GOLD - The hunt for liquidity before the fall to 3900...FX:XAUUSD has completely unwound the bullish momentum generated by the recent news and has printed fresh local lows. The market remains in both a local and broader bearish trend, driven by persistent fundamental and geopolitical uncertainty
Gold continues to trade under pressure, with sellers firmly in control. The next key catalysts will be the U.S. Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations reports. The technical outlook remains bearish, with price making new local lows while still holding above the key 3960 support area. Before the broader decline resumes, the market may enter a liquidity sweep phase, with downside potential extending toward 3940ā3900.
Bearish drivers: Escalation of geopolitical tensions, Rising oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar, Hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric, Strong U.S. economic data
Bullish drivers: Geopolitical de-escalation, Weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment data, End-of-week profit-taking
Resistance levels: 4028, 4043, 4065
Support levels: 3960, 3943
The U.S. dollar remains in a strong bullish trend, reinforcing the bearish outlook for gold. Technically, the market is developing a breakout structure around the 3960ā3940 support zone. A sustained break and close below this area could trigger another leg lower.
However, before the next sell-off, a short squeeze toward the 4028ā4065 resistance zone remains possible. A false breakout of this area could attract fresh selling pressure and accelerate the broader downtrend
Best regards,
R. Linda 
Short
BITCOIN - A false breakout of resistance in a bear market BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P is forming a retest of the key 64,500 resistance level as part of a countertrend correction, trapping late buyers while the market remains in a liquidity sweep phase
The broader trend remains bearish. Unstable ETF flows, the lack of meaningful fundamental support, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on the market.
Within the broader bear market, the market maker has swept liquidity above 64,500 before pushing price back into the trading range. Bitcoin remains in a 62,000ā65,000 consolidation zone, while the higher-timeframe trend continues to point lower. A short squeeze into the resistance area could trigger another sell-off toward the 60Kā50K region
Resistance levels: 64,450, 64,700, 65,600
Support levels: 62,750, 61,300
A retest of the liquidity pool above 64,450 may attract renewed selling pressure. If bears successfully defend this key resistance zone, it would further confirm the prevailing bearish market structure and increase the probability of a decline toward 62,750 and 61,300
Best regards,
R. Linda 
Short
GOLD - Anticipating a short squeeze before the decline continuesICMARKETS:XAUUSD experienced a short squeeze around the key liquidity zone following Tuesday's CPI release. However, the market quickly regained its bearish momentum and resumed selling in line with the prevailing trend
The U.S. dollar remains in consolidation, as does the broader market, but the Dollar Index (DXY) continues to maintain its broader bullish trend, keeping pressure on gold. The lack of fundamental support, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions, continues to favor the bears. The escalation of the U.S.āIran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz remains a key source of uncertainty
Gold is still under pressure, with sellers maintaining control and using every rebound as an opportunity to initiate new short positions. The next major catalysts will be the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Warsh. The daily technical structure remains bearish.
Bearish drivers : Escalation of the geopolitical conflict, Higher oil prices, Hawkish Fed rhetoric, Technical sell-on-rallies
Bullish drivers : Geopolitical de-escalation, Weaker-than-expected inflation data (including PPI), Dovish Fed commentary
Resistance levels: 4062, 4103
Support levels: 4021, 3986, 3960
Technically, gold is testing the 4021 intermediate support level. A local false breakdown could trigger a countertrend rebound toward the 4062 resistance zone to sweep liquidity before the broader downtrend resumes toward 3986ā3960
Best regards,
R. Linda Short 
How Will Gold Perform After the Two Major Economic Releases?Market Outlook
Trend
* The medium-term trend remains bearish, with price continuing to trade below the descending trendline and still unable to establish a Higher High market structure.
* Price is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, formed by the ascending and descending trendlines. A decisive breakout from this pattern will determine the next major directional move.
Resistance Levels
šµ 4,053 ā 4,055 ā Near-term resistance and the first key breakout level.
šµ 4,096 ā 4,098 ā Major resistance, aligned with the descending trendline and a key supply zone.
