GOLD - The Hunt for Liquidity Ahead of a Decline ICMARKETS:XAUUSD continues to form a countertrend correction, driven by the decline in oil prices. The fundamental backdrop remains weak...
The dollar is stagnating after a strong rally triggered by the Fed’s hawkish stance and rising interest rates. However, the Dollar Index remains strong, which continues to put pressure on gold. At the same time, the decline in oil prices has given the metal some room to recover. The market remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments.
There is not much major news ahead next week, with the key focus on PMI data and Friday’s Durable Goods Orders. Technically, gold remains under pressure from the bearish trend
Resistance levels: 4,402, 4,434, 4,511
Support levels: 4,340, 4,250, 4,200
Gold is forming a countertrend correction. The dollar remains strong, while the fundamental backdrop is unfavorable for gold due to the Fed’s hawkish stance and rising interest rates.
Technically, the key focus is on two triggers: 4,402–4,434. A short squeeze could trigger a decline toward 4,340–4,250
Best regards,
R. Linda! 
Short
XAUUSD — Wave 5 Lower Toward 4,280
From Kelly’s view, gold is still trading inside a broader bearish structure. Price is currently around 4,352, while the recent rebound remains below the previous lower-high area near 4,380–4,395.
The key idea is simple: the current move may be completing a corrective Wave (4) around resistance, while the main structure still favors another bearish leg toward 4,320, 4,305, and potentially the 4,280 Wave (5) target zone.
⟡ Market structure
Gold continues to show a sequence of lower highs after failing around the 4,390 area.
The immediate resistance zone sits around 4,340–4,350, where the chart marks the projected Wave (4) sell zone. Price is currently testing this area, so the next reaction becomes important.
If sellers defend this zone and price breaks back below 4,320, bearish momentum could strengthen.
The 4,305 level is the next structural support. A confirmed breakdown below this level may expose the 4,278–4,288 area, where the projected Wave (5) completion and Fibonacci extension overlap.
➤ Key levels
◌ Current price area: 4,350–4,355
◌ Main sell zone: 4,340–4,350
◌ Strong resistance: 4,380–4,395
◌ First support: 4,318–4,325
◌ Strong support: 4,305
◌ First target: 4,320
◌ Second target: 4,305
◌ Main target: 4,278–4,288
◌ Invalidation: Above 4,395
⌁ Elliott Wave view
Wave (1): The first bearish impulse started from the recent local high and pushed price lower.
Wave (2): Gold produced a corrective rebound before sellers returned.
Wave (3): The next bearish leg extended toward the 4,320 area.
Wave (4): Price is now attempting another corrective recovery toward the 4,340–4,350 resistance zone.
Wave (5): If sellers reject this area, the final bearish leg could extend below 4,305 toward the 4,278–4,288 completion zone.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred bearish scenario
Entry: 4,340–4,350 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,395
Take Profit 1: 4,320
Take Profit 2: 4,305
Take Profit 3: 4,278–4,288
The cleaner plan is to wait for rejection around the projected Wave (4) resistance area. A break below 4,320, followed by loss of 4,305, would strengthen the continuation toward the Wave (5) target.
Alternative scenario:
If gold breaks above 4,350 and holds with strong bullish momentum, price could retest 4,380–4,395 before the broader bearish structure is reassessed.
◌ Invalidation
The bearish scenario would weaken if price gains sustained acceptance above 4,380, while a confirmed break above 4,395 would invalidate the preferred Wave (5) continuation setup.
⌁ Kelly’s view
Kelly’s main view remains bearish while gold stays below 4,380–4,395.
The current rebound looks more like a corrective Wave (4) than a confirmed trend reversal. If sellers defend 4,340–4,350, the next downside sequence may target 4,320, then 4,305, before the larger 4,278–4,288 Wave (5) zone comes into focus.
Do you think sellers will defend the Wave (4) zone, or will gold retest 4,390 first? Short 
BTCUSD Daily: Base Built, Now Testing the 83K Wallwww.tradingview.com
This is the Bitcoin / USD daily chart (Bitstamp, 19 Sep 2026). Price is currently around 81,469. After a roughly 55% fall from the Oct 2025 peak, Bitcoin swept the sell-side liquidity, built a base, and broke out. It has pulled back into a fair value gap (FVG) and bounced, and it is now pressing against the first major resistance. All levels below are my approximate readings from the chart, so small deviations are possible.
