around the 833.78-871.15 range, this would also be a buying opportunity.
Resistance levels are:
1st: 1028.57-1088.90
2nd: 1220.98-1302.65
The first and second levels above are resistance levels.
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If the price holds above 793.86, it is expected to rise to around the circled range shown on the chart above.
BNB should be traded differently from BTC or ETH.
In other words, while you can continue to invest in BTC and ETH to purchase them, you should hold altcoins like BNB, XRP, and SOL by increasing the number of coins that represent profits.
Therefore, if the price rises after purchasing, you should sell the original purchase amount, leaving only the number of coins that represent profits.
This is because in a bear market, the price drops more sharply than expected.
BTC and ETH also show significant declines during bear markets, similar to altcoins. However, they tend to rebound faster than altcoins, allowing for continued investment and purchase.
However, to stabilize your psychological state, it's important to take some profits while you're in profit.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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Check if the price remains above 2887.66
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(ETHUSDT 1D Chart)
The HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart is showing signs of forming at 2887.66.
Since the HA-Low indicator previously formed at 3472.96 and is showing signs of forming again, determining whether support at 2887.66 is crucial.
Furthermore, since the indicator is located near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, we need to see if the price can maintain its upward momentum above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
In this sense, a rise above the previous HA-Low indicator level of 3472.96 is expected to trigger an uptrend.
Therefore, to ensure that the uptrend continues after breaking above a key point or range, we need to monitor whether the StochRSI, TC, and OBV indicators remain in an upward trend.
Since the OBV indicator has fallen below the EMA 3, it must rise above and remain above the EMA 3 level.
We need to confirm whether the price can rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart after passing through this volatility period around November 27th (November 26th-28th).
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Short
December 8 - December 12 2025: Disappointment ImminentThe market has not changed too much since last week, where my assessment that the market was in a neutral state turned out to be mostly accurate. I’m continuing to refine my analysis so I have changed some things heading into this week which should help provide even clearer signals. With the rate decision in focus, it will be important to consider the implications that a cut (which I am biased towards) vs unchanged rates will have on these indicators, as it will likely make the difference between the market continuing its bullish trend to end the year or if equities will continue to feel pressure from high interest rates and a slowing economy.
1. Macro
Here we are seeing low demand for treasuries TVC:US10 and the dollar TVC:DXY while bond and equity put hedging has been unwinding. I think the current state of the market provides a clear signal of why the Fed needs to cut interest rates this month - dumping bonds while growth stagnates will make real yields surge and could cause the market to retreat from US assets altogether, which would be a worst-case scenario. I think the Fed has no choice but to keep cutting rates in order to keep yields down. Since the breakeven rate FRED:T5YIE was rising at the end of last week, a drop in the nominal yield TVC:US05Y now would send the real yield to lower lows.
2. FX
Since the dollar can service as a funding or carry currency, I am comparing US rates to “carry” countries and the dollar index to other carry currencies in order to determine whether investors in this yield-seeking regime would be interested in dollars. Here you can see that compared to yields in Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia (not shown), US yields are underperforming, and as a result, the dollar is weakening against the respective currency indices TVC:AXY , TVC:CXY , TVC:ZXY
This is my new indicator that normalizes carry country yields (GB, CA, SE, NZ, AU) vs safe haven yields (JP, CH, EU, & US), shown on the dashed line, and respective currency pairs on the dotted line in order to detect the risk regime. Here we are seeing that carry yields are elevated and the market is still chasing after them compared to rushing to funding currencies for yield or safety.
Here is a comparison of funding countries. My expectation for this week is that
1. The market will still be seeking yield (risk-on)
2. If US yields & USD fall, it will lift carry trades vs USD (such as FX_IDC:CADUSD & OANDA:AUDUSD )
3. Risk-on regime continues, which will boost US equities
Of course, the opposite will play out if the Fed keeps rates high, however they need to keep foreign investors buying US debt in order to sustain our unsustainable debt for a little while longer. Leaving rates unchanged will spook investors about the trajectory of monetary policy and lead to higher yields. This is why I am quite confident we will see a rate cut and am explaining this scenario in more detail.