* An H4 candle close above 4,096 would invalidate the current bearish outlook and open the door for further upside.
* If price is rejected within the 4,053ā4,096 resistance zone, selling pressure is likely to return.
Support Levels
š¢ 4,006 ā 4,008 ā Immediate support and the lower boundary of the current consolidation range.
š¢ 3,973 ā 3,975 ā Strong support and a key H4 demand zone.
* Holding above 4,008 keeps the short-term recovery scenario intact.
* An H4 candle close below 4,008 would increase the probability of a decline toward 3,975.
āø»
Trading Plan
š¢ BUY GOLD
* Entry: 3,975 ā 3,973
* Stop Loss: 3,963
* Take Profit: 200 / 500 / 1000 pips
š“ SELL GOLD
* Entry: 4,096 ā 4,098
* Stop Loss: 4,108
* Take Profit: 200 / 500 / 1000 pips
Risk Management
* Risk no more than 1ā2% of your account equity per trade.
* Wait for a confirmed breakout or rejection signal before entering a position.
* Consider moving your Stop Loss to breakeven once the trade reaches a reasonable profit level to protect your capital and minimize risk. Short 
Germany DAX 40 ($DE40) 4H: Major Trendline BreakdownGermany DAX 40 ( ICMARKETS:DE40 ) 4H: Major Trendline Breakdown Underway ā Awaiting Bearish Confirmation Below 24,770
### š©šŖ Germany DAX 40 Index ( ICMARKETS:DE40 ) 4H Technical Update (Ref: DE40_2026-07-16_12-08-35.png)
We are releasing a high-priority technical update on the Germany DAX 40 ( ICMARKETS:DE40 ) tracking the 4-Hour (4H) structural matrix. The market has triggered a major shift in short-term order flow, aggressively challenging the lower boundaries of our previously defined equilibrium zone.
The index is currently trading down at **24,825.90**, exhibiting heavy institutional distribution as selling pressure accelerates.
---
### š Structural Breakdown & Core Validation Parameters:
1. **The LTA & 200-EMA Breaches:** Price action has systematically sliced through both the primary multi-day **Ascending Support Trendline (red diagonal LTA)** and the institutional **200-period EMA (purple line at 24,964.34)**. Reclaiming a position below these dynamic indicators heavily favors sell-side continuation.
2. **The 24,770 Boundary Test:** Sellers are now confronting a major historical horizontal shelf located around the **24,770** domain (anchored by our key red horizontal baselines at **24,814.69** and **24,790.38**). This is the absolute floor of the macro rectangle pattern.
---
### š Projected Markdown Scenarios: Waiting for the 4H Close
As the current technical landscape unfolds, our tactical playbook focuses entirely on candle closure validation:
* **The Bearish Confirmation Trigger:** If the active 4H candle registers a decisive close **below the 24,770 support floor**, it will confirm a structural range expansion to the downside.
* **First Downside Target (24,600.00):** Upon confirmation of the breakdown, the immediate mechanical destination sits at the key swing low baseline from late June, mapped strictly at **24,600.00**.
* **Macro Expansion (Wave 3 / Fibonacci Projection):** Sustaining price acceptance below 24,600 opens the technical highway for a textbook Elliott Wave 3 contraction or an extended Fibonacci expansion model. We will monitor order flow at the primary targets to project deeper discount arrays.
### š Trading Execution Parameters:
* **Immediate Bias:** Bearish (Breakdown Monitoring Phase)
* **Critical Support Pivot:** 24,770
* **Confirmation Requirement:** Confirmed 4H candle close below 24,790
* **Immediate Technical Target:** 24,600.00
* **Invalidation Anchor:** Price returning and closing back above the 200-EMA corridor.
---
š **ChartPro Data**
*European Equity Architecture, Structural Breakdowns & Systematic Risk Management.*
ā ļø **Disclaimer:** For educational and informational purposes only. This active market study represents a personal trading framework and does not constitute financial or investment advice. 
