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2025.4.24 BTC/USD 比特币 行情观点与操作思路受到乌俄战争趋缓、美股反弹、特朗普放话BTC储备等众多利好消息。
BTC本周 4/21 突破了月初一周多的震荡盘整区间。
日线级别，比特已站稳至89,000，这个重要关口上方。
目前有出现多头动能趋缓回跌现象，1H、4H皆呈现弱势回调。
预估会回撤8万9附近。
想吃行情回调，可以小仓位现价进场做空，
待回调测试支撑完毕后，重点可以放在89,000附近进场做多。
空单进场点：９２,６００ or 现价进场
止盈点：８９,０００～９０,０００
止损点：９５,０００
多单进场点：８９,０００or 空单止赢反手做多
止盈点：９４０００、９９０００
止损点: 跌破８８,０００
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Gold prices hit 3,500 for the first time and then plummeted
David: Gold price falls after touching 3500 for the first time, and keeping high is the focus today
This 3500 will leave a deep impression on everyone. First, it rushed to 3500 in one breath, rising strongly. Second, it fell by the largest space range in recent times. The previous 0.382 position was a decline of more than 70 US dollars at most. But here, as of press time, it has fallen from 3500 to 3291, a drop of more than 200 US dollars.
It meets two points: quick arrival and quick pressure bearing.
Today, the price gapped down to 3312 area, and then filled the gap window, and finally determined the 3386.6 position to restart further decline. This position happens to be the position where triple pressure is superimposed.
The first is the channel switching point of the same spatial amplitude in the previous period, the second is the golden section 0.382 position of this wave of decline, and the third is the gap filling point of the window.
The superposition becomes resistance. After the price lingers here, it continues to restart a new round of decline.
So, today's first point of attention is here again, still at 0.382. After a large-volume decline, pay attention to 0.382 as the resistance point for adjustment. If the suppression is successful, continue to decline in large volume.
If the price returns to the area above 3330, then wait for opportunities in the 3350-3355 area, and then look for a partial sweeping decline.
Gold trading ideas on Wednesday
Gold long order: 3305-3303 long, target 3350-3352
Gold short order: 3350-3355 short, target 3320-3315
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继续做多ETH前期我们的BTC被止盈，
另寻重新进场还是其他
2025/4/23/ 18:30没有看到强劲的空头抵抗，可能只是因为多头看到前期压力位，在此止盈而已，继续做多，always in long
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BTC垂直攀登后，关注压力区间反馈，继续右侧低多参考我的上一篇内容，当比特币四月中旬在小时级别74500-76500位置走出双底结构之后，稳步上升突破8.4W前期重要压力关口，该位置也是从高位回落后高点逐步降低形成的下降趋势线“的交叉点，并且，关注我公众号日更内容【策略研报】板块的朋友也能细腻的感受到这个趋势反转的过程，所以我们当时判断该位置是上半年的充分调整后带来的一次 阶段性机会 ， 可以适当逢低做多 ，向上分别关注91000、94000区间的压力反馈择机止盈。
现在的价格已经来到这个区间，但趋势并没有结束，而是刚刚开始，这一轮垂直拉升打出了气势，多头动能的不断延续，带动整个加密市场多点爆发，日线级别继续关注94500-96800区间的反馈，一波冲高后的中继调整结构将在这里发生，我们右侧等待调整之后的再次突破，继续向更高目标10W上方迈进！
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3500 peaked or is the bull market gaining momentum?
The price of gold plummeted by $187 in a single day, and began a deep adjustment after hitting the 3485-3500 range.
The four-hour chart shows that the price effectively rushed up to complete the ABCD pattern structure, accurately touching the 3490 theoretical suppression area of the Harmony Trading System.
This plunge has completely wiped out all the gains at the beginning of the week, and the market has begun to question whether "3500 has become a historical high."
We seized the technical rebound window in today's late trading and have made considerable floating profits by continuously placing long positions in the 3325-3333 area.
The key observation is whether the Asian session can stand firm in the 3370-3380 range and fill the gap: if the European session maintains a strong recovery trend, the US session is expected to recover all the losses on Tuesday;
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Gold will soon challenge $3,500!
The monthly chart of gold shows a strong upward trend, technical indicators continue to rise, and the long-term outlook is bullish
The weekly chart shows a continuous upward trend of big positive lines, technical indicators continue to rise, and the medium-term is bullish
The daily chart is running in a strong upward trend, and the technical indicators show a slight top divergence. Be cautious in chasing highs in the short term; the 4-hour chart is running into a new high, and the technical indicators show a top divergence. Be bullish in the short term and do not chase highs.