1. Big picture (Sep 2025 to now)
Oct 2025: Bitcoin peaked near 126,000, the all-time high on this chart. The buy-side liquidity line sits at this level, about 126,500.
Nov 2025: A sharp drop was followed by a lower high near 116,000 (POI 3), then a slide to a low near 80,500 in late Nov. The high-to-lower-high pattern marks the start of the downtrend.
Dec 2025 to Jan 2026: A bounce reached about 97,000 and was rejected. The analyst labels this area a "big whales liquidity inject", meaning large players sold into the rally.
Feb 2026: A heavy crash took price to about 58,500, wiping out most of the gains made since 2024.
Feb to Apr: Price ranged in the 62,000 to 70,000 area, then rallied through spring.
May 2026: The rally topped near 83,000 and was rejected. This is the second "liquidity inject" label, and it is the level now called POI 1.
Jun 2026: Price dropped again to about 57,000, slightly below the Feb low. That swept the sell-side liquidity resting under the earlier lows and marked the bottom of this cycle so far.
Jul to mid-Aug: Price moved sideways in a tight range (about 60,000 to 66,000) inside the sell-side liquidity zone. This looks like accumulation.
Late Aug: A strong impulsive candle took price from about 65,000 to the mid-70,000s in one move. This left the FVG, and the rally continued to a high near 83,000 in early Sep.
Mid-Sep: Price pulled back into the FVG, bottoming near 75,500, then bounced sharply to the current 81,469.
2. Key levels
Upside (POIs, points of interest):
POI 1, around 83,000: the May high and the Sep high, a double top so far. This is the immediate resistance and the key level right now.
POI 2, around 98,000: the Jan 2026 rejection zone.
Strong POI, around 107,500: an older support from Sep to Oct 2025 that broke in Nov and has become resistance. The analyst marks it as strong because it is a major supply zone.
POI 3, around 116,000: the Nov 2025 lower high.
Buy Side Liquidity, around 126,000 and above: the Oct 2025 all-time high.
Downside:
FVG zone (pink box), roughly 73,000 to 76,000: the imbalance from the Aug breakout, and the first strong support. It already produced a bounce in Sep.
Around 80,500 (the Nov 2025 low) is a minor level just below price. Old support often turns into resistance, so it is worth watching.
Sell Side Liquidity zone, roughly 58,000 to 63,000: the base of the whole structure, with the Feb and Jun lows.
3. Structure read
Trendline: The HTF Resistance Trendline runs from the Oct 2025 peak down through the lower highs. By my reading, price moved above it around spring and has stayed above since. The Jun low landed roughly where the extended line sits, so it looks like a retest that held.
Short term: Bullish. Price made a higher low in Sep (about 75,500, above the Jul lows in the low-60,000s) and is again pushing toward the highs. The FVG was respected.
Medium term: Not yet confirmed. The May and Sep highs both sit at about 83,000, so this is a potential double top until a daily close above it. Price is also still far below the 97,000 to 126,000 supply area, and the Jun low was slightly lower than the Feb low, so the bottom is a sweep rather than a clean higher low.
Bias: Cautiously bullish above 75,000, with the real confirmation being a daily close above 83,000.
4. Liquidity logic on the chart
The analyst's core idea is that price moves between liquidity pools. Sell-side liquidity below (58,000 to 63,000) was swept and price reacted upward, which suggests smart money accumulated there. Now price is reaching for buy-side liquidity above, first equal highs at 83,000, then the older supply zones, and eventually the 126,000 high. The "whales liquidity inject" labels mark places where large sellers previously absorbed demand, so 83,000 may see a similar reaction again.
5. Scenarios
Bullish scenario (the analyst's path):
Price closes above 83,000 on the daily and holds it as support.
The first target is 98,000 (POI 2), about 20% above the current price. The chart expects a small pullback around 93,000 after that.
Then 107,500 (Strong POI), followed by another shallow pullback near 105,000.
The final projected target is the buy-side liquidity at 126,000+. This is the chart's most ambitious leg and would take a lot of time and momentum.
Pullback scenario:
Price is rejected at 83,000 (double top) and falls back.