Short
MASON XAUUSD ā Bullish Setup Above 4,012 Buy Zone
XAUUSD is trading around 4,036 after forming a short-term base above the 4,012 buy order zone. Price is still below the descending trendline, but the current structure shows that buyers are trying to defend the lower support area.
The priority view is bullish recovery, as long as gold holds above 4,012 and breaks the 4,065 resistance with clear confirmation.
Technical View
Gold is currently moving inside a short-term corrective structure after the previous bearish move. However, the selling pressure is slowing down around the 4,012 buy order zone, where price has started to build a stronger reaction base.
The 4,012 area is the most important support on this chart. If gold pulls back into this zone and holds, it may confirm a higher low before the next bullish leg. This would support the idea that buyers are preparing for a recovery move.
The descending trendline is still acting as the main resistance. Price needs to break above this trendline and the 4,065 resistance level to confirm stronger bullish momentum. Without this breakout, the recovery may remain limited.
The 4,065 level is the first key resistance. A clean breakout and retest above this level may open the way toward the 4,119 sell order resistance zone. This is the main upside target marked on the chart.
If buyers continue to control the structure above 4,065, gold may extend higher toward the Fibonacci resistance area above 4,119. But the first important step is still confirmation above the trendline.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,036
Main buy order zone: 4,012ā4,020
Short-term support: 4,020ā4,030
Breakout resistance: 4,065
Descending trendline resistance: 4,060ā4,070
Sell order resistance: 4,119ā4,125
Higher Fibonacci target: 4,145ā4,160
Invalidation: below 3,980
Trading Plan
Buy Priority: 4,012ā4,020
Condition: wait for bullish rejection, higher low formation, or price holding above the buy order zone before looking for continuation.
SL: below 3,980
TP1: 4,065
TP2: 4,119ā4,125
TP3: 4,145ā4,160
Alternative Scenario
If gold breaks above 4,065 directly, wait for a retest of this level as support before looking for buy continuation toward 4,119. A clean hold above 4,065 would confirm that the short-term recovery is gaining strength.
Sell View
Sell is not the priority while price holds above 4,012. A short-term sell reaction may appear around 4,065 or 4,119, but it should only be treated as a correction unless gold breaks below 3,980.
Final View
Overall, gold is still below the descending trendline, but the price action around 4,012 shows that buyers are defending the market. The cleaner plan is to wait for price to hold the buy order zone or break above 4,065. If confirmation appears, the bullish path toward 4,119 and 4,145 remains in focus.
Will gold hold the 4,012 buy zone and break the trendline, or retest the lower support first before the next bullish move?
Long 
Short
Engineers India Share Price Analysis: Multi-Year Consolidation NEngineers India (EIL) is approaching a crucial inflection point on the 3-month chart, where a prolonged higher timeframe consolidation is nearing completion. After a sharp rally from the 2023 lows, the stock has spent several quarters consolidating between ā¹200 and ā¹250, allowing earlier gains to be absorbed while building a stronger price base.
The repeated rejection near ā¹248ā250 has established this zone as a key long-term resistance. At the same time, every corrective phase has formed higher lows, indicating that buyers are accumulating on declines rather than exiting positions. This tightening price structure often precedes a decisive directional move.
Volume activity during the 2023ā2025 rally expanded meaningfully, suggesting institutional participation behind the uptrend. Although volumes have moderated during the recent consolidation, there has been no signs of aggressive distribution, which is typically a constructive characteristic of healthy base-building.
A sustained breakout above ā¹250 on strong volume would confirm the completion of this multi-quarter consolidation and could open the door for the next structural leg higher. Until then, the stock remains in a consolidation phase with a positive long-term bias.
From a positional perspective, Engineers India stands out as a high-conviction watchlist candidate, where investors can monitor for a confirmed breakout rather than chase prices prematurely. A breakout from such higher timeframe consolidations often results in stronger and more sustainable trends than shorter-term technical setups. 
Long
XAUUSD ā Buy Zone Holding, Bullish Recovery Setup
Gold is trading around $4,029 after pulling back into the short-term Buy zone OB. The market reacted from the lower structure near $3,984 and is now trying to build a recovery from the current demand area.
