Complacency is at extreme levels. Expect a sharp selloff. The put-call ratio is a measure of sentiment in the market and it's signaling extreme complacency. This is a sign to be bearish. These extreme readings have typically led to sizable corrections so I expect the same this time as well. I'm assuming at least a 10-15% selloff, most likely to the march lows.
Bearish Patterns
EURUSD Resistance at1.16000 as Hot CPI Boosts the US Dollar!Hey Traders,
In today's trading session, we are monitoring EURUSD for a potential selling opportunity around the 1.16000 zone. EURUSD is trading within a broader downtrend and is currently in a corrective phase, with price approaching the 1.16000 resistance area, a key support-turned-resistance level that could act as a barrier to further upside.
From a fundamental perspective, today's U.S. CPI data came in strong enough to reinforce the higher-for-longer interest rate narrative, supporting Treasury yields and strengthening the U.S. Dollar. As markets continue to scale back expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts, the dollar remains well supported across the board.
This creates a challenging environment for EURUSD, particularly as the pair rallies into a major technical resistance zone. With the Fed maintaining a relatively hawkish stance compared to other major central banks, any rejection from the 1.16000 area could attract renewed selling interest.
As long as price remains below the 1.16000 resistance zone, the bearish structure remains intact, and we anticipate continuation toward lower support levels.
Trade safe,Joe.
SPY - A Swing Low Was Just SweptSPY Has Given Back Most of the April Rally in Two Weeks. A Swing Low Was Just Swept.
Whether that sweep holds or fails is this morning's question.
Structural Assessment
SOM is reading Impulse Cont. Bear on SPY 1H.
15 primary FVGs alive, 12 touched. The obligation pool
built during the April-May rally is being systematically
worked. 12 touched against 15 primary means 80 percent
of current obligations have been engaged. The market is
not ignoring structure on the way down.
ACE is GREEN with Q2 neutral. CQI 58.5. Last Ann was
Bull CQI 71.22, 156 bars ago. Direction neutral against
a bull announcement from 156 bars back. The conviction
that was present at the high has fully decayed.
IMP is scoring 1/5. NONE mode. WAIT.
SwLo Swept: YES. A swing low was taken out.
RCZ at 26th pct, ATR at 48th. Neither elevated.
Vol Elev at 2nd percentile -- volume has not confirmed
the sweep. A swing low sweep without volume is a
structural note, not a signal.
Anti-signal: clear. The sweep itself is not flagged
as a liquidity grab by the stack -- it cleared cleanly.
Tactical Cheat Sheet
Resistance: 732-733 -- nearest overhead level
Key resistance: 737.57-738.47 -- prior FVG cluster base
Hard resistance: 741-742 -- dense FVG overhead
Current price: 730.63
Support: 728.00 -- intraday structural level
Key support: 721.23 -- session Low, thesis line
Extended support: 703.07 -- daily obligation cluster
SwLo Swept context:
The swing low sweep with Vol Elev at 2nd percentile
is not a confirmed breakdown. It is a probe. Price
tested below the prior low without volume conviction.
Two outcomes follow from here:
Reclaim path (sweep as liquidity grab):
Price reclaims 732 at open with Vol Elev entering
IMP scores 1+ with PART mode loading
The sweep was a stop run, not a breakdown
Target: 737-742 FVG cluster fill
Continuation path (sweep as breakdown):
Price fails to reclaim 732 on first attempt
Vol Elev enters and drives price through 728
IMP loads EXT mode with ATR expanding
Target: 721.23 test
What the Stack Is Watching
The swing low sweep is the event. Volume is the
verdict. If volume does not enter at the open to
confirm direction, this is noise in a bear structure,
not a signal in either direction.
RCZ at 26th pct is the watch variable. If it starts
climbing toward 60th in the first hour, the
participation sub-system is activating. That is when
the sweep resolves into a tradeable setup.
---
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice.
NVDA - The Overhead Pool Is Still In Play.NVDA Has Been Grinding Through Structure All Week. The Overhead Pool Is Still In Play.