3. Risk
Credit fear continues to ease, while risk-on tech bets AMEX:XLK recover against safety in consumer staples AMEX:XLP
4. Equity Comparison
Tech is still battered compared to other sectors. A sign of tension will emerge if tech continues to underperform the market while the Fed is signaling continued monetary easing. This would point to a true change in sentiment in which the market may be bearish on Tech. If this were to happen, a major market correction could be on the horizon.
5. Bias
I’ve changed a few things on this layout and moved the CVD indicators to my QQQ chart since they react better to regular market hours order flow. Here I have a Z-score indicator of CME_MINI:ES1! - CBOE:VX1! which shows that the equity regime for September so far is bullish. ADL is flattening out but is not giving a useful signal yet. I also changed the linear Historical Volatility indicator to a Z-score oscillator which shows HV is declining and moving back to its floor, which can also be seen on VIX. Since we are guaranteed to see a major volatility spike after the rate announcement, I think VIX may be choppy until then.
What’s worth noting is that with HV (non-directional) at its floor (sensitive to any Vol spikes) and VIX back to its floor ahead of the rate announcement, this signals to me that equities may have more sensitivity to a downside movement.
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
When viewed together, I think all of this sends an interesting message that points to divergence between Macro/FX and US equities. With the Fed cutting rates into slower growth and Tech underperforming, low HV/VIX makes equities vulnerable to a reduction in risk exposure. I think this is what we will see if rates are cut under the current regime.
1. Yields will fall, but TVC:DXY may hold steady if there is equity pressure in the US.
2. Risk-on yield-seeking trades in FX will continue. Dollar may hold up against other funding currencies but will fall against higher-yielding currencies
3. Tech will underperform
4. VIX catching a bid will correspond with US indices falling
5. Since global environment will still be risk-on, volatility will be limited to the US and may be less intense
As always, the reason I post my analysis is to provide a reference point as the week unfolds, and to backtest my strategies for improvement. For now, my bias is low volatility until FOMC (likely sideways or upside drift) followed by downside later in the week.
Short
Check if it can rise above 422.80
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(ZECUSDT 1D Chart)
After a sharp rise, the price is showing a sharp decline.
The key to a bullish turn is whether the price can rise above 422.80 and hold.
If the uptrend fails, we need to check for support around 216.60.
If it falls below 216.60, it's likely to take time to rise again.
Although the price is showing a short-term downtrend, falling below the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, it should be considered an ongoing uptrend because the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart > M-Signal on the 1W chart > M-Signal on the 1M chart is arranged in this order.
Therefore, if the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart declines, consider whether it can find support near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and consider a response plan.
Therefore, the movement when the price falls to around 216.60 is crucial.
There is a possibility that the price will rise above the OBV High indicator, sustaining the price and indicating further upward movement.
However, since the OBV Low indicator is still above the OBV High indicator, a sideways movement seems likely.
-
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--------------------------------------------------
The key is whether it can break above 588.5-616.2
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(BCHUSDT 1D chart)
The 1D chart is rising towards the HA-High ~ DOM (60) range, raising expectations for a bullish trend.
Accordingly, the key question is whether the 588.5-616.2 range can be supported and the price can rise.
If it rises, we should examine whether it can break above the 678.7-719.5 range, which is the range formed by the DOM (60) indicator on the 1M chart and the previous high.
To continue the uptrend by breaking above key points or ranges, the StochRSI, TC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
If possible,
- The StochRSI indicator should not have entered an overbought zone.
- The TC indicator should remain above zero.
- The OBV indicator should remain above the High Line.
Therefore, we should examine the movements of the StochRSI, TC, and OBV indicators when the price rises above the DOM (60) indicator.
If the StochRSI falls below 80, it's considered a stop loss, as further declines are likely.
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Long
Hindenburg Omen Is Flashing AgainThe Hindenburg Omen has triggered, and it’s lining up with what the market breadth data has been whispering for months. If you look at the bottom pane, you’ll see the percentage of stocks above their major moving averages has been sliding for about six months.