From an SMC perspective, gold has already swept the day low liquidity and started to recover above the buy zone. The recent pullback into $4,017ā$4,030 looks more like a liquidity retest than a full bearish continuation. As long as price can hold above this OB area, buyers still have a chance to push gold back toward the Sell FVG zone first, then the higher liquidity around $4,104.
The main plan is to avoid selling low after price has already reached the demand area. If gold holds the Buy zone OB and forms bullish confirmation, the next move can target $4,045ā$4,052 first. A clean break above that area would open the path toward the liquidity zone around $4,104 and the upper OB area near $4,120ā$4,130.
Buy setup 1
Condition:
Gold holds the Buy zone OB around $4,017ā$4,030 and forms bullish rejection with lower timeframe MSS / CHOCH.
Entry: $4,017ā$4,030
SL: below $3,984
TP1: $4,045ā$4,052
TP2: $4,075
TP3: $4,104
TP4: $4,120ā$4,130
Buy setup 2
Condition:
If gold breaks above the Sell FVG area and retests it as support, bullish continuation becomes stronger.
Entry: above $4,052 after breakout retest
SL: below $4,017
TP1: $4,075
TP2: $4,104
TP3: $4,120ā$4,130
Buy setup 3
Condition:
If gold sweeps below the current buy zone but quickly reclaims $4,017ā$4,030, this can create a stronger liquidity-trap buy setup.
Entry: after reclaim above $4,017ā$4,030
SL: below the sweep low
TP1: $4,045ā$4,052
TP2: $4,075
TP3: $4,104
Sell scalping setup
Condition:
Selling is not the main priority. A sell scalp is only valid if gold reaches the Sell FVG zone around $4,045ā$4,052 and shows clear bearish rejection.
Entry: $4,045ā$4,052 after rejection
SL: above $4,075
TP1: $4,030
TP2: $4,017
TP3: $3,984
Key levels
Current price area: $4,029
Buy zone OB: $4,017ā$4,030
Day low liquidity: $3,984
Strong low liquidity: $3,942
Sell FVG reaction zone: $4,045ā$4,052
Short-term liquidity: $4,104
Upper OB target zone: $4,120ā$4,130
Bullish continuation confirmation: clean break above $4,052
Stronger bullish confirmation: clean break above $4,104
Bullish invalidation: clean 2H close below $3,984
My current view is that gold is trying to build a bullish recovery from the Buy zone OB. The Prime Gold plan is to avoid selling into demand and wait for confirmation around $4,017ā$4,030. If buyers defend this area, gold may recover toward $4,045, $4,075, $4,104 and potentially the upper OB zone around $4,120ā$4,130.
No confirmation, no trade.
Long 
XAUUSD: Bearish Wave 5 May Continue Today
Gold is showing weakness again after failing to hold the recovery structure above the short-term resistance area. From Kellyās view, the current chart suggests that price may be developing a bearish wave 5 move, with sellers still active below the 4,035ā4,040 sell zone.
The key idea is simple: gold is trying to rebound, but the structure still favours downside continuation while price remains below resistance.
ā” Market structure
The chart shows gold completed a short recovery after reacting from the lower area, but buyers failed to sustain momentum above the 4,062 resistance level. Price then started forming lower highs again and is now trading near 4,026.
The support zone around 4,015ā4,025 is currently being tested. If this area breaks with clear bearish pressure, gold may continue lower towards the Fibonacci 1.618 target zone around 3,960ā3,970.
The sell zone around 4,035ā4,040 is important. As long as price remains below this area, the bearish intraday structure remains active.
ā¤ Key levels
ā 4,035ā4,040: sell zone wave 4 and short-term resistance
ā 4,026: current reaction area
ā 4,015ā4,025: support area under pressure
ā 4,062: key resistance and bullish invalidation zone
ā 3,960ā3,970: Fibonacci 1.618 target and wave 5 downside area
ā Above 4,062: area where the bearish wave setup weakens
ā Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming a bearish 5-wave structure after the recovery failed near resistance.