In summary, gold prices are bullish in the long, medium and short term. In terms of operation, you should go long on dips, but pay attention to the turning rhythm and be prepared to close positions for profits in time.
In terms of operation, pay attention to the long opportunities in the 3460-82 area, defend 3450, and target 3500-3550.
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Follow the market closely and chase the short-term rise
The trend of gold prices will be mainly affected by the performance of the US dollar, the progress of trade negotiations and geopolitical risks.
In the short term, the US dollar index hovering at a low level near 98.00 may continue to provide support for gold prices, while the market uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff remarks is expected to maintain the favor of safe-haven funds for gold.
From a technical perspective, after stabilizing above $3,400, gold prices are expected to further challenge the round mark of $3,500.
Trend: Upward trend
Support: around 3400.00
Resistance: around 3458.50
Strategy:
Logic of view:
Around 3430, light long view, stop loss 3400, take profit around 3450----3500
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Is it still far for gold to break through $3,500?With the same goal, spot gold rose 2.98% to $3,424.69 per ounce, and hit an all-time high of $3,430.36 earlier in the session.
The dollar fell sharply during the day as President Donald Trump's critical comments about Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell further dampened market confidence in the U.S. economy. A weaker dollar typically makes dollar-denominated gold more attractive to holders of other currencies.
Gold has historically been seen as a hedge against uncertainty and a highly liquid asset, and its price has risen by more than $700 since the beginning of 2025. Last Wednesday, gold broke through $3,300 for the first time, and strong upward momentum pushed it up by more than $100 again in just a few days.
David believes that the current upward momentum of gold is still continuing. In the short term, investors are not recommended to short positions. Profits still need to be made by seizing the short-term and investing more. As shared this morning, the gold target of 3410 has been broken. Now the double bottom structure is still strong, and gold is still bullish.
Gold long investment: 3400-3450 3420-3500
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Gold, next stop: $3,400?
For gold, the most taboo things are questioning and speculation. Using past experience to measure the existing market is itself a rear-view mirror thinking logic. What didn’t happen in the past does not mean it won’t happen in the future, and what you don’t understand does not mean the market does not exist.
Why is gold so strong?
The answer is that the era of "gold is king" has just begun, and the era of cash is a thing of the past. The global economy has entered stagflation, and the game between major powers is fierce. In addition, geopolitical risks continue. More importantly, US President Trump directly pointed out that the Federal Reserve did not obey orders and challenged the independence of the Federal Reserve.
In addition, during the 10-year bull market from 2002 to 2011, gold prices rose from $260 to $1,920, an increase of nearly 6 times. However, this time, gold prices have only increased by more than 3 times from 2016 to now. The speed of market transmission and payment channels in the last gold bull market are completely incomparable to today. This time, the news of the rise in gold prices has spread to every corner of the world.
Therefore, I have always emphasized not to get off the bus easily. It is easy to get off the bus but difficult to get on. The pullback is also for a better rise. Be a friend of time. 2025 will be my best blessing to every investor!
Since the gold price fell last Friday, it has been rising strongly today. The previous high of $3360 will become the new support area. That is, before it is lost, we will continue to be bullish on gold. Even if some people are beaten out because of their aggressive defensive positions, the general bullish direction will not change. You will find that the bulls will never be trapped in a strong market, and all the bears will be completely eliminated!
Today, gold relies on 3360 as the dividing point between long and short positions, and continues to be bullish to 3390-3395, and even today it will challenge the upper side of $3400!
Last sentence: I dare to hold gold long positions for a long time, do you dare to hold short positions for a long time?
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Is it far away for gold’s upward trend to continue to 3500?
The gold market was closed on April 18 due to the Good Friday holiday. Spot gold fell slightly after hitting a record high of $3,357.66 per ounce. Despite the short-term correction, gold prices still rose 2% this week, and the strong pattern has not changed.
The US dollar index rebounded slightly by 0.17% on Thursday, closing at 99.43, but it still fell this week. The weak dollar makes gold denominated in other currencies more attractive, further consolidating the support level of gold. If the US dollar continues to be weak, gold may usher in a new round of upward momentum.