So even though the index has kept pushing to new highs, fewer stocks are moving with it. A small group of mega-caps is doing all the heavy lifting, while the broader market slowly weakens underneath.
Historically, that’s exactly the kind of environment where the Hindenburg Omen becomes relevant. It doesn’t promise a crash, but it flags when internal conditions have deteriorated enough to allow one. Several past signals have occurred before meaningful corrections.
Why This Matters Now
The next couple of weeks are important. CPI, PPI and labour data between now and 10 December will shape expectations heading into the FOMC meeting. If the Fed changes tone on monetary policy, liquidity, or the path of rates, it will feed directly into sector rotation and capital flows.
That’s why I’m not committing to any major trades right now. The signals are mixed, breadth is weakening, leadership is narrow and policy risk is rising. Capital preservation comes first until we get a clear direction from the data and the Fed.
Sometimes the smartest move is patience. Let the data confirm the story. The market isn’t going anywhere. Education 
Weekly and Monthly Forecast
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The volatility period has ended.
The key is whether it can rise above 89294.25.
If not, we need to check for support near 69000-73499.86.
(1W chart)
The following are important areas as the price falls below the third range:
- 116259.91-119086.64
- 87814.27-93570.28
- 69000-73499.86
A decline below the 69000-73499.86 range can be considered a long-term downtrend, so this is a very important area for now.
Therefore, as the price approaches the 69000-73499.86 range, we need to check for increased trading volume or the emergence of a new HA-Low indicator on the 1W chart.
If the HA-Low indicator is formed, it's important to determine whether there's support near it.
The basic trading strategy is to buy in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and sell in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range.
If the price rises near the HA-Low indicator and moves toward the HA-High indicator, the wave should be considered closed (reset).
Conversely, if the price falls near the HA-High indicator and moves toward the HA-Low indicator, the wave should also be considered closed (reset).
A closed (reset) wave means that the trend has been reestablished.
Therefore, as mentioned earlier, the basic trading strategy is created.
However, if the price rises in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range, a stepwise uptrend is likely, while if the price falls in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range, a stepwise downtrend is likely.
The end of a stepwise uptrend is a decline, and the end of a stepwise downtrend is a rise.
Therefore, a decline after encountering the HA-Low indicator is different from a decline after encountering the HA-High indicator.
Therefore, a stepwise downtrend indicates a period of truncation buying, while a stepwise uptrend indicates a period of truncation selling.
During a stepwise downtrend, even if the price declines, there's an expectation that a price increase will occur soon, so you can increase the number of coins (tokens) representing profit.
This method involves trading at each purchase price and selling the same amount of coins (tokens) when the price rises, thereby increasing the number of coins (tokens) representing profit.
The coins (tokens) representing profit are those with a purchase price of 0, which can lead to significant profits later.
-
A bullish trend can be considered when the price rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and holds.
However, the point where you should actually buy is when the price rises above 108353.0.
Based on the current trend, the next volatility period is expected around December 23rd.
Therefore, you should check to see if the price holds above 89294.25 during the next volatility period.
Therefore, it appears likely that the price will move sideways to reverse the trend.
Based on the price movement, the start of a major bear market is expected to begin after the first quarter of next year.
However, if the price falls below 69000-73499.86, you should consider this a bear market and consider a response plan.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
- Here's an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I'll explain more in detail when the bear market begins.
------------------------------------------------------
Long
The key is whether support can be found around 89294.25
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
This period of volatility is expected to last until November 22nd.
If the price fails to find support and rise near the M-Siganl indicator on the 1M chart after this period of volatility, it is likely to decline to the 69,000-73,499.86 level.
Therefore, the key question is whether it can find support and rise near the HA-Low indicator level of 89,294.25 on the 1D chart.
-
(1M chart)
It is showing a downward trend, failing to reach the Fibonacci ratio 2.618 (133,889.92), which was considered the target level.
