ETHUSD: Golden OTE Zone (0.72–0.78) + MSS | Long to 1975 BSLExecutive Summary & Signal Overview
📍 Asset: ETH/USD (Ethereum / US Dollar)
🐂 Position Type: Limit Buy / Long Entry
🏁 Buy Zone: 1,875.00 – 1,880.00
🛡️ Stop Loss (SL): 1,856.83 (Below Fibonacci Level 1 / Swing Low)
🎯 Target 1 (BSL 1): 1,925.00 (Fib Anchor Peak)
🎯 Target 2 (BSL 2): 1,952.00 (Intermediate High)
🎯 Target 3 (BSL 3): 1,975.00 (Major Range High)
⚖️ Risk-to-Reward (R:R): 1 : 4.4+
🔍 2. Technical & Confluence Breakdown
📐 A. Fibonacci Golden Ratio / OTE Zone (0.72 – 0.78)
Drawing the Fibonacci retracement from the recent expansion low (1,857) to the local swing high (1,925), the $1,875 – $1,880 area lines up precisely with the 0.72 – 0.78 Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) golden zone.
This level acts as a high-probability discount area where institutional buyers re-enter long positions before continuing impulse moves.
🔄 B. Lower Timeframe Market Structure Shift (MSS)
Prior to the current push, price swept the lower Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) and responded with strong bullish displacement, creating a clean Market Structure Shift (MSS) to the upside.
The structural shift confirms that short-term seller momentum has exhausted and buyers are in control of order flow.
📦 C. Demand Zone Confluence
The $1,875 – $1,880 region overlaps with an unmitigated 15m order block / demand zone responsible for breaking the local structure. Retesting this block provides a strong risk-defined entry.
🧲 D. Unfilled Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) Targets
Multiple clean swing highs sit stacked at 1,925.00, 1,952.00, and ultimate liquidity resting at 1,975.08. These pools represent prime exit liquidity for the move.
🛡️ 3. Execution & Risk Management Guidelines
Invalidation Level:
A candle close below $1,856.83 invalidates the OTE setup, signaling that the move was a temporary pullback rather than a structural reversal.
Partial Profit Protocol:
At TP 1 ($1,925.00): Lock in 30–40% partials and secure the trade by moving Stop Loss to Breakeven (BE).
At TP 2 ($1,952.00): Take another 30% off the table and trail stops under lower-timeframe higher lows.
At TP 3 ($1,975.00): Full exit or leave a minimal runner for higher timeframe imbalances.
⚠️ Educational Disclaimer: This signal analysis is strictly for educational, analytical, and back testing purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always adhere to strict risk management and never risk more capital than you are prepared to lose! 🛡️✨ 
Long
Long
XAU/USD 30 July 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 20 July 2026.
Price has printed according to analysis dated 14 July 2026 where I mentioned price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 3,983.545. This is how price printed.
Price has subsequently printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price has since printed lower. Depth of pullback has been insignificant, therefore, I will not classify the bearish iBOS, however, I have marked this in red for illustration purposes.
Price has since printed a further bullish CHoCH and once again price is trading within an established internal range, however, I shall again monitor price action with regards to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 3,959.800.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: 
Long
Long
ZKH: China’s Largest MRO platform has turned profitable - July26And nobody is watching...
SYMBOL: NYSE:ZKH | DIRECTION: LONG | TIMEFRAME: Weekly
Published: July 2026
** Attention span greater than 5 minutes required, you were warned **
ZKH Group is China’s dominant B2B industrial supplies marketplace. It serves more than 70,000 transacting customers across manufacturing, infrastructure, and industrial maintenance through a platform that stocks millions of SKUs. It has grown its customer base by 85.6% in a single year, turned quarterly profitable for the first time, and is accelerating revenue growth in 2026. The stock trades at $3. It IPO’d at $12, peaked at $22.
The market has been watching the share price. The fundamentals have been going in the opposite direction. That divergence is the setup.
On the above weekly chart ZKH has broken out of a descending price channel while the RSI simultaneously breaks above its own descending channel, confirming a momentum shift. Five fundamental reasons now exist to be long from current levels. They include:
1) Profitability inflection confirmed. ZKH returned to quarterly profitability in Q4 2025, posting a net profit of RMB 4.8 million and non-GAAP adjusted net profit of RMB 14.9 million, against a loss of RMB 50 million in Q4 2024. Full-year 2025 net loss narrowed by 47.8% to RMB 139.7 million. Operating expenses fell 8.7% for the full year while revenues grew. This is the operating leverage of a platform business beginning to work as the model scales. The company guided for quarterly profitability in Q4 2025 and delivered. That is not nothing.