Gold long orders: 3310-3330 long target 3360-3380
Key points:
First support level: 3310, second support level 3300, third support level 3290
Technical aspects: Unicorn double bottom strong support is formed, all long orders are profitable, short orders should not be bought, wait for the opportunity to fall back to invest more.
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The unicorn is coming
The market unicorn is here. I believe that my friends have seen this week's market. I know that many people are waiting and watching...
However, new opportunities have come, as the general weakness of the US dollar, uncertainty around tariffs and concerns about a global recession still provide strong support for gold
According to my technical analysis, now is the best time to buy the rise
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How much more can it rise in the future? The latest rise is comi
The 1-hour moving average of gold continues to be arranged in a bullish divergence. It is difficult for the bulls to have a big correction. After the decline and shock adjustment at the 3320 level yesterday, it continued to break upward. Then the short-term 3320 of gold formed support again. The price rose by more than 100 US dollars on Wednesday. It will not be the largest long investment this week. The form of long investment is still continuing.
At this time, our operation idea is to continue to move low and long to magnify profits. You can buy long orders near 3320. The maximum upper limit of the long position on the day is temporarily seen at 3360? Don't rush to be bearish. The market will naturally find us if we follow the trend?
Now that 3320 has been bought, can you enter the market directly and wait for the big positive line to rise?
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Is the price of gold starting to soar wildly?
Analysis of gold news
As traders wait and see whether the Trump administration will reach a new trade agreement with trading partners, the US dollar index fell again and once fell to around $99, and finally closed down 0.89% at 99.26.
Due to the trend of the US dollar and the escalation of trade tensions, spot gold continued its record-breaking rise, setting a new record high above $3,340, soaring more than $100 during the day, and finally closed up 3.49% at $3,342.19 per ounce.
Today's operation strategy
Long order: 3321-3320 long
Stop loss 3310, target 3355-3360
Short order: 3357-3359
Stop loss 3369, target 3330-3325
Key points:
First support level: 3320, second support level: 3315, third support level: 3310
First resistance level: 3360, second resistance level: 3365, third resistance level: 3370
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Gold, bullish at $3190!