Wave 1 created the first downside reaction from the recent high.
Wave 2 corrected higher but failed below resistance.
Wave 3 pushed price back into the support zone.
Wave 4 may now be forming around the 4,035ā4,040 sell area.
If this zone holds, wave 5 may continue lower towards the 3,960ā3,970 target.
This is why Kelly would not treat the current support reaction as a reversal yet. Price still needs to reclaim resistance before the bullish view becomes stronger.
āø Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to reject from the 4,035ā4,040 sell zone before expecting wave 5 continuation.
Sell zone: 4,035ā4,040 if bearish confirmation appears
Stop loss: above 4,062 or above the confirmed rejection high
Take profit 1: 4,015
Take profit 2: 3,990
Take profit 3: 3,960ā3,970
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,062 and holds with strong acceptance, the bearish wave 5 setup weakens. In that case, the market may shift back into a corrective recovery structure.
ā Kellyās view
For Kelly, this is a bearish intraday setup. Gold is still trading below the sell zone, and the Elliott structure suggests one more downside leg may develop if sellers defend resistance.
The cleaner plan is to avoid chasing price at support and wait for a retest reaction around 4,035ā4,040.
Gold is still under short-term pressure.
If the sell zone holds, wave 5 may continue towards the Fibonacci target below.
Share your view below.
Short 
Long
Short
USDCAD - From consolidation to downward distributionFX:USDCAD is forming a reversal pattern following its recent strong rally. The market appears to be transitioning from a consolidation phase into a distribution phase
The U.S. dollar has entered a period of consolidation, while the Canadian dollar is beginning to strengthen, putting additional pressure on the pair.
After the strong advance, USDCAD moved into a 1.4150ā1.4250 trading range. Instead of continuing higher, price is now showing signs of a reversal. Buyer participation may lead to a distribution phase, with the market potentially moving lower to fill the existing fair value gap (FVG)
Resistance levels: 1.4150, 1.4177
Support levels: 1.4092, 1.4024
Technically, after breaking below the consolidation support, bears are attempting to keep the price below the 1.4150 range boundary. As long as this level remains under sellers' control, the market may continue its decline toward 1.4092 and 1.4024
Best regards,
R. Linda GOLD - A countertrend correction before a decline FX:XAUUSD has reversed lower from the 4120ā4133 resistance zoneāexactly the scenario we had been anticipating since the end of last weekāand is now testing the 4050 support area while forming a false breakout. The fundamental and geopolitical backdrop remains weak, suggesting that the broader decline may continue
Gold fell sharply on Monday, breaking below the $4100 level as renewed tensions in the Middle East boosted the U.S. dollar. Although the dollar is currently consolidating, it remains in a broader bullish trend, supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The overall market remains under bearish pressure, with the technical outlook still negative. The next major catalysts will be the U.S. CPI report, Fed Chair Warsh's speech, and further developments in the Middle East.
Drivers:
Bearish for gold: Escalation of the conflict (strengthening the U.S. dollar while pushing oil prices and inflation higher), Hawkish Fed signals, Strong U.S. inflation data
Bullish for gold: Geopolitical de-escalation, Weaker-than-expected CPI data, Dovish comments from Warsh
Resistance levels: 4093, 4108, 4133
Support levels: 4054, 4021
Technically, the market is forming a false breakout below the daily support level. Bulls are attempting to defend the area, which could trigger a corrective rebound toward the 4090ā4110 interest zone before the broader downtrend resumes toward 4020ā3960
Best regards,
R. Linda Short 
XAUUSD ā Is 4,080 the Sell Trap?Gold is still moving inside a descending price channel.
Price is trading around 4,050 - 4,060, right near the middle zone of the channel.
This is not a clean buy area.
And it is not the best place to chase a sell either.
For me, todayās chart is about one question:
Will gold retest the sell zone first before dropping deeper?
The simple read
Gold remains under short-term bearish pressure while price stays inside the descending channel.
The nearest sell reaction area is around 4,080 - 4,091.
This zone also lines up with the Fibonacci reaction area and the upper part of the current correction.
