S&P 500: Cracks Forming?

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The S&P 500 is chopping near record highs, and some traders may see downside risk.

The first pattern on today’s chart is October 6’s all-time of 7,845 -- less than half a percent above its previous record in early August. The index has made higher lows at a steeper angle, creating a potentially bearish ascending wedge.

Second, Friday’s high surpassed Thursday’s. A lower low followed. Such a bearish outside day could be viewed as a reversal signal.

Third, the index dipped under its 50-day simple moving average for the third time in barely a month. Is the intermediate-term uptrend fading?
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Next, the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) ended last week above a falling trendline that started in June. That may reflect growing risk.

Finally, SPX bounced at 7,508 on September 16 and 7,617 on October 1. While the index hasn’t broken down yet, declines through those levels may confirm the start of greater selling.

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