2) Revenue growth accelerating in 2026. Q1 2026 net revenues came in at RMB 2,113.8 million (US$306.4 million), up 9.2% year on year. That is the highest quarterly year-on-year revenue growth in recent quarters, and the second consecutive quarter of acceleration. Full-year 2025 revenues were RMB 8,987.7 million, approximately US$1.24 billion. A business generating more than a billion dollars in revenue, with growth reaccelerating, trading at under $4 per share is an unusual combination. The market has not yet reconciled those two facts.
3) Customer base growing at a rate that defies the share price. ZKH grew its customer base by 85.6% year on year in fiscal 2025. Transacting customers exceeded 70,000, a new quarterly high as of Q3 2025. In platform businesses, the customer base is the leading indicator. Revenue per customer, cross-selling depth, and retention all compound from a growing base. When customers grow at 85% while the share price sits at a three-year low, one of those two numbers is wrong. History is fairly clear on which one it tends to be.
4) AI is doing two things simultaneously : cutting costs and generating revenue. ZKH’s proprietary Expert Linglong AI model delivered a 42% year-on-year increase in customer service productivity and a 52% increase in procurement productivity. That is the cost side. On the revenue side, the ProductRecom Agent generated over RMB 200 million in sales in 2025 and is scaling further in 2026. Most companies describe AI as a cost efficiency tool. ZKH has made it a revenue line. The combination of a falling cost structure and an AI-native revenue contribution is a margin story that the current share price has not priced in.
5) The TAM is enormous and digital penetration is still in its early stages. China’s total industrial MRO procurement market was RMB 3.6 trillion in 2025, growing to an estimated RMB 4.42 trillion by 2030. Digital and intelligent procurement accounts for approximately 12.3% of that market today, expected to reach 16.6% by 2030. ZKH’s GMV of RMB 10.1 billion represents less than 0.3% of the total addressable market. The company that is already the market leader in digital MRO procurement in China, with proprietary AI and the largest platform, holds less than a third of one percent of the market it will spend the next decade claiming. The distance between where ZKH is and where the opportunity sits is the investment thesis.
One caveat worth stating plainly
ZKH is a Chinese company listed on NYSE as an ADR. That structure carries regulatory and geopolitical risk that is not present in a domestic listing. US-China market friction, potential delistings, and VIE structure considerations are real risks. The chart also shows a Hidden Bear signal, rated WEAK, at current levels. It has not invalidated the breakout, but it warrants monitoring. Position sizing should reflect both the asymmetric upside and the binary risks that come with a Chinese ADR in the current environment.
Targets
• 1st target: $5.50. Resistance from the 2024 - 2025 consolidation range high.
• 2nd target: $8.00. Mid-range recovery to the post-crash consolidation zone from early 2024.
• 3rd target: $13.00. Approaching the original IPO price range. A full fundamental re-rating as profitability matures.
A weekly close back below $3.20 invalidates the breakout and requires reassessment.
The crowd
The crowd abandoned this one. The 2023 IPO disappointed, the share price collapsed 80%, and Chinese ADRs have been broadly out of favour. Retail investors who bought the IPO at $12 and watched it go to $3 do not want to look at it. Institutional investors who missed the original story have moved on. The result is a company with $1.24 billion in revenue, 85% customer growth, a proprietary AI stack, and a confirmed profitability quarter, sitting at a price that implies the market no longer believes the story.
The market is often right to abandon a story that has not worked. It is occasionally wrong about when. ZKH is not the same company it was at the IPO. The revenue base has grown, the cost structure has been cut, the AI has been built, and the customer base has nearly doubled in a year. The question is not whether the story was oversold at $12. It clearly was. The question is whether it is undersold at $3. The fundamentals say yes. The chart has just agreed.
Good luck.
Ww
Type: Fundamental long / Chinese ADR | Timeframe: 12–24 months
==================================================
Disclaimer : This idea is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. ZKH Group Limited is a Chinese company listed on NYSE as an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) and operates under a VIE structure. Investing in Chinese ADRs carries additional risks including regulatory risk, geopolitical risk, potential delisting risk, and currency risk, which may not apply to domestic equity investments. All financial figures are sourced from ZKH Group’s publicly filed reports and press releases. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Long
Is Wave 3 Beginning, or Is One More Zigzag Still Ahead?Crude Oil (UKOIL) | 4H Elliott Wave Update
From an Elliott Wave perspective, Waves I and II of the current degree appear to be complete.