First support is the FVG (73,000 to 76,000). A hold there sets up another attempt higher.
A daily close below about 73,000 breaks the FVG and weakens the bullish idea. The next area is the range around 65,000, then the 58,000 to 63,000 sell-side zone. A break of the June low near 57,000 would invalidate the whole base-building structure.
6. What to watch
Daily close above or below 83,000.
Whether the 73,000 to 76,000 FVG keeps holding on dips.
Reaction near 80,500, the old Nov low.
Volume on the breakout, since a break without volume is more likely to fail.
7. Summary
Bitcoin has done what a base-and-breakout structure usually does: swept the lows, ranged, broke out with an impulsive leg, and retested the FVG. Momentum is currently bullish, with price at 81,469 only about 2% below POI 1. But 83,000 has already rejected price twice, and the larger downtrend has not been fully reversed until price reclaims the higher supply zones. A close above 83,000 would be the first real confirmation, and the FVG is the key support. Crypto is very volatile, and the 126,000 target is a long-term projection, not a base case. 
Long
XAUUSD Daily: Post-Range Breakout, Now at the Pullback Decisionwww.tradingview.com
This is the Gold Spot / USD daily chart (19 Sep 2026). Price is currently around 4,378. The core idea is that Gold fell for a long stretch, built a range, swept sell-side liquidity, broke the HTF trendline, and has now pulled back and bounced. It is approaching a decision point for the next move. All levels below are my approximate readings from the chart, so small deviations are possible.
1. Big picture (Nov 2025 to now)
Gold started rising in Nov 2025 from around 4,000 and peaked near 5,600 at the end of Jan 2026. This is marked as External Range Liquidity.
A sharp drop followed in early Feb, then a second high formed in March near 5,400, lower than the first. This is marked as Buy Side Liquidity.
By late March, price fell back to around 4,100. April brought a bounce, but it stalled near 4,900, a rejection inside the Internal Range Liquidity FVG (roughly 4,860 to 4,970). The highs kept stepping down: 5,600, 5,400, 4,900.
From June to early Aug, price moved sideways in a range (roughly 3,930 to 4,300), labeled "Price in Range" on the chart. In July, wicks below the range swept the sell-side liquidity, where the Order Block (OB) zone sits at roughly 3,860 to 4,010.
In Aug, price broke out of the range and closed above the HTF Resistance Trendline. This is the first major structural change. A high formed in late Aug near 4,680.
A pullback followed through mid-Sept, bottoming near 4,235, and price has now bounced back to 4,378.
2. Key levels
Upside (POIs):
POI 1, around 4,390 to 4,400: immediate resistance, where price is now.
POI 2, around 4,520: an older swing level and the second target.
POI 3, around 4,680 to 4,690: the Aug high and the main upside target. The green arrow points here.
Beyond that: the Internal Range FVG (4,860 to 4,970), then Buy Side Liquidity (5,400) and External Range Liquidity (5,600).
Downside:
DIV POI, around 4,235: the recent swing low and first support.
FVG zone (pink box), roughly 4,100 to 4,235: the imbalance left by the Aug breakout, which price may return to fill.
DIV POI 2, around 4,080: the last line of defense below the FVG.
Below that: the range low and Sell Side Liquidity with OB (3,860 to 4,010).
3. Structure read
Short term looks better. The July low was about 3,930 and the Sept pullback low is 4,235, so price has made a higher low. The trendline break is also a bullish signal.
Medium term calls for caution. The 4,680 high sits below April's 4,900, so on the bigger picture the lower-high structure has not been broken. Solid bullish confirmation would be a close above 4,690, and then above 4,900.
The trendline now sits below price and appears to run near the FVG zone. That makes 4,100 to 4,235 an important support area, since the FVG and the trendline overlap there.
4. The USD (DXY) factor
The small USD chart in the top-left shows a falling red trendline and a "FVG with support" zone below. The analyst's note says the USD made a sharp bullish reversal but has weakened over the past two days and may now target downside POIs. Gold and the USD usually move inversely, so if the USD keeps falling, Gold gets support to move up. If the USD strengthens again, Gold may struggle to hold above 4,400. This is only a correlation, not a guarantee.
5. Two possible scenarios
Bullish scenario:
Price holds above 4,235 and prints a daily close above 4,400 (POI 1).
