USD/JPY(20260629)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
Bank of America predicts the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three times this year. Danske Bank believes the Fed will raise rates at least twice more, and US interest rates still have room to rise further. Goldman Sachs believes Warsh's hawkish stance will exacerbate volatility in short-term US Treasuries. UBS states the market overestimates the risk of rate hikes and expects rates to remain unchanged in 2026 and easing to resume in early 2027.
Technical Analysis:
Tod
Pin Bar
USD/JPY(20260626)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
Data released on Thursday showed signs of a recovery in U.S. consumer demand amid rising inflationary pressures.
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in June showed that inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.3% month-over-month in May 2026, reversing the stagnation in April and indicating that household spending remains resilient.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% last week, but updated quarterly projections show that p
XAUUSD | Accumulation Below Value Is Not a ReversalXAUUSD | Accumulation Below Value Is Not a Reversal: 4,087.73 Must Be Accepted
Gold is trading near 4,079 inside a developing intraday accumulation zone between 4,073.13 and 4,080.35. Accumulation, however, does not automatically confirm a bullish reversal.
The multi-timeframe structure remains divided:
• 5m, 15m and 1H: bearish and exhausted, with absorption developing.
• 4H: bearish structure despite positive pullback delta.
• Daily: broader bullish structure, but current flow remains beari
USD/JPY(20260624)Today's AnalysisMarket News:
Deutsche Bank research analyst Michael Hsueh stated in a report that "the Fed's repricing, coupled with strong US macroeconomic data, is the main reason for the decline in gold prices." The bank has lowered its third-quarter gold price forecast to $4,300 per ounce, a reduction of more than one-fifth from its previous forecast, and adjusted its forecast for the last three months of the year to $4,800 per ounce.
Similar adjustments were made by Goldman Sachs. Last week, the institu
XAUUSD | THE CITADEL LOST VALUEXAUUSD | THE CITADEL LOST VALUE
Gold has fallen below both governing auctions.
Six-day profile: VAH 4,334.50 | POC 4,191.35 | VAL 4,131.00
NY-open profile: control near 4,188.94
Spot: 4,099.64
This is bearish repricing below value, but the final impulse printed a selling climax near 4,098-4,100.
That means the trend is bearish and the location is late. Do not chase the low.
BULL GATE | 4,108.77
Entry: accepted retest 4,103.48-4,108.77
SL1: 4,097.22 | mitigated shield
SL2: 4,094.62 | tailgate
XAUUSD | Gold Is Sitting on a Fed TrapdoorXAUUSD | Gold Is Sitting on a Fed Trapdoor
Gold is not giving traders a clean trend.
It is sitting on a trapdoor.
Above it: stacked supply.
Below it: failed-repair risk.
In the middle: exactly where retail usually gets chopped to pieces.
That is the chart going into the Fed.
And this is not the kind of chart you chase.
This is the kind of chart where the first candle can look brilliant, feel obvious, pull everyone in… and still be completely wrong.
Because Fed day does not reward the loud
XAUUSD | FOMC: Price Spikes, Value DecidesXAUUSD | Tomorrow’s FOMC Trap: Price Can Spike — Value Must Prove It
Gold is entering FOMC day in one of the most dangerous places on the chart:
Not at clean resistance.
Not at clean support.
But inside a value battlefield.
That is where most traders get trapped.
They see a fast candle.
They see a breakout.
They see a rejection.
They react.
But on FOMC day, the first move is often not information.
It is liquidity.
The real signal comes after the first move, when the market tells us whet
XAUUSD CPI Battlefield: GC1 Rejects or Confirms the Repair
Gold is not asking traders to predict the first spike.
Gold is asking traders to read value, wait for acceptance, and let GC1 confirm whether the repair is real or only a trap.
STRATEGY:
Neutral / Bearish Wait
Repair-long only after acceptance.
Short continuation only after failed reclaim.
MAIN READ:
XAUUSD is trading inside a critical auction zone after a strong sell campaign from the upper distribution area into the lower shelf near 4,172.42.
The bounce from that low is important, but it
Market Learning Series - Chapter 4Why Volume Matters More Than Most Beginners Think
Introduction
When most beginners look at a chart, their attention immediately goes to price.
They focus on whether the stock is moving up or down.
Very few spend time understanding volume.
However, experienced market participants often view volume as one of the most important pieces of information available on a chart.
Price shows what happened.
Volume helps us understand how much participation was involved in making it happen.
_________________
3 Avwap Trading SetupTrading a breakout using 3 system Avwap
Primary Avwap
Plotted at key primary areas
Breakout Avwap
Plotted at the last rejected candle of primary Avwap
Price should reject the Avwap atleast 2 times to qualify as Breakout vwap.
Climax Avwap
Plotted below last candle that is touching the Primary or Breakout Avwap on the upside.
Similarly like the Breakout Avwap, Climax Avwap needs the price to take support on it atleast 2 times.
For Bearish setup its in reverse.
BTC Continuation Acceleration Protocol (CAP) 3HBOS confirmed at the range high. Continuation Acceleration Protocol (CAP) short sequence activated.
TP1 tagged at 78,000.
TP1 tagged again at 75,200.
Price sitting at 74,675 as of this post.
