NASDAQ | Daily & 4H Elliott Wave Analysis: Structure Over BiasNASDAQ | Daily & 4H Elliott Wave Analysis: Structure Over Bias 📊
In this week's NASDAQ analysis, I'm maintaining two structurally valid Elliott Wave scenarios. The purpose isn't to predict what the market should do, but to identify where it may currently reside within the broader wave sequence.
The debate here isn't necessarily about direction. It's about position.
Scenario 1 — Aggressive Thesis: The Extended Wave III Expansion
The aggressive interpretation continues to favor a nested 1-2 wave structure across both the daily and 4-hour timeframes. Under this scenario, the market remains in a powerful impulsive sequence, suggesting that the larger Wave III has entered its acceleration phase.
Several technical observations support this view:
• Multiple nested impulse formations remain intact.
• The corrective channel on the 4H chart has been broken to the upside.
• Recent pullbacks continue to fit within typical Wave 2 retracement parameters (23.6%–50.0% Fibonacci retracement).
• Current price action suggests that corrections may be functioning as continuation structures rather than reversal patterns.
If this interpretation remains valid, the market may still be in the early-to-middle stages of an extended Wave III, where momentum expansion becomes the dominant characteristic of the trend.
Scenario 2 — Conservative Thesis: Wave III Structural Maturity
The conservative interpretation assumes that the current advance may represent the mature stages of a larger Wave III sequence.
This scenario remains firmly grounded in classical Elliott Wave validation principles:
• Wave III remains longer than Wave I, preserving the core impulsive rule set.
• Fibonacci extension clusters within the 61.8%–78.6% expansion zone continue to be monitored carefully.
• The possibility of a larger corrective phase, whether sideways or impulsive in nature, remains technically valid.
• Internal structures are being evaluated for signs of exhaustion rather than continuation.
Under this interpretation, the market may require a meaningful corrective sequence before beginning its next major advance.
The 4-Hour Perspective: A Microscope, Not a Contradiction
The 4-hour chart does not invalidate either scenario.
Instead, it provides a closer look at the internal battle taking place between acceleration and structural maturity. The lower timeframe serves as a microscope, helping us determine whether the market is:
accelerating into the core of an extended Wave III,or completing the final subdivisions of a mature Wave III before correction.
Final Thoughts
One of the greatest misconceptions in market analysis is assuming that disagreement always means opposing direction.
In Elliott Wave analysis, disagreement often exists not in direction, but in position within the structure.
Both scenarios remain structurally bullish.
The only question the market has yet to answer is:
Are we witnessing the beginning of acceleration, or the completion of expansion?
As always, the objective is not to predict the market's future, but to interpret the structure it reveals.
Markets don't guess. Markets structure.
– Patterns whisper. I listen. – Mr. Nobody 🎧📊 
Long
TKNO | Alpha Teknova, Inc. | Day Chart, June Q2 26'MARKET-BEATING SCORE = 5/10
TKNO | Alpha Teknova, Inc.
"engages in the manufacture of cell culture media and supplements. It provides reagents that enable the discovery, development, and production of biopharmaceutical products such as drug therapies, novel vaccines, and molecular diagnostics. Its product offerings include pre-poured media plates for cell growth and cloning, liquid cell culture media and supplements for cellular expansion, and molecular biology reagents for sample manipulation, resuspension, and purification"
Located in: Hollister, CA.
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MARKET-BEATING SCORE
TKNO PEGY -0.52 — undervalued vs. growth rate. Strong candidate to beat the market.
TKNO EPS growth 19.65% — solid, in line with market leaders.
TKNO revenue growing 9.30% YoY — steady but below high-growth threshold (15%+).
TKNO gross margin 34.01% — decent margin, competitive business model.
TKNO FCF $-9.07M negative — cash burn is a risk factor against market-beating returns.
TKNO D/E ratio 0.43 — conservative leverage, balance sheet resilience favors outperformance.
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Multiple Time-Frame Analysis; Color Code | Strength favors the higher timeframe.
Yearly timeframe = black
Monthly timeframe = pink
weekly = grey
daily = red
4hr = orange
1hr = yellow
15min = blue
5min = green if they are shown. (Level visibility on intervals is set to timeframe the level was found on and below to keep chart view organized.)
** Candle Science explained **
A Range = two or more consecutive color candles.
There are two types of ranges - accumulation and distribution.
DISTRIBUTION RANGES DEFINED: BackSide (BS) Candle - First distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level.
FrontSide (FS) Candle - Last distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = reversal, create a trend in the opposite direction. Distribution candles are used as support.