Next targets are 4,520 (POI 2), then 4,690 (POI 3).
A close above 4,690 opens the path toward the 4,900 FVG, where major resistance is likely.
Pullback / bearish scenario (red arrow):
Price is rejected at POI 1 and starts falling again.
First stop is 4,235. If that breaks, price could drop into the FVG (4,100 to 4,235).
A reaction from the FVG could set up another move higher, which is the chart's green plan. A close below 4,080 weakens the bullish idea and puts the range low and sell-side liquidity (3,860 to 4,010) back in play.
6. Summary
The short-term bias is cautiously bullish, because the trendline is broken, a higher low has formed, and the USD is weakening. However, price is sitting at POI 1, the first area of resistance, and the larger structure has not fully flipped given the lower highs. The clearest confirmation would be a close above 4,690, and the most important support is 4,235 with the FVG zone below it.
This is educational chart analysis only, not trading or financial advice. Please set your own risk management and stop loss, and recheck the levels on a live chart before any trade. Long 
GOLD - A countertrend correction aimed at liquidity huntingICMARKETS:XAUUSD has been forming a countertrend correction toward the 4,400–4,430 liquidity zone since the session opened. The fundamental backdrop remains weak, and the market is still in a bearish trend
The dollar is stagnating after breaking through local resistance levels. The Fed’s hawkish stance and rising rates are supporting the Dollar Index, which is putting medium-term pressure on the metals market. However, the correction in oil prices is giving gold some room to recover as it tests key levels.
Gold is stabilizing, but further upside remains limited by the Fed’s hawkish outlook and geopolitical risks. The BOJ decision and developments in the Middle East will determine the short-term direction
Drivers:
Upside: further declines in oil prices and yields, de-escalation of the conflict, softer U.S. data, dovish BOJ.
Downside: escalation in the Middle East, higher oil prices, hawkish Fed stance, dollar strength
Resistance levels: 4,402, 4,435, 4,495
Support levels: 4,340, 4,253, 4,200
Gold is forming a countertrend correction amid dollar stagnation. A short squeeze of the 4,400–4,435 resistance zone — with the key focus on two triggers — could trigger a decline toward the key support levels. The formation of reversal patterns after the retest could provide a potential entry opportunity
Best regards,
R. Linda! Short 
GOLD - A countertrend correction ahead of the news ICMARKETS:XAUUSD is bouncing from support ahead of the news and forming a countertrend correction amid the dollar’s stagnation following a five-day rally. The FOMC meeting and comments from the regulator are ahead...
Technically, most of the hawkish risks have already been priced in, but gold will remain vulnerable if the Fed signals that it intends to keep rates elevated for an extended period. Geopolitical risks and high energy prices are providing support. Gold is caught between expectations of tighter monetary policy and safe-haven demand.
Technically, the market is moving toward a liquidity zone, which could be tested before another decline within the local trend
Drivers:
Downside: hawkish Fed, strong dollar, rising yields.
Upside: dovish Fed, weak dollar, geopolitical support
Resistance levels: 4,355, 4,402
Support levels: 4,250, 4,230, 4,200
Gold, having failed to reach the key levels at 4,230–4,200, is forming a countertrend correction ahead of the upcoming news — the interest rate decision. A short squeeze of the 4,355–4,400 resistance zone could trigger a decline toward the key areas of interest
Best regards,
R. Linda! Short 
Long 
BTCUSDT: Price Downward, Bears in ControlBTCUSDT is trading around 77,300 USDT and remains firmly within a descending channel.
Despite multiple attempts to rebound, the price has failed to break the structure of lower highs and continues to fluctuate below the EMA89 (near 77,830), indicating that buying pressure is insufficient to reverse the short-term trend.
The 77,500–78,000 range is the area I am watching most closely. It serves as a "Sell Zone" and represents a confluence of the EMA and the upper boundary of the descending channel. If BTC rallies to this zone but faces rejection, there is a high probability of a pullback to 76,500, followed by an extension toward the primary target near 75,500 USDT.
Early-week macroeconomic conditions also lean toward a "risk-off" sentiment. Brent crude has risen nearly 3% due to supply concerns in the Middle East, while the market is pricing in an approximately 86% probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike this week. US Treasury yields remain elevated, exerting further pressure on crypto and risk assets.