However, if the price maintains above the 69,000.0-73,499.86 level, it is expected to maintain an upward trend in the long term.
-
(1W Chart)
If the price rises above the HA-High indicator, it is likely to form a stepwise uptrend.
Since a stepwise uptrend usually ends in a decline, this decline could be a sign of a bearish trend.
The M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart can be used as a benchmark for bullish and bearish trends.
Therefore, if the price remains below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it should be considered a bearish trend and a response should be considered.
However, considering the overall trend of BTC, the most important range is the 69,000-73,499.86 range. As long as it does not fall below this range, the price is expected to maintain an upward trend in the long term.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
--------------------------------------------------
- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I will explain in more detail when the bear market begins.
------------------------------------------------------
Short 
Bitcoin ETF Investors Underwater as Price Breaks $89.6K Bitcoin has now retreated below a key cost-basis level, officially pushing U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors into the red.
Data from Glassnode’s Sean Rose shows the average ETF investor cost basis sits around $89,600, a level Bitcoin broke on Tuesday. The decline means spot ETFs are now holding unrealized losses.
Bitcoin ETF Realized Price Now Lost
On Monday, analyst JA Maartunn reported that the ETF’s realized price was just 9% away from breakeven with Bitcoin at the time. With Bitcoin now hovering just below that level, institutional holders are slipping into losses.
Analysts believe it could trigger further selling from ETF issuers as they seek to reduce risk. However, the opposite remains possible. In 2024, ETF providers accumulated BTC during corrections, helping fuel a strong recovery.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju maintains that Bitcoin remains outside bear-market territory as long as it holds above $94,635. Meanwhile, the latest dip has pushed BTC below that mark.
ETF Outflows Accelerate as Investors React to Macro Weakness
The downturn comes amid weeks of heavy redemptions across digital asset funds. Last week alone, crypto ETPs saw $2 billion in outflows, the largest since February. BlackRock’s IBIT posted a record $463 million single-day withdrawal on November 14, and the outflow trends have only continued.
According to CoinShares, global crypto ETP assets declined from a peak of $264 billion in early October to $191 billion, representing a 27% drop. The U.S. accounted for $1.97 billion of last week’s redemptions, while Switzerland and Hong Kong saw smaller outflows. Germany bucked the trend with $13.2 million in inflows as investors bought the dip.
CoinShares analysts highlight worsening macroeconomic conditions, including shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Acheron Trading CEO Laurent Benayoun noted that upcoming flows will likely hinge on economic data and central-bank signals. Meanwhile, VeChain’s Johnny Garcia cautioned that short-term ETF moves often reflect rebalancing and arbitrage, not purely sentiment.
Market Searches for BTC Bottom
Bitcoin briefly plunged to $89,253 on Tuesday, its lowest level since April, before rebounding slightly above $90,000. Yet, BTC is now down more than 5% on the day and 3% year-to-date, erasing the gains sparked by its October all-time high of $126,080.
Major altcoins also suffered. Ethereum slid to $3,011, down 23% in a month, while Solana fell 27% to $135. XRP remained comparatively resilient, declining just 8% to $2.16.
Now, several prominent figures believe Bitcoin is nearing a cyclical bottom. Gemini co-founder Cameron Winklevoss called BTC under $90,000 a “final buying opportunity.”
At the same time, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and BitMine chairman Tom Lee both expect the market to stabilize this week. Hougan described the current price zone as a “generational opportunity.”
XRP and Solana ETFs Continue to Attract Fresh Capital
In contrast to Bitcoin and Ethereum’s heavy outflows, XRP and Solana ETFs continue to post steady inflows.
Canary Capital’s recently launched XRPC fund recorded $245 million in inflows on Friday, followed by another $25 million on Monday, even as Bitcoin ETF holders turned net-negative.
Solana ETFs have also remained resilient, adding $8.26 million on Monday and pushing total inflows since October to $390 million. The divergence indicates a growing appetite for alternative large-cap assets perceived as undervalued in relation to Bitcoin following its steep pullback. Short 
Long 
Check for support near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart
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(USDT 1D Chart)
(USDC 1D Chart)
USDT is the major currency that influences the coin market.