ACCUMULATION RANGES DEFINED:
Inverse BS (Inv.BS) - First Accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation. = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level.
Inverse FS (Inv.FS) - Last accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation = reversal, create a trend in the opposite direction. Accumulation candles are used as resistance.
Horizontal Ray tool on BS & FS levels are default support levels when dashed lines, tested when dotted lines and resistance when solid lines.
Horizontal Ray tool on Inverse BS & Inverse FS levels default as resistance and shown with a dashed line, tested when 1x dotted line, and support when solid line.
The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines.
AOUT | June Q2 26' prior to earnings | Day ChartMARKET-BEATING SCORE = 2/10
AOUT revenue declining 0.61% YoY — top-line contraction is a headwind.
AOUT gross margin 43.06% — decent margin, competitive business model.
AOUT FCF $0.11M positive — real cash generation, the #1 long-run predictor of market outperformance.
AOUT D/E ratio 0.20 — conservative leverage, balance sheet resilience favors outperformance.
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Multiple Time-Frame Analysis; Color Code | Strength favors the higher timeframe.
Yearly timeframe = black
Monthly timeframe = pink
weekly = grey
daily = red
4hr = orange
1hr = yellow
15min = blue
5min = green if they are shown. (Level visibility on intervals is set to timeframe the level was found on and below to keep chart view organized.)
** Candle Science explained **
A Range = two or more consecutive color candles.
There are two types of ranges - accumulation and distribution.
DISTRIBUTION RANGES DEFINED: BackSide (BS) Candle - First distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level.
FrontSide (FS) Candle - Last distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = reversal, create a trend in the opposite direction. Distribution candles are used as support.
ACCUMULATION RANGES DEFINED:
Inverse BS (Inv.BS) - First Accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation. = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level.
Inverse FS (Inv.FS) - Last accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation = reversal, create a trend in the opposite direction. Accumulation candles are used as resistance.
Horizontal Ray tool on BS & FS levels are default support levels when dashed lines, tested when dotted lines and resistance when solid lines.
Horizontal Ray tool on Inverse BS & Inverse FS levels default as resistance and shown with a dashed line, tested when 1x dotted line, and support when solid line.
The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines. Long 
Long 
Long
Long
PAYS | July Q3 26' | Day ChartPaysign, Inc.
PAYS EPS growth 34.00% — above-market growth rate, typically outperforms the broad index.
PAYS revenue growing 43.40% YoY — strong top-line supports market-beating returns.
PAYS gross margin 60.40% — strong moat, characteristic of long-run market beaters.
PAYS FCF $75.87M positive — real cash generation, the #1 long-run predictor of market outperformance.
PAYS D/E ratio 0.11 — conservative leverage, balance sheet resilience favors outperformance.
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Multiple Time-Frame Analysis; Color Code | Strength favors the higher timeframe.
Yearly timeframe = black
Monthly timeframe = pink
weekly = grey
daily = red
4hr = orange
1hr = yellow
15min = blue
5min = green if they are shown. (Level visibility on intervals is set to timeframe the level was found on and below to keep chart view organized.)
** Candle Science explained **
A Range = two or more consecutive color candles.
There are two types of ranges - accumulation and distribution.
DISTRIBUTION RANGES DEFINED: BackSide (BS) Candle - First distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level.
FrontSide (FS) Candle - Last distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = reversal, create a trend in the opposite direction. Distribution candles are used as support.
ACCUMULATION RANGES DEFINED:
Inverse BS (Inv.BS) - First Accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation. = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level.
Inverse FS (Inv.FS) - Last accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation = reversal, create a trend in the opposite direction. Accumulation candles are used as resistance.
Horizontal Ray tool on BS & FS levels are default support levels when dashed lines, tested when dotted lines and resistance when solid lines.
Horizontal Ray tool on Inverse BS & Inverse FS levels default as resistance and shown with a dashed line, tested when 1x dotted line, and support when solid line.
The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines.
GGZ | July Q3 26' | Day ChartGabelli Global Small and Mid Cap Value Trust
GGZ EPS growth 193.00% — above-market growth rate, typically outperforms the broad index.
GGZ revenue growing 1.10% YoY — steady but below high-growth threshold (15%+).
GGZ gross margin 100.00% — strong moat, characteristic of long-run market beaters.
GGZ FCF $254.51M positive — real cash generation, the #1 long-run predictor of market outperformance.
GGZ D/E ratio 1.39 — moderate leverage, manageable but worth monitoring.
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Multiple Time-Frame Analysis; Color Code | Strength favors the higher timeframe.