The bearish scenario would be invalidated if BTC breaks out of the channel and holds firmly above the 78,300–78,500 level. Short 
GOLD - A bounce off support before falling to 4,200 ICMARKETS:XAUUSD remains under pressure from the Fed’s hawkish stance and a strengthening dollar. In the medium term, the market may maintain its bearish trend; however, this week, all attention is focused on the Fed’s rate decision and the regulator’s comments
The dollar is forming a countertrend correction but remains locally bearish. The dollar’s rise is putting additional pressure on the metals market. Gold is maintaining its bearish market structure amid the Fed’s hawkish stance, while the market is also pricing in a high probability of a rate hike. Yields at their highest levels since 2023 are reducing the attractiveness of non-yielding gold. Trump’s rhetoric, including his calls for lower rates while acknowledging uncertainty, as well as support for Warsh’s independence, have so far failed to change the overall hawkish stance.
Technically, gold could remain within the current range ahead of the news. A false breakdown of support could trigger a correction toward the liquidity zones before the downtrend resumes.
Resistance levels: 4,345, 4,389, 4,435
Support levels: 4,287, 4,230, 4,200
The market is aiming to test the 2,292–2,287 liquidity pool. As an initial reaction to the retest, the market could trigger a rebound toward the 4,345–4,389 areas of interest and liquidity, followed by another move lower toward 4,200
Best regards,
R. Linda! Short 
Long 
GOLD - A countertrend correction to 4,400 ahead of the newsICMARKETS:XAUUSD remains under pressure from a strengthening dollar and a weak fundamental backdrop. The market is making new intermediate lows within the 4,290–4,500 trading range. Key news is ahead…
The dollar is bouncing from support and returning to its bullish momentum, putting further pressure on the market. Gold is trading near its weekly lows, around $4,310, on Friday following a sharp decline triggered by hotter-than-expected PPI data and rising oil prices.
According to TD Securities, a hawkish Fed may only delay the next move higher in gold rather than trigger a deeper decline, as support remains in place from dollar debasement, central bank purchases, and ETF inflows. The market is now waiting for the key U.S. CPI report.
Drivers:
Upside: soft CPI, dollar weakness, falling yields, central bank purchases, ETF inflows.
Downside: hot CPI, hawkish Fed rhetoric, dollar strength, rising yields
Resistance levels: 4,389, 4,400, 4,435
Support levels: 4,345, 4,300, 4,287
Gold is making new lows but has yet to reach the key target. A countertrend correction is forming ahead of the upcoming news. A short squeeze around the 4,390–4,400 zone could trigger another decline toward the 4,285 liquidity zone
Best regards,
R. Linda! Short 
Long 
GOLD - A Hunt for Liquidity Ahead of Further DeclinesICMARKETS:XAUUSD has been forming a countertrend correction since the session opened. The fundamental backdrop remains unstable, and this correction could end with another move lower
Gold remains exposed to two-sided risks ahead of the release of U.S. CPI data. The sell-the-bounce strategy remains in place, especially against the backdrop of higher-than-expected inflation in China. TD Securities expects core inflation to remain under control in August but warns of upside risks
Drivers:
Upside: weak U.S. CPI data, dollar weakness, de-escalation of the conflict.
Downside: hot CPI data, dollar strength, escalation of the conflict, hawkish Fed rhetoric
Resistance levels: 4,410, 4,435, 4,461
Support levels: 4,365, 4,287
A weaker dollar, driven by yen strength, is supporting gold. At the same time, however, gold remains under pressure from the Fed’s hawkish stance and geopolitical risks.
Technically, I expect a short squeeze around the 4,430–4,435 liquidity zone, followed by a decline toward range support at 4,365–4,287
Best regards,
R. Linda! Short 
GOLD - The market is under pressure from a bearish trend ICMARKETS:XAUUSD remains in a local bearish trend, while consolidation below the 4,435 liquidity zone is becoming a technical catalyst for further downside
The dollar is stagnating, but at the same time, it is weakening due to interventions by the Bank of Japan. Gold looks weak against this backdrop, especially given the Fed’s medium-term hawkish stance. Geopolitical risks and inflation expectations that could limit further upside remain in place. The key event of the week will be the U.S. inflation data on Friday, which will determine the next direction.