The USDT and USDC charts are moving in opposite directions.
This decline appears to be driven by funds flowing out of USDC.
Once the USDC gap decline stops, funds flowing in through USDT are expected to drive the coin market higher.
-
(USDT.D 1M Chart)
For the coin market to show an upward trend, USDT dominance must remain below 4.91 or show a downward trend.
We need to see if the price can face resistance around the Fibonacci level of 0.618 and turn downward.
If not, we should consider a response plan, as a rally toward 7.13 is expected.
-
(BTC.D 1M chart)
For an altcoin bull market to begin, it must either remain below 55.01 or show a downward trend.
Therefore, for the bull market we're waiting for to occur, both USDT dominance and BTC dominance must decline.
If USDT dominance declines while BTC dominance rises, a bull market will emerge, with only BTC rising.
--------------------------------------------------
(BTCUSDT 1D Chart)
The key is whether the price can touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart and turn bullish.
At this point, it's crucial to maintain the price above 89294.25.
If not, a step-down trend is likely.
To turn bullish, the price must remain above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.
At this point, it's crucial to maintain the price above the newly created HA-High indicator point of 110105.69 on the 1M chart.
If not, the price may pretend to rise but then fall again, so you need to consider countermeasures.
This is a basic trading strategy within the box range: buy between DOM(-60) and HA-Low and sell between HA-High and DOM(60).
If the price rises in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range or falls in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range, you should switch to trend trading.
To do this, we should consider the movements of the StochRSI, TC (Trend Check), and OBV indicators.
To sustain the uptrend after breaking above a key point or range, the StochRSI, TC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
At this point,
1. The StochRSI indicator should not have entered an overbought zone.
2. The TC indicator should remain above zero.
3. The OBV indicator should remain above the High Line.
Therefore, check the movements of the StochRSI, TC, and OBV indicators at the support and resistance levels depicted on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts and consider whether you can trade accordingly.
Based on the current price range, the key points or ranges are:
- 87814.27-93570.28
- 110105.69
- 120760.81-124658.54
I believe the three ranges above are important points or ranges.
Therefore, when the price is near these ranges, you should check the movements of the StochRSI, TC, and OBV indicators to determine a response plan.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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- This is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I will explain in more detail when the bear market begins.
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Checking for support near 3472.96
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(ETHUSDT 1D chart)
This period of volatility is expected to last until November 14th.
After this period of volatility, the key question is whether the price can rise after gaining support near the HA-Low indicator (3472.96) on the 1D chart.
At this point, it's crucial to see if the price can rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and maintain its upward momentum.
If the price fails to rise, it is expected to meet the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart again.
Therefore, to continue the uptrend, the price must remain above the 3239.06-3472.96 level.
The formation of the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart indicates a significant decline, forming a low.
Therefore, even if the downtrend continues, there's a possibility of an eventual uptrend, so we need to consider countermeasures.
However, if the price meets the HA-High indicator on the 1D chart or falls near the HA-High level, the price is likely to decline until it meets the HA-Low indicator again or the DOM (-60) indicator.
Therefore, we must remember the basic trading strategy of buying in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range and selling in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range.
If the HA-High ~ DOM(60) range rises, a stepwise upward trend is likely, while if the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range falls, a stepwise downward trend is likely.
Therefore, the basic trading strategy should be a segmented trading approach.
To determine trading within the box range and trend trading outside the box range, we refer to the additional auxiliary indicators, StochRSI, TC (Trend Check), and OBV.
To continue the uptrend by breaking above a key point or range, the StochRSI, TC, and OBV indicators must show upward trends.
1. The StochRSI indicator should not have entered the overbought zone.
2. The TC indicator should remain above 0. 3. The OBV indicator should remain above the High Line.
Therefore, it's important to observe the movement around important points or ranges, such as the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low and HA-High ~ DOM(60).
The next period of volatility will be around November 20th.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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