TP1 hit on the Nebius short from 5 days ago.
NBIS - Daily Chart
I know most people thought I was crazy when I posted a short on the strongest bull of the spring, literally a few days before they officially joined the Nasdaq100. It was supposed to pump. Funds had to buy. Only up. Bullish structure. New ATHs. Etc.
The thing is, the weekly chart was extremely overbought, there were three consecutive bearish divergences on both OBV and RSI, and several other factors were pointing toward the beginning of a distribution phase. Insiders were also very interested in exiting, although they started way too early back in the spring.
Institutions have also been aggressively shortingNBIS, but they were too early as well. They've been shorting the entire rally from $100 and up. Either liquidated already or sitting on horrible positions. Shorting Elliott Wave 1 and Wave 3 is pure comedy.
The lower panel shows another attack from the bears, a somewhat timid one because they are probably traumatized by now, but in my opinion this attempt is finally happening at a smart location, after what looks like an obvious extended Elliott Wave 5. Extended specifically on June 11th, when it was officially announced that Nebius would join the Nasdaq100 on June 22nd, which was yesterday.
So the entire move from around $200 upward was essentially a news-driven extension. And who buys news? The crowd. Retail. Smart money accumulated much earlier, while news-driven hype is traditionally used for distribution. Always has been, always will be.
The short is in a pretty good spot. In fact, $260+ would be my first profit-taking zone, the conservative target. That is already a pullback to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement ($261), which would simply be a shallow correction of the Wave 5 extension. But if my thesis continues to play out, a real correction could easily reach the $200 support zone, where the daily 50 MA is currently sitting as well. Strong support confluence plus the psychological $200 round number.
The psychological $300 resistance level is also working perfectly for the bears. The rejection happened right there. I added slightly to the short position at that level, so somehow I managed to get several entries very close to the top, shown at the bottom of the chart.
The stop loss is essentially based around $300 as well, a few percent above it. A partial stop loss around entry also makes sense, or even a 50/50 stop-loss approach.
A strong DXY is providing significant support for short positions on overextended assets. From my perspective, this is an ideal smart money distribution zone in almost every way. I think there is a real chance of panic and a move below $200 on this chart.
At that point, it may become interesting for the portfolio again, after a full correction and under a more favorable monetary regime than the one currently shaping up for Q3.
Not financial advice.
💙👽
NBIS - Daily ChartI know most people thought I was crazy when I posted a short on the strongest bull of the spring, literally a few days before they officially joined the Nasdaq100. It was supposed to pump. Funds had to buy. Only up. Bullish structure. New ATHs. Etc.
The thing is, the weekly chart was extremely overbought, there were three consecutive bearish divergences on both OBV and RSI, and several other factors were pointing toward the beginning of a distribution phase. Insiders were also very interested in exiting, although they started way too early back in the spring.
Institutions have also been aggressively shorting
NBIS, but they were too early as well. They've been shorting the entire rally from $100 and up. Either liquidated already or sitting on horrible positions. Shorting Elliott Wave 1 and Wave 3 is pure comedy.The lower panel shows another attack from the bears, a somewhat timid one because they are probably traumatized by now, but in my opinion this attempt is finally happening at a smart location, after what looks like an obvious extended Elliott Wave 5. Extended specifically on June 11th, when it was officially announced that Nebius would join the Nasdaq100 on June 22nd, which was yesterday.
So the entire move from around $200 upward was essentially a news-driven extension. And who buys news? The crowd. Retail. Smart money accumulated much earlier, while news-driven hype is traditionally used for distribution. Always has been, always will be.
The short is in a pretty good spot. In fact, $260+ would be my first profit-taking zone, the conservative target. That is already a pullback to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement ($261), which would simply be a shallow correction of the Wave 5 extension. But if my thesis continues to play out, a real correction could easily reach the $200 support zone, where the daily 50 MA is currently sitting as well. Strong support confluence plus the psychological $200 round number.
The psychological $300 resistance level is also working perfectly for the bears. The rejection happened right there. I added slightly to the short position at that level, so somehow I managed to get several entries very close to the top, shown at the bottom of the chart.
The stop loss is essentially based around $300 as well, a few percent above it. A partial stop loss around entry also makes sense, or even a 50/50 stop-loss approach.
A strong DXY is providing significant support for short positions on overextended assets. From my perspective, this is an ideal smart money distribution zone in almost every way. I think there is a real chance of panic and a move below $200 on this chart.
At that point, it may become interesting for the portfolio again, after a full correction and under a more favorable monetary regime than the one currently shaping up for Q3.
Not financial advice.
💙👽
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi ini tidak dimaksudkan, dan bukan merupakan, saran atau rekomendasi keuangan, investasi, trading, atau jenis lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Ketentuan Penggunaan.