Wave I developed as an Impulse, ending with signs of a possible truncation, while Wave II unfolded as an Expanded Flat, which now appears to be complete.
The focus now shifts to the current price action and the character of the developing structure.
From the recent low, the initial rally can be counted as a clear five-wave Impulse, suggesting that Wave 1 of a new bullish sequence may already be in place.
The correction highlighted by the red ellipse is particularly interesting. Structurally, it appears to be a sharp correction belonging to the Zigzag family, which leaves two primary scenarios on the table.
The first scenario is that this correction has already completed Wave 2, allowing the market to extend directly into Wave 3. If this count is correct, a breakout above the corrective channel and the nearby structural resistance would provide the first meaningful confirmation that bullish momentum is expanding.
The second scenario is that the current decline represents only the first stage of a larger corrective pattern. In that case, the market could still develop a larger Zigzag before the next impulsive advance begins. Such a move would remain consistent with Elliott Wave guidelines and would not necessarily invalidate the broader bullish outlook.
At this stage, both interpretations remain valid. The market itself—not our expectations—will determine which structure is unfolding.
If, however, both key invalidation levels are broken, greater attention should shift toward the Conservative Scenario presented in my previous Daily analysis.
Under that interpretation, the current structure may represent only Waves (I) and (II) of a larger degree, meaning the market could still require a deeper correction before the primary bullish cycle resumes.
For readers who have followed my previous long-term Crude Oil analysis, this is the same black Conservative Scenario discussed there, and it remains fully valid until proven otherwise.
At this stage, the objective is not to predict the future with certainty.
The objective is to identify the structures that remain valid, respect the key invalidation levels, and allow price action to reveal the true character of the next market move.
As always, price comes first—our wave count comes second.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)
Jul 14
Reading the Character of the Next Market Cycle
Long
XAU/USD 29 July 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 20 July 2026.
Price has printed according to analysis dated 14 July 2026 where I mentioned price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 3,983.545. This is how price printed.
Price has subsequently printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price has since printed lower. Depth of pullback has been insignificant, therefore, I will not classify the bearish iBOS, however, I have marked this in red for illustration purposes.
Price has since printed a further bullish CHoCH and once again price is trading within an established internal range, however, I shall again monitor price action with regards to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 3,959.800.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: 
Long
ONDOUSDT | Daily Reversal, 4H Compression Into Supply
⚛️ ONDO has put in a strong reversal from the July lows, reclaimed its key EMA structure, and is now holding above the 10/20/50 on the Daily. The trend quality has improved substantially, but price is now pressing into a clear descending supply zone, so this is the decision point.
On the 4H, price has been building a higher base above the 10/20/50 cluster after the initial expansion. That is constructive. The setup becomes actionable only if ONDO can break through the descending resistance and show acceptance above it.
🟢 Continuation Scenario
A clean 4H close and hold above the 0.411 to 0.414 supply area would put the recent local high near 0.4255 in play. Clearing that level with participation would confirm the next leg of the Daily reversal.
The ideal look is a break, a tight retest that holds above the broken trendline, then continuation. No need to chase directly into supply.
🔴 Failure Scenario
If ONDO rejects here and loses the 4H EMA cluster around 0.3962 to 0.3946, it likely rotates back toward 0.3882. A deeper loss of that support would invalidate the clean higher-low structure and turn this back into a broader range.
This is a good example of why location matters. Daily structure is improving, but price still has to prove it can absorb overhead supply.
Location → Compression → Confirmation.
Not a signal. Just how I’m reading structure and participation. 
Long
Long 
Short
XAU/USD 28 July 2026 Intraday AnalysisH4 Chart:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as analysis dated 30 June 2026.
Price did not print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price instead printed a new low followed by a bullish CHoCH
Price is currently trading within and established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,942.100.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 20 July 2026.
Price has printed according to analysis dated 14 July 2026 where I mentioned price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 3,983.545. This is how price printed.
Price has subsequently printed a bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation. Price has since printed lower. Depth of pullback has been insignificant, therefore, I will not classify the bearish iBOS, however, I have marked this in red for illustration purposes.
Price has since printed a further bullish CHoCH and once again price is trading within an established internal range, however, I shall again monitor price action with regards to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 3,959.800.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: 
Short
Short