If gold pushes into this zone and shows rejection, sellers may try to take control again.
The first downside area to watch is 4,043 - 4,027.
If that support fails, the next deeper target becomes 3,985, then the key support zone near 3,945.
Key price zones
Current price area: 4,050 - 4,060
Middle channel zone: 4,050
Sell reaction zone: 4,080 - 4,091
First support: 4,043 - 4,027
Fibo extension support: 3,985
Key support zone: 3,945
Bearish pressure weakens above: 4,091
Trading plan
š Sell reaction scenario
If gold retests 4,080 - 4,091 and shows clear rejection:
Sellers may try to push price back toward 4,043 - 4,027.
If this support zone breaks, the next downside area to watch is 3,985.
A deeper move may target the key support zone near 3,945.
I prefer waiting for rejection confirmation instead of selling randomly in the middle.
š Short-term bounce scenario
If gold holds above 4,043 - 4,027:
A small recovery may appear.
Price could retest 4,080 - 4,091 again.
But this bounce is still only a reaction while gold remains inside the descending channel.
A stronger bullish view needs price to break and hold above 4,091.
š Deeper correction scenario
If 4,027 fails clearly:
The correction structure becomes stronger.
Gold may continue toward 3,985, where the Fibonacci extension support is waiting.
If buyers still fail to react there, the key support zone near 3,945 becomes important.
Gold is not giving a clean reversal signal yet.
The chart is still respecting the descending channel.
That means I do not want to chase the current price.
I want to see either:
A clean rejection from 4,080 - 4,091.
Or a confirmed reaction from 4,043 - 4,027.
Main view:
Gold remains cautious below 4,091.
4,080 - 4,091 is the sell reaction zone.
4,043 - 4,027 is the first support.
3,985 and 3,945 are the deeper zones if the correction continues.
Reaction first.
Confirmation second.
Trade last.
No confirmation = no trade.
Do you think gold will reject from 4,080 - 4,091, or break the channel first?
Short 
All Eyes Are on Todayās Key CPI Report.Market Outlook
Trend
* The medium-term trend remains bearish, with price continuing to trade below the descending trendline.
* Although price is recovering from the support zone, it has yet to break above the confluence of the descending trendline and horizontal resistance. Therefore, the bearish trend still has the upper hand.
Resistance Levels
šµ 4,058 ā 4,060 ā Near-term resistance and the first key breakout level.
šµ 4,089 ā 4,091 ā Major resistance, aligned with the descending trendline and a key supply zone.
* Only an H4 candle close above 4,089 would provide confirmation that the trend is shifting back to bullish.
* If bearish rejection signals appear in this area, selling pressure is likely to return.
Support Levels
š¢ 3,975 ā 3,977 ā Strong support and a key demand zone on the H4 timeframe.
* Holding above 3,977 would keep the short-term recovery intact.
* A break below 3,977 would confirm the continuation of the bearish trend and could lead to further downside toward lower support levels.
āø»
Trading Plan
š¢ BUY GOLD
* Entry: 3,977 ā 3,975
* Stop Loss: 3,965
* Take Profit: 200 / 500 / 1000 pips
š“ SELL GOLD
* Entry: 4,089 ā 4,091
* Stop Loss: 4,101
* Take Profit: 200 / 500 / 1000 pips
Risk Management
* Risk no more than 1ā2% of your account equity per trade.
* Wait for confirmation before entering any position.
* Consider moving your Stop Loss to breakeven once the trade reaches a reasonable profit level to protect your capital and reduce risk. Long 
XAUUSD: ABC Recovery Is Forming After the Elliott Drop
Gold is trying to recover after completing a sharp bearish Elliott wave sequence near the lower price area. From Kellyās view, the market has already reacted from the recent low, but the current move still looks more like an ABC corrective recovery rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.
The key idea is simple: gold may continue to rebound in the short term, but the reaction around each resistance zone will decide whether buyers can keep control.