After the gold price broke through the previous high of $3022 before the last decline, it laid the foundation for the subsequent rise. The key to judging whether the decline is over is not to find the support position, but to focus on the breakthrough of the previous high position before the last decline. On the contrary, the rising market is also not to guess where the top is, but to focus on the previous high of $3190 before the last pull-up. If this position is lost, it will enter a short-term shock or adjustment.
Look for gold below 3190, pay attention to the breakthrough of $3245-50 above, and further pay attention to $3265-70 after the breakthrough!
If the support of 3190 is broken and the decline continues, 3170 needs to be followed up.
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3300? Gold price rises to a new high?
On April 16, the spot gold price exceeded $3,280 per ounce, and New York gold futures reached the $3,300 mark for the first time, with a single-day increase of 1.85%, setting a historical record. This milestone breakthrough marks that the gold market has entered a comprehensive risk-averse mode, reflecting the profound changes in the global economic and political landscape.
Gold operation strategy on Wednesday
Gold long order: 3255-3254 long, stop loss 3244, target 3280-3282
Gold short order: 3280-3281 short, stop loss 3291, target 3255-3250
Key points:
First support level: 3250, second support level:
3245, third support level: 3240
First resistance level: 3280, second resistance level: 3285, third resistance level: 3290
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美国关税消息满天飞，企业消费者投资者不确定性大增，走势开始分化周末美国传出些许利好消息，但是真假难辨。美国海关与边境保护局在4月12日称智能手机和电脑，硬盘、存储芯片将被排除在美国“互惠”关税之外。但是4月13日时美国商务部长卢特尼克表示上述提法只是暂时的，最快的一个月后就会被单独征税，税率暂未确定。
和企业密切相关的具体税则未明确
如果上述消息成真，对于科技企业是一个利好。美国的高端芯片，除了英特尔是设计+制造模式之外，大部分企业都是自主设计+委托加工。例如英伟达GPU主要代工厂商是台湾的台积电和韩国的三星，苹果的A系列芯片则全部由台湾台积电工厂代工。
真真假假的消息也暴露出一个致命问题：在特朗普大张旗鼓征税过后，具体到每个行业的每个商品究竟适用于什么税率，仍是个未知数。就连特朗普说已经主动联系的75个国家，究竟是哪75个也是个未知数。
市场最讨厌的就是此类温水煮青蛙式的不确定性，尤其是对于美股而言。
美国消费者预期无差别变差
4月10日发布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数数据显示，总体指数从57.0跌至50.8。此次下降趋势普遍存在于不同年龄、收入、教育程度、地理区域和政治立场的消费者中。消费者报告了多重警示信号，所有分项的信号包括商业状况、个人财务状况、收入、通胀和劳动力市场的预期均持续恶化。
而未来一年通胀预期飙升至6.7%，创下80年代初以来的最高水平。
在密歇根大学公布的根据政治倾向的未来一年通胀预期当中，民主党选民认为月度通胀同比会上涨10%；独立选民认为上涨超过8%；资深共和党选民（MAGA)认为只会有2%。但是无论什么选民，没有一个群体认为未来通胀会下跌。
市场资金开始逐步冷静，但仍在寻找方向
对于投资者而言，度过了令人震惊的阶段，就会开始考虑下一步的方向。标准普尔500指数1 周隐含波动率目前在33.6%，一周前64% 的高点 - 此波动率水平意味着标准普尔 500 指数每日百分比变动为-/+2.2%，对于日内交易社区的许多人来说也不是不可接受。
在重大惊吓之后得到安抚，一定程度上会利空出尽带来些许利好，推动美股向上发弹。尽管反弹的力度难以预期（谁也无法保证特朗普在美股反弹过后是否再次志得意满，又开始挑战全球），但是从标普500指数至关重要的850日均线上还是可以看出端倪。在过去10年间，跌破这一均线被认为美股转入熊市，而上周恰好站稳，目前这一均线在4750附近。对于反弹而言，最大的希望就是特朗普和白宫官员不再发表局势升级的评论。
截止本文撰写之时，上周五收盘时美债收益率和美元的背离似乎有所收敛 。当美债收益率和美元的背离时，代表资本正以惊人的速度流出美国。
经济政策制定的不连贯性，加上特朗普总统不断的政策掉头和“推特治国”模式造成的信誉受损，显然正在引发不少担忧，其中最大的隐忧就是对于美元的不信任。对于那些最近重新配置储备资产并抛售美国资产的人，起码短期内不会再买入。
上图中美元指数已经明显跌破下跌通道，可以留意38.2%回调位置，即101.20点附近。如果回调没能突破，下跌势头大概率继续。