Price is not lost. It is being worked.
Structural Assessment
SOM is reading Impulse Cont. Bear on NVDA 1H.
16 primary FVGs alive, 21 touched. The touched count
exceeding the current pool size tells you something
specific: price has been actively engaging and resolving
prior obligations. This is not a market drifting lower.
It is a market working through structure methodically.
ACE is YELLOW with Q2 neutral. CQI 57.5. The last
announced bar was Bear CQI 45.64, 82 bars ago. Direction
is neutral against a recent bear announcement. No state
reading -- the intraday conviction has not committed.
IMP is scoring 0/5. NONE mode. WAIT.
RCZ at 16th percentile, ATR at 59th. Range is compressed
but ATR is mid-range. The coil is partial -- volatility
memory is present but the range trigger has not built yet.
Vol Elev at 4th percentile. Volume is absent.
The stack is in observation mode on NVDA this morning.
No signal. No anti-signal. No directional commitment.
Just price sitting beneath a significant FVG cluster
with no volume to resolve it yet.
Tactical Cheat Sheet
Resistance: 204.65 -- first FVG level above
Key resistance: 205.75-208.79 -- dense FVG cluster
Hard resistance: 209.34-210.45 -- upper cluster boundary
Current price: 202.19
Support: 199.89-200.50 -- structural floor cluster
Key support: 198.88 -- session Low, thesis line
Extended support: 191.23 -- prior structural low
Two paths this morning:
Recovery path:
Vol Elev enters above 30th pct at open
IMP loads PART mode with RCZ climbing off 16th
Price reclaims 204.65 and tests the FVG cluster
ACE Q2 resolves toward Q1 with directional weight
Target: 208-210 cluster on first leg
Continuation lower:
Price fails to reclaim 204 on first attempt
Vol Elev stays below 10th through the open hour
IMP loads EXT mode as ATR expands from 59th
Support at 199.89 becomes the test
Below 198.88 opens 191.23
The FVG cluster at 205-210 is the decision zone.
Whether price is rejected there or absorbs through it
defines the next 2 to 3 sessions.
What the Stack Is Watching
21 touched FVGs says the market has been doing work.
The overhead cluster at 205-210 is what that work has
been building toward. Volume has not shown up yet to
resolve the test.
Watch Vol Elev and RCZ in the first 30 minutes.
Those two moving together is the signal that the
observation phase is ending.
---
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice.
AUDUSD Bearish After Strong US Inflation Data!Hey Traders,
In today's trading session, we are monitoring AUDUSD for a potential selling opportunity around the 0.70500 zone. AUDUSD is trading in a broader downtrend and is currently in a corrective phase, with price approaching the 0.70500 resistance area, a key support-turned-resistance zone that could provide an attractive opportunity for bearish continuation.
From a fundamental perspective, today's U.S. CPI data came in hotter than expected, reinforcing the market's higher-for-longer interest rate expectations and providing fresh support for the U.S. Dollar. The stronger inflation reading has reduced expectations for near-term Fed easing, pushing Treasury yields higher and increasing demand for the greenback.
For AUDUSD, this creates a difficult backdrop. As a risk-sensitive currency, the Australian Dollar tends to struggle when the U.S. Dollar strengthens and yields move higher. With markets reassessing the outlook for Fed policy following the CPI release, the balance of risks continues to favor USD strength over AUD.
With price now correcting into the 0.70500 resistance zone within a broader bearish structure, rallies continue to look attractive for sellers.
As long as price remains below the 0.70500 resistance zone, the bearish trend remains intact, and we anticipate continuation toward lower support levels.
Trade safe, Joe.
GBP/USD SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
GBP/USD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 1.338
Target Level: 1.335
Stop Loss: 1.340
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
AUDJPY Breakout and Potential Retrace!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring AUDJPY for a selling opportunity around 113.400 zone, AUDJPY was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace at 113.400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USOIL Breakout and Potential Retrace!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USOIL for a selling opportunity around 90.60 zone, USOIL was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 90.60 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GOLD — Target 4150 reached. What now?