Yearly timeframe = black
Monthly timeframe = pink
weekly = grey
daily = red
4hr = orange
1hr = yellow
15min = blue
5min = green if they are shown. (Level visibility on intervals is set to timeframe the level was found on and below to keep chart view organized.)
** Candle Science explained **
A Range = two or more consecutive color candles.
There are two types of ranges - accumulation and distribution.
DISTRIBUTION RANGES DEFINED: BackSide (BS) Candle - First distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level.
FrontSide (FS) Candle - Last distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = reversal, create a trend in the opposite direction. Distribution candles are used as support.
ACCUMULATION RANGES DEFINED:
Inverse BS (Inv.BS) - First Accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation. = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level.
Inverse FS (Inv.FS) - Last accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation = reversal, create a trend in the opposite direction. Accumulation candles are used as resistance.
Horizontal Ray tool on BS & FS levels are default support levels when dashed lines, tested when dotted lines and resistance when solid lines.
Horizontal Ray tool on Inverse BS & Inverse FS levels default as resistance and shown with a dashed line, tested when 1x dotted line, and support when solid line.
The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines. LTC | July Q3 26' | Day ChartLTC Properties, Inc.
LTC EPS growth 193.00% — above-market growth rate, typically outperforms the broad index.
LTC revenue growing 1.10% YoY — steady but below high-growth threshold (15%+).
LTC gross margin 100.00% — strong moat, characteristic of long-run market beaters.
LTC FCF $254.51M positive — real cash generation, the #1 long-run predictor of market outperformance.
LTC D/E ratio 1.39 — moderate leverage, manageable but worth monitoring.
----------------------------------
Multiple Time-Frame Analysis; Color Code | Strength favors the higher timeframe.
Yearly timeframe = black
Monthly timeframe = pink
weekly = grey
daily = red
4hr = orange
1hr = yellow
15min = blue
5min = green if they are shown. (Level visibility on intervals is set to timeframe the level was found on and below to keep chart view organized.)
** Candle Science explained **
A Range = two or more consecutive color candles.
There are two types of ranges - accumulation and distribution.
DISTRIBUTION RANGES DEFINED: BackSide (BS) Candle - First distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level.
FrontSide (FS) Candle - Last distribution candle in a distribution range. Expectation = reversal, create a trend in the opposite direction. Distribution candles are used as support.
ACCUMULATION RANGES DEFINED:
Inverse BS (Inv.BS) - First Accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation. = strong reaction to price. long wicks reaching to or away from level.
Inverse FS (Inv.FS) - Last accumulation candle in an accumulation range. Expectation = reversal, create a trend in the opposite direction. Accumulation candles are used as resistance.
Horizontal Ray tool on BS & FS levels are default support levels when dashed lines, tested when dotted lines and resistance when solid lines.
Horizontal Ray tool on Inverse BS & Inverse FS levels default as resistance and shown with a dashed line, tested when 1x dotted line, and support when solid line.
The inverse is true for the Inv. BS Inv. FS levels, they are resistance as dashed lines, tested as dotted and support as solid lines. XAU/USD 26 June 2026 Intraday Analysis H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as yesterday's analysis dated 25 June 2026.
Price has printed according to my analysis dated 15 June 2026 with price subsequently printing a bearish iBOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal high and fractal low. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted horizontal line.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase initiation.
Note:
Gold remains volatile as tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran keep safe‑haven demand elevated.
Markets are reacting quickly to every headline, while uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path and shifting U.S. policy under President Trump, especially tariffs continues to fuel choppy price action.
For newer traders, the key is simple, stay flexible and manage risk carefully, as fast spikes and sudden reversals are a normal part of the current XAU/USD environment.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Bias and analysis to remain the same as yesterday's analysis dated 25 June 2026.
As mentioned in my analysis dated 15 June 2026 where I was not convinced of the insignificant nature of the bullish iBOS. I also mentioned in alternative scenario of my analysis that I would not be surprised to see price print a bearish iBOS by targeting strong internal low, priced at 4,023.870.
This is how priced printed, subsequently printing a bearish iBOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal high and fractal low. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted horizontal line.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bullish CHoCH to indicate bullish pullback phase, thereafter, price to trade up to either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low, currently priced at 3,959.080.
Note:
Gold remains highly reactive on M15 as geopolitical risk continues to drive quick, headline‑led moves.
The tension between the US, Israel, and Iran is keeping safe‑haven demand elevated, with markets still sensitive to any sign of escalation.
At the same time, shifting US tariff policy under President Trump is adding extra uncertainty, fuelling sharp intraday swings and increasing the likelihood of sudden sentiment flips. Liquidity pockets and whipsaws remain common, making disciplined risk management essential.