美联储官员开始表态
上周五波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯表示，美联储“绝对”做好准备，并拥有在必要时稳定市场的工具。纽约联储主席表示现在已经了解了关税计划的轮廓。请注意，美联储要稳定的是市场的流动性，尤其是货币交易市场，而非股市的向上护盘。上述话语的大致意思就是“我们知道特朗普的关税了，我们会小心行事，但还没有采取行动”
本周就有5位美联储官员会发表讲话，在2025年有投票权的是鲍威尔和密歇根和洛根。美联储官员表态肯定以中立偏安抚为主。
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BTC趋势线下方多头峰回路转，再次兵临城下本轮关税对抗无论纳指亦或是原油黄金波动都非常剧烈，反观比特币却异常沉稳，经历了一月份到现在为期一个季度的震荡调整后，当前下降趋势线的封印日渐松动，大有一举冲破之势。
价格行为来看在更小的周期内74500-76500位置走出双底支撑结构，当前在83000-84000一带形成阻力，关注反抽后的再次低多尝试，上方目标87000-89000，若突发宏观因素造成74500破位则注意防守，这一次，期待破城！
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上证指数日线Fibonacci落点0.618，孕线上破后多头合力突围清明假期关税大棒落地导致周一指数大幅跳空低开，前期震荡向上通道在冲击3400后动能出现了停滞，很显然资金在关税落地前更多的谨慎观望，所以周一开盘后的下杀也符合大多数人的预期，当全球资产齐跌后，那些受系统性风险连带被错杀的优质资产值得人们重新博弈。
回到价格本身，当前指数日线在fibo的0.618位置形成孕线结构，并且小周期里的K线形态都呈现出乐观的多头倾向，可以把3070-3100区间作为多头大本营，据此位置向上关注，短期压力3200-3270附近，更上方3310，如果再次向下破位则严格遵守止损纪律。
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2025年在美国铜价涨幅超黄金，铜为何成了香饽饽2025年至今，美国铜价上涨25%，目前报价5.056美元/磅。铜成为了大宗商品市场耀眼的明星，甚至2025年至今（本文撰写于4月初）的涨幅超过了黄金的19.6%涨幅。
据Pepperstone观察，COMEX铜期货主力合约价格突破历史极值，较伦敦金属交易所（LME）基准价形成持续升水结构。 COMEX铜期货以美元计价，单位是磅；LME的铜也是以美元计价，但是单位是吨。假设COMEX铜期货价格转为吨表示，那现在价格是11,146.46美元/吨；相比之下LME的价格是9693美元/吨，二者差价1453美元。
为什么伦敦的铜和美国的铜有这么大的价格差异，美铜价格狂飙的背后是什么呢？本期文章Pepperstone分析师从宏观经济周期、产业政策导向、贸易壁垒三个维度展开深度解析，
一、铜价和宏观经济周期
铜是工业消费中的热门金属，每年的使用量达到2800万吨左右。根据统计，全球44%的铜用在电力行业（发电，配电，输电），20%用在工程建筑，14%用在家用电器和消费性电子产品，12%用于交通运输（火车、汽车或卡车中的高纯度铜线束系统将电池产生的电流传送给整个车辆上的设备，如灯具、中控锁、车载计算机和卫星导航系统等）
铜的消费类（需求端）和全球经济形势密不可分。下图可见，铜期货价格和美国的生产者采购经理人指数具有明显的周期相关性。但是细心的读者也会发现，要是工业PMI指数已经从低点拐头之后，形成围绕中枢震荡的结构而非趋势性走势，对铜的指示性意义不大。 甚至当前铜价还出现了明显脱离PMI走势的上涨 ，这就得提到第二个影响因素。
二、铜价和地区性的产业需求
国际能源署（IEA）测算显示，全球清洁能源技术（风电，光伏等）用铜需求占比将从2020年的24%升至2025年的34%。对于想要后来居上的国家和地区，一旦开始不断投资新能源，会带动本国对于铜消费增长的预期。标普《Copper in the US: Opportunities and Challenges》报告预测“到2035年，美国为满足其“能源转型需求”所需的铜量将是现在的两倍，即额外需要150万吨。加上传统的非能源转型需求，到2035年，美国的铜消费量将达到350万吨，增长112%，或复合年增长率为6.5%。”
据Pepperstone观察，新能源汽车的线束显著高于传统能源车，这也会带来上图中12%的应用领域3-4倍的增量空间。火热的AI和数据算力中心也会带来额外的铜需求，铜被应用在芯片和交换机的链接当中。
三、铜价和供给增速预期
上文提到铜消费一年约2800万吨，那么全球铜资源储备呢？整个地球大约有50亿吨的铜资源量。但是这些铜很大一部分不具备开采条件，具备开采可能性的铜资源储备有8.7亿吨。请注意，有这么多可开采储备不代表可以在一年以内开采完毕，也不代表当地具备开采冶炼技术和对应的资金储备。 目前全球每年有1820万吨的铜来自于矿产开发，980万吨的铜来源于再回收后冶炼。
这就和石油市场类似，供给变动的预期会影响铜期货价格。全球铜矿供应进入低速增长周期，CRU数据显示2025年预计新增产能仅86万吨，且集中于2025H2投产。
四、铜价和贸易保护主义
2025年对铜价贡献最多的就是特朗普了。 美国有45%的铜依赖于进口，主要进口来源地依次为智利（38%），加拿大（28%），墨西哥（8%）。
早在今年1月28日，特朗普称会对铜征收进口关税。如今来自加拿大和墨西哥的铜几乎肯定会被加征关税，更大的悬念来自于其他国家的铜收多少关税。
在最终措施出台之前，很多贸易商将库存趁着高关税大棒落地之前转移到美国的仓库之中。等关税大棒落地之后，就涨价卖出以此来套利。把铜大量运输到美国囤货，又会引起其他地方铜紧缺，引发连环效应。
2025年第二季度铜价展望
综上所述，Pepperstone认为贸易保护主义已经取代了宏观经济因素成为了近期铜上涨的第一大推手。征收关税会直接促使美铜价格高于伦敦铜价。目前的溢价，更像是市场对于关税比例的预期，价差计算的预期关税在15%。如果未来加征25%关税的预期不断升温，那么可以预见美铜和伦敦铜的价差会进一步拉大， 25%的关税下价差可以达到2423美元，对应美铜在12116美元/吨或5.5美元/磅。这还没有计入铜库存错配引发的涨价效应 。除非未来出现铜能豁免关税的情况，否则铜价易涨难跌，小规模的回调或为长期多头的介入提供机会。
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