Drivers:
Upside for gold: further dollar weakness, a stronger yen, weak U.S. CPI data.
Downside for gold: dollar strength, hawkish Fed rhetoric, rising geopolitical tensions (supporting oil and the dollar), strong CPI data
Resistance levels: 4,435, 4,461, 4,490
Support levels: 4,365, 4,320, 4,290
Gold remains under pressure from a weak fundamental backdrop and the local bearish trend. A short squeeze around the liquidity zone is triggering further downside. I do not rule out a retest of local resistance before another decline toward 4,365–4,290
Best regards, R. Linda! Short 
Nifty daily: below every average, inside a falling channelThis is the same structure as the lower timeframes, but the daily adds the averages, and the averages tell you why nothing bullish has stuck all year.
The long term average rolled over in March and has been declining ever since. Price has been under it for six straight months. Not one rally has closed above it. The August push at 24,650 got right to it, touched it, and turned. That is the third rejection off the triangle line and the first touch of the long term average in months, both at the same spot. That is where the current leg down started.
The triangle itself is the same two lines. February high 26,500 on top, April low 22,210 underneath, converging through August. Price walked out of the bottom of it in the last week of the month and has not been back.
What matters now on the daily is the average stack. Short term average is below the medium term. Medium term is below the long term. All three are pointing down. Price is below all three. That is a full bearish alignment, the first clean one since the April low, and it happened only after the channel dragged price through the rising trendline.
Close is 23,753, down 0.60 percent, sitting on the lower rail of the descending channel with the short and medium averages stacked overhead near 24,100 to 24,200. Every one of those is now resistance, and so is the broken triangle line, which sits in the same area. That is a lot of supply in one zone.
Levels, simply. Downside, June low 23,150, then 22,900, then the April low at 22,210. Upside, first job is a daily close back above 24,200 to clear the short and medium averages and get inside the triangle again. Until that happens the trend on the daily is down and every bounce is a bounce inside a downtrend.
What would change my mind. A close above 24,200 that holds, then a reclaim of the long term average near 24,650. Until both, I treat rallies as sells into resistance and let the structure work.
Not a recommendation, just sharing what I am watching. 
Long
GOLD - Correction and retest of the 4460 resistance levelICMARKETS:XAUUSD continues its rebound after the false breakdown of the 4,300 support level. The fundamental backdrop remains mixed, but selling pressure is still present
The dollar is stagnating, potentially due to intervention from the Bank of Japan. The correction in the Dollar Index is giving gold room to recover. The key event is Friday’s NFP report. A weak report could support a further recovery in gold, while a strong report could bring selling pressure back. The 4,460 level remains the nearest resistance, with 4,300 acting as support.
Drivers:
Upside: weak NFP data on Friday, further dollar weakness, lower yields, technical rebound.
Downside: strong NFP data, hawkish Fed rhetoric, stronger dollar, renewed rise in oil prices
Resistance levels: 4,466, 4,480
Support levels: 4,300
The long squeeze of the 4,300 support zone has triggered a rebound, which has developed into a stronger move amid the dollar correction.
Ahead lies the 4,466–4,480 resistance zone. A short squeeze in this area could trigger a downside pullback, potentially pushing gold back into the range ahead of the NFP release.
The retest of this resistance zone and the market’s reaction to it will help determine the medium-term direction
Best regards,
R. Linda. Short 
JPN225: 3% yields, a descending triangle,Here Is the Trade!The video has a detailed analysis of the Japan 225 and the trade setup that I have created as of 3 September 2026, the day when Japan's 10 year bond yield topped 3% for the first time since 1996 as US-Iran airstrikes increase oil prices, global inflation expectations rise, yen strengthens amid BOJ rate hike check speculation and the index falls 2.85% to four-week lows at 64,325. Nikkei index currently trades 12% down from its June peak of 73,007. Descending triangle has been developing quietly since August highs, with flat support at 63,500 and a series of lower highs. The MACD histogram is decreasing from deeply negative levels – the exact same exhaustion signal that the Hang Seng produced on the chart in July right before providing its strongest week since March 2025. I go through the details of the triangle, the trading setup, three possible target levels and finally the level which signals the triangle breakdown;62,000. This video should be interesting both to those who trade indices and want to learn about the relationship between bond yields and chart patterns. 
Long
Short