Gold’s geopolitical premium is still firmly in place, and until tensions ease, short‑term volatility is likely to stay front‑loaded.
M15 Chart: BTCUSD: Dual Selling Zones in Bearish Structure – 61,100 & 61,80Market Outlook:
Bitcoin is firmly in a bearish market structure, consistently forming lower highs and lower lows while repeating the same rejection pattern on higher timeframes. Sellers remain in full control.
Two Best Selling Confluences Right Now: Bearish Order Block (15M) — Around 61,100
Strong institutional supply area where price previously reversed sharply.
Major Supply Zone (15M) — Around 61,800
High-volume resistance zone acting as a ceiling.
Why This Setup is Strong: Overall bearish structure is still intact with no valid bullish reversal yet.
Market is repeating its behavior — rejecting rallies and respecting supply areas.
Clear Break of Structure (BOS) lower and Sell Side Liquidity (SSL) waiting below.
Multiple confluences aligning for continuation.
Trade Plan: Sell Zone 1: 61,100 (Bearish OB)
Sell Zone 2: 61,800 (Supply Zone)
Targets: TP1: 60,800
TP2: 60,000
TP3: 59,300 – 58,800
Stop Loss: Above 61,900 (for both zones)
This is a textbook bearish continuation setup with excellent risk-reward for sellers.
This is not financial advice. Trading involves high risk. Always manage your risk and do your own analysis.
Short
Long
MicroStrategy - The red channel of doom returns - November 2025Ah, MicroStrategy…. the stock that’s half software company, half Bitcoin cult. Every time you think it’s about to behave like a normal tech firm, Michael Saylor pops up with a grin, another billion dollars of debt, and the conviction of a man who’s never heard the words “margin call.”
And here we are, November 2025, staring at the Red Channel Crossover. Sounds ominous doesn’t it? Like something NASA would warn about before the Sun goes super nova.
Déjà Vu: February 2022 Says Hello
Look left.
The last time price action crossed into the red channel was February 2022. Market structure broke. Price dumped. Holders prayed. And then just when everyone thought it was over, sneaky sellers rotated the gravity dial to 2G.
Now we’re back at it. November 2025, same crossover, same setup, same “this time is different” nonsense. Every influencer on X is already typing “Buy the dip 🚀”, as if adding a rocket emoji somehow fixes negative momentum.
The technicals
The green channel represents calm waters, an uptrend, happy times, and Saylor buying jets with the profits. The red channel is the opposite. It’s like when the hangover kicks in and you realise that was not sugar free Red Bull. Each time MSTR entered this red zone, it meant one thing:
Broken market structure,
50–70% correction,
Mass denial phase.
Right now, the chart’s showing that same red crossover again, after breaking below structural support around the $240 area. If you’re still shouting “to the moon” at this point… well that rocket exploded months ago.
RSI & sentiment
RSI is rolling over faster than a drunk at a wedding. Momentum’s drained and what’s left are bag holders explaining to their spouses that “it’s a long-term store of value.” It’s not. It’s a tech stock with a crypto addiction.
So what happens next?
If history’s anything to go by, and it usually is, price action is heading for the same fate it suffered post February 2022:
First, a short-lived bounce to sucker in the hopeful.
Then, the slow, grinding descent into despair.
A retrace toward the $80–$100 region would fit perfectly with prior cycle behaviour. And if Bitcoin confirms its own Gaussian bear trend, well… let’s just say Michael Saylor’s going to need more than “diamond hands”, he’ll need a therapist.
Before that can happen expect price action to test the $300 area to confirm broken market structure. Today price action is considerably oversold, this idea only becomes validated after a resistance confirmation on past support . Wrote that in bold for those of you who struggle to get past the headline. I blame Tik-Tok
Conclusions
Every cycle it’s the same story:
1. MSTR breaks structure.
2. The red channel appears.
3. Everyone panics.
4. Then comes the silence.
The only variable is how many motivational tweets Saylor can post before margin calls start rolling in. This setup isn’t new, isn’t rare, and isn’t bullish, it’s just math doing its job while people pretend it’s spiritual warfare. So yes, the red channel crossover is back. Same movie. Different year. Still ends badly for the extras.
Ww
Disclaimer
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This isn’t financial advice, obviously. If you need a stranger on the internet to tell you not to buy a company using borrowed money to gamble on Bitcoin, you deserve the portfolio you get.
If it pumps, you’ll take credit.
If it dumps, you’ll blame the FED.
Either way, I’ll be here limiting my desire to say "I told you so".
Long
Long 