Gate 1: Bearish regime confirmed on the daily. Range distribution phase preceding the BOS.
Gate 2: BOS printed clean at 79,800. No ambiguity.
Gate 3: OTE retrace into the broken structure zone before continuation.
Gate 4: CVD turned negative on the 1H confirming sell-side control through the sequence.
Gate
BTCUSD — Daily Volume Roadmap Inside an Extended DeclineBTCUSD is now in its tenth consecutive daily decline after the trend that began on March 29.
BTCUSD has already moved deep into the decline, so chasing lower becomes less clean. But the chart has not repaired enough to say the downside move is finished.
That matters because the move is no longer early, but the chart has not yet produced enough recovery structure to treat the decline as complete.
The higher-timeframe range still controls the larger downside context.
The daily chart is working
ETH 3H: VRVP Revisit Before the Real Move UpETH at 2311 on the 3H, sitting just under the 2320 pivot that has held as the range midpoint for weeks.
Structure context:
Price has been compressing inside an ascending channel from the April lows. Multiple swing attempts at 2420 have all failed to clear the 2480 liquidity pool sitting above. Each rejection has come with diminishing follow-through on the bid side. That pattern points lower before it points higher.
VRVP context:
The heaviest volume node on this range sits down near 2066. Price
BTC 1D: Trendline Break Pressing Into ResistanceBTC has broken above the daily descending trendline and is now pressing into the overhead resistance cluster between $80,400 and $81,200.
VRVP at $72,777 is holding as support below. That level is the floor of this structure.
Two things that matter here:
Does price close the daily above the trendline or get pushed back into it.
Whether the delta on the current candle confirms buyers are in control or whether this is thin short-covering running out of steam.
Resistance accepted means structur
USD/JPY(20260417)Today's AnalysisMarket Update:
International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol told the Associated Press on Thursday that Europe's "jet fuel reserves may only last about six weeks," and warned that if the ongoing conflict with Iran disrupts oil supplies, Europe could see flight cancellations "very soon."
Technical Analysis:
Today's Buy/Sell Threshold:
158.89
Support and Resistance Levels:
159.92
159.54
159.29
158.50
158.25
157.86
Trading Strategy:
A break above 159.29 suggests a buy
How To: Bearish Breakaway w/ Tools, Indicators & StrategyHey everyone, thanks for joining! Below is the Quick Notes for the audio:
What is a Bearish Breakaway?
A Rare Reversal Candlestick Pattern that consists of 5 Candles, broken up into 3 parts:
Pt 1) Large Bullish Candle
Pt 2) 3 Small Bullish Candles
Pt 3) Large Bearish Candle (Confirmation)
What indicators can be used to Confirm?
1) Volume - Dwindles after the first Large Bullish Candle then Increases after the Large Bearish Candle
2) RSI - The reversal is part of a Bullish Divergence
C/USDT (1H) – Trendline Breakout & Demand Zone RetestThis setup presents a potential spot long opportunity on the 1-hour timeframe, supported by multiple technical factors aligning at a key area of interest.
Technical Logic:
Trendline Breakout: Price has successfully broken above the major descending trendline that had been capping upside momentum, indicating a potential shift in market structure.
Volume Profile Confluence: The breakout is supported by a strong demand zone (purple box) perfectly aligned with the Point of Control (POC) on
3 Separator Trades on Gold Future GC1! 30.03.2026The last trade has no adequate separation, below VWAP, but its in direction of the short term trend.
Like the long trade on 27.03.2026, had no adequate separation too, but was in trend direction as well.
SL placement can be adjusted, a bit wider sometimes, for example above or below the last High/Low, before the possible reverse was initiated.
Viewed options today are GC1!.
4 Separator Trades on Gold Future 27.03.2026 - Super Low RiskUsing the ATR to look for adequate separation above or below VWAP.
(ca. 20 % of the Daily ATR) with the price range measurement tool
If the price is separated ca. 20 % or more away from VWAP, look for a reversal on the 5 min chart, with conformation from the 2nd reverse candle continuing beyond the 1st reverse candle, for a probable move aiming back at VWAP.
Duration: Minutes to 2 Hours
Tight SL above the 1st reverse candle. Nice risk reward ratios.
Most likely hit TP: ca. 20 % of the Dail
MBT1!: If all you have is a hammer, every problem becomes a nailI was always told that you need the right tool for the job. In trading, if the only tool you use is Price Action, you’re going to treat every move the same. But under the hood, not all price moves are created equal.
Look at these two charts of Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT1!). On the left, we have the 4H, on the right the Weekly.
Despite the massive difference in timeframes, the "engine" is telling the exact same story.
In both cases, you can see price pushing higher. To some, this might look lik
MCL1! Volume Polarity is flashing the same warning that precededHistory doesn’t always repeat, but it often rhymes.
On March 20th, Volume Polarity showed clear signs of exhaustion:
Bullish volume reached extreme levels (red dots)
Raw volume differential crossed under the smoothed differential
Bearish divergences began printing (orange dots)
This was followed by a sharp $14.23 drop.
We are now seeing an almost identical setup after several days of sideways chop:
Bullish volume is once again pushing into extreme territory
Raw differential has c






















