NVIDIA – Bumping Up Against Record HighsNVIDIA’s share price is experiencing an interesting run into the end of September as traders try and work out whether it can extend its run of gains through all time highs sitting just above the 184 level (184.55 Sept 22nd), a line in the sand that has capped the upside since the start of August (more on this in the technical update below).
With NVIDIA being the biggest company in the world by market capitalisation, currently sitting at a huge $4.34 trillion (No.2 Microsoft, $3.79 trillion), and it being the bellwether for AI performance, it’s not short of news flow to create periods of volatility.
Only on Monday, the company announced a $100 billion link up with Open AI to build new data centres and expand AI infrastructure together, which sent its stock price up 4% towards that 184 resistance, only for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in a speech on Tuesday to send it back lower again as investors banked profits, when he offered a more cautious outlook towards future Fed rate cuts into the end of the year.
Looking into the end of the week, the focus may be on US economic data again, with the release of the final US Q2 GDP reading at 1330 BST today, and perhaps more importantly, the PCE index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due tomorrow at 1330 BST. Traders seem to be very sensitive to these inflation readings, given that they could determine whether the Fed is able to cut interest rates again before the end of 2025. Any deviation from expectations, to the up or downside could have an outsized impact on sentiment towards the NVIDIA stock price into the Friday close.
Technical Update: Watching Record Highs
Since reaching its 184.48 high on August 12th, NVIDIA has twice attempted to break and close above this resistance, on August 28th and September 22nd. The latest attempt did set a new intraday high of 184.55, but as the chart below shows, resistance held again by the close, triggering another sell-off from that level.
This price action confirms the 184.48/184.55 range as a potentially key resistance area. A successful close above it could lead to a further phase of price strength.
While not a guarantee of continued upside, a closing break above 184.48/184.55 could open the path to 192.14, a level equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci extension. If this level were to also give way on a closing basis, the next resistance may prove to be 196.91, which is the higher 61.8% extension.
Of course, with resistance at 184.48/184.55 still capping price strength, there's also the risk that support levels could give way, possibly suggesting further downside in price activity.
Initial support may now be marked by 175.11, the Bollinger mid-average, which is currently containing the latest pullback in price. While a close below here may not confirm extended price weakness, it might open the door to test lower supports at 168.41, which is the September 17th low, possibly even 164.07, a level equal to the September 5th extreme.
The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Long
Long
Long
Long
Watchlist for the upcoming MonthWatchlist, I am leaving the buy and hold or technical analysis to the trader.
90% Equity Allocation
T (AT&T) – One of the largest U.S. telecom operators. Known for wireless, broadband, and media services. Defensive dividend stock, often favored for income but less growth.
HWM (Howmet Aerospace) – Supplies aerospace components, particularly jet engine parts and fastening systems. Strong tie to aviation cycles and Boeing/Airbus demand.
PLTR (Palantir Technologies) – A data analytics and AI-driven company with heavy government and enterprise contracts. Popular among growth investors for its AI positioning.
TPR (Tapestry) – Parent of luxury brands like Coach, Kate Spade, and Stuart Weitzman. A play on consumer discretionary spending and global luxury markets.
CBOE (Cboe Global Markets) – A major U.S. options exchange. Benefits from high volatility and increased derivatives trading.
STX (Seagate Technology) – A storage solutions company, specializing in HDDs and increasingly in data center storage. Sensitive to tech hardware cycles.
VST (Vistra Corp.) – A Texas-based power generator and retail electricity provider. Recently a big beneficiary of U.S. grid transition and power demand growth.
LDOS (Leidos Holdings) – Provides defense, IT, and engineering services. A government contractor with exposure to cybersecurity and national defense budgets.
RTX (RTX Corporation / Raytheon Technologies) – Aerospace & defense giant. Combines Pratt & Whitney engines and Raytheon defense systems. Key player in defense spending.
RPRX (Royalty Pharma) – Buys pharmaceutical royalties, giving exposure to drug revenues without direct R&D risks. A unique business model in biotech financing.
NFLX (Netflix) – Streaming leader. Strong global brand with massive original content library. Faces competition from Disney+, Amazon Prime, etc., but maintains scale advantage.
PM (Philip Morris International) – Tobacco company with a pivot toward smoke-free products (IQOS). Strong global distribution, especially outside the U.S.
AVGO (Broadcom) – A semiconductor and infrastructure software powerhouse. Key supplier to Apple and data centers. Huge in AI-driven chip demand.
UAN (CVR Partners LP) – Produces nitrogen fertilizer. Highly cyclical, tied to agricultural demand and natural gas pricing.
10% 2x Leverage Allocation
CAKE (Cheesecake Factory) – U.S. casual dining chain. Consumer discretionary, sensitive to economic cycles and inflation.
NVDA (NVIDIA) – AI and GPU leader. Critical to data centers, gaming, and autonomous vehicles. Market darling in AI revolution.
TSLA (Tesla) – EV leader, also expanding into energy storage and AI-driven autonomous driving. Strong growth but highly competitive sector.
GEV (GE Vernova, the energy spinoff of General Electric) – Focused on renewable and grid solutions. Plays into global decarbonization and power infrastructure demand.
MMM (3M) – Diversified industrial conglomerate (healthcare). Currently restructuring amid legal challenges, but historically a strong dividend payer.
Long
Long
OKLO — when nuclear momentum breaks resistanceSince late 2024, OKLO had been consolidating inside a clear rectangle between $17 and $59. The breakout from this long-term range triggered a new bullish impulse. The price has since returned to retest the breakout zone, now aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $51.94. The retest has completed, and the price is bouncing upward, confirming buyer interest.
Technically, the trend remains firmly bullish. The price closed above the prior range, EMAs are aligned below, and the volume spike during breakout supports genuine demand. The volume profile shows a clean path toward $100, indicating limited resistance ahead. The structure suggests a controlled rally rather than an exhausted move.
Fundamentally, OKLO is a next-generation SMR (Small Modular Reactor) company focused on delivering compact, efficient nuclear power solutions. Following its public debut via SPAC and recent capital injection, OKLO is transitioning from development to implementation. Institutional interest is holding strong, and the broader move toward decarbonization and energy independence places the company in a strategic position.
Target levels:
— First target: $100 — psychological and technical resistance
— Second target: $143 — projected from prior range breakout
OKLO isn’t just another clean energy ticker — it’s a quiet disruptor with nuclear potential. The chart broke out. The volume confirmed. Now it’s time to see if the market follows through. 
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Long
Gold Analysis – Is the Correction Over?Yesterday I maintained my bias that OANDA:XAUUSD correction could extend lower, with 3570 as the focus for the next swing low. I even sold rallies above 3640 zone with that scenario in mind.
However, after the CPI release, Gold dipped to 3620 zone but quickly recovered. That prompted me to lock in a modest 100 pips gain rather than fight the market.
A wise move in hindsight, since Gold is now back testing the 3650+ resistance zone.
So, is the correction finished?
➡️ Most probably, yes.
Here’s why:
• Bulls are defending the 3620 zone, stepping in strongly on dips.
• The chart is shaping into a rectangle, typically a continuation pattern, which suggests consolidation before trend resumption.
• Momentum is aligning again with the broader bullish trend.
Trading Plan:
• As long as 3620 holds, my strategy shifts to buying dips instead of selling rallies.
• A break above 3660 would open the path for continuation, with 3700 as the next bullish milestone.
The market has spoken – the correction seems to be losing steam, and the trend is ready to reassert itself. 🚀
Long