ā” Market structure
The chart shows gold previously moved in a strong bearish sequence, creating lower highs and lower lows before reaching the final wave 5 area near the lower base. After that, price started to recover and is now forming a short-term ABC structure.
Price is currently trading around 4,027, close to the small sell zone near 4,038. If gold can hold above the buy wave C area around 4,011, the recovery may continue towards the higher reaction zones.
The important resistance above is the Elliott wave completed sell zone around 4,060ā4,070. This is where buyers need to prove strength, because rejection from this area may bring another pullback.
ā¤ Key levels
ā 4,011: buy wave C zone and short-term support
ā 4,027: current reaction area
ā 4,038: nearest sell zone
ā 4,060ā4,070: Elliott completed zone and main resistance
ā 3,985ā3,990: lower support if wave C fails
ā Above 4,070: area where recovery gains stronger quality
ā Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have completed a bearish 5-wave move near the lower low. After that, the market is now building an ABC correction.
Wave A created the first rebound from the low.
Wave B pulled back into the current structure.
Wave C may develop from the 4,011 area if buyers defend support.
If wave C holds and price breaks above 4,038, gold may continue towards 4,060ā4,070. However, if price fails to hold 4,011, the ABC recovery weakens and gold may retest the lower base again.
āø Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to hold the buy wave C zone and show bullish confirmation.
Entry zone: 4,011ā4,020 if bullish confirmation appears
Stop loss: below the confirmed wave C low
Take profit 1: 4,038
Take profit 2: 4,060ā4,070
Take profit 3: 4,090 if momentum expands
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,011 and fails to reclaim this area, the ABC structure loses quality. In that case, price may return towards 3,985ā3,990 before forming a new base.
ā Kellyās view
For Kelly, this is a short-term ABC recovery setup after a completed bearish Elliott wave. The market is no longer in clean sell momentum at the low, but buyers still need to confirm strength through resistance.
The cleaner plan is to watch the reaction around 4,011 first. If buyers defend this zone, gold may continue recovering towards the sell zones above.
Gold is forming an ABC rebound.
If wave C holds, the next move may continue towards 4,038 and 4,060.
Share your view below.
Long 
XAUUSD ā Bearish Structure Holding Below Trendline
Gold is trading around $4,022 after rejecting from the short-term recovery area and moving back into the FVG sideways zone. The current structure remains bearish because price is still trading below the descending trendline, while the recent BOS confirms that sellers are still controlling the short-term direction.
From an SMC perspective, gold failed to build a strong bullish recovery after the previous downside move. Price rejected from the VL area, broke lower structure, and is now consolidating inside the FVG sideways area. This type of movement usually shows temporary accumulation before the next directional move, but as long as price stays below the OB + trendline sell zone, the main bias remains bearish.
The key area to watch is the sell zone around $4,065ā$4,078. This zone aligns with the descending trendline and the previous supply reaction, making it the main area where sellers may defend the structure again. If gold pulls back into this zone and forms bearish rejection, another downside continuation toward the day low around $3,984 and the strong low near $3,942 remains possible.
Sell setup 1
Condition:
Gold pulls back into the OB + trendline sell zone around $4,065ā$4,078 and forms bearish rejection with lower timeframe MSS / CHOCH.
Entry: $4,065ā$4,078
SL: above $4,100
TP1: $4,040
TP2: $4,000
TP3: $3,984
TP4: $3,942
Sell setup 2
Condition:
If gold breaks below the FVG sideways area and retests it as resistance, bearish continuation remains valid without waiting for a deeper pullback.
Entry: below $4,015 after breakdown retest
SL: above $4,040
TP1: $4,000
TP2: $3,984
TP3: $3,960
TP4: $3,942
Sell setup 3
Condition:
If gold sweeps above the FVG sideways area but fails to break the trendline, this can create a liquidity-trap sell setup.
Entry: after rejection below $4,065ā$4,078
SL: above the sweep high
TP1: $4,022
TP2: $4,000
TP3: $3,984
Buy scalping setup
Condition:
Buying is not the main priority. A buy scalp is only valid if gold sweeps the day low around $3,984 and forms a strong bullish rejection.
