Gold futures have stalled around the 4,700 handle, with price also running into the 4,712.8 high-volume node and resistance just beneath the May high. Wednesday’s small bearish engulfing candle adds to the case for a near-term pullback, particularly with momentum looking stretched.
The RSI (14) reached overbought territory on Tuesday, while the faster RSI (2) formed a bearish divergence from its own overbought zone. That does not necessarily point to a major reversal, but it does suggest the latest leg higher may be losing momentum.
A shallow retracement remains my base case for now. The 10- and 20-day EMAs are the first areas to watch, while the 4,500 handle and weekly VPOC at 4,458 could provide stronger support if selling pressure builds. A move into that zone may also attract dip buyers given the strength of the broader trend.
Bears may therefore look to fade rallies back towards the May high, while bulls will want to see a clean break above that resistance before assuming the next leg higher is underway. If that happens, the 4,918 April high comes back into focus, followed by the psychological 5,000 handle.
MS
The RSI (14) reached overbought territory on Tuesday, while the faster RSI (2) formed a bearish divergence from its own overbought zone. That does not necessarily point to a major reversal, but it does suggest the latest leg higher may be losing momentum.
A shallow retracement remains my base case for now. The 10- and 20-day EMAs are the first areas to watch, while the 4,500 handle and weekly VPOC at 4,458 could provide stronger support if selling pressure builds. A move into that zone may also attract dip buyers given the strength of the broader trend.
Bears may therefore look to fade rallies back towards the May high, while bulls will want to see a clean break above that resistance before assuming the next leg higher is underway. If that happens, the 4,918 April high comes back into focus, followed by the psychological 5,000 handle.
MS
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