Entry: $3,984 after bullish rejection
SL: below $3,960
TP1: $4,000
TP2: $4,022
TP3: $4,040
Key levels
Current price area: $4,022
FVG sideways area: $4,015ā$4,040
OB + trendline sell zone: $4,065ā$4,078
VL reaction area: $4,095ā$4,110
Day low liquidity: $3,984
Strong low liquidity: $3,942
Bearish continuation confirmation: clean break below $4,015
Stronger bearish confirmation: clean break below $3,984
Bearish invalidation: clean 2H close above $4,100
My current view is that gold remains in a bearish structure while price stays below the descending trendline and the OB sell zone. The Prime Gold plan is to avoid buying too early inside the FVG sideways area and wait for either a pullback into $4,065ā$4,078 or a clean breakdown below $4,015 before looking for sell confirmation. If sellers continue to defend the trendline, gold may extend lower toward $3,984 and potentially $3,942.
No confirmation, no trade.
Short 
XAUUSD ā Bearish Structure, Sell Around OB
Gold is trading around $4,057 after breaking down from the short-term recovery structure. Price has rejected from the upper reaction area and is now pressing directly into the sell-side liquidity around $4,055, showing that sellers are still controlling the current structure.
From an SMC perspective, gold has already shown a bearish shift after failing to hold the previous bullish recovery. The recent move created weakness below the local BOS area, then price dropped strongly into the lower liquidity zone. As long as gold stays below the $4,078ā$4,085 OB sell zone and below the $4,121 buy-side liquidity area, the main structure remains bearish.
The main plan is to avoid buying too early while price is still under the OB zone. If gold pulls back into $4,078ā$4,085 and forms bearish rejection, this area can act as the key sell zone before another downside continuation toward the buy scalping liquidity around $4,020ā$4,030 and the lower OB zone near $3,960ā$3,975.
Sell setup 1
Condition:
Gold pulls back into the OB sell zone around $4,078ā$4,085 and forms bearish rejection with lower timeframe MSS / CHOCH.
Entry: $4,078ā$4,085
SL: above $4,105
TP1: $4,055
TP2: $4,020ā$4,030
TP3: $3,975
TP4: $3,960
Sell setup 2
Condition:
If gold breaks cleanly below $4,055 and retests this level as resistance, bearish continuation remains valid without waiting for a deeper pullback.
Entry: below $4,055 after breakdown retest
SL: above $4,078
TP1: $4,030
TP2: $4,020
TP3: $3,975
TP4: $3,960
Sell setup 3
Condition:
If gold sweeps back above the OB zone but fails to reclaim $4,121, this can create a stronger liquidity-trap sell setup.
Entry: after rejection below $4,121
SL: above $4,135
TP1: $4,078
TP2: $4,055
TP3: $4,020ā$4,030
Buy scalping setup
Condition:
Buying is not the main priority. A buy scalp is only valid if gold sweeps the $4,020ā$4,030 liquidity zone and forms a strong bullish rejection.
Entry: $4,020ā$4,030 after bullish rejection
SL: below $4,000
TP1: $4,055
TP2: $4,078ā$4,085
TP3: $4,105
Key levels
Current price area: $4,057
Immediate sell-side liquidity: $4,055
OB sell zone: $4,078ā$4,085
VL reaction zone: $4,090ā$4,105
Buy-side liquidity: $4,121
Buy scalping liquidity: $4,020ā$4,030
Lower OB target zone: $3,960ā$3,975
Major upper liquidity: $4,221
Bearish continuation confirmation: clean break below $4,055
Stronger bearish confirmation: clean break below $4,020
Bearish invalidation: clean 2H close above $4,121
My current view is that gold remains in a bearish structure while price stays below the OB sell zone. The Prime Gold plan is to wait for a pullback into $4,078ā$4,085 or a clean breakdown below $4,055 before looking for sell confirmation. If sellers continue to defend the OB, gold may extend lower toward $4,020ā$4,030 and potentially $3,960ā$3,975.
No confirmation, no trade.
Short 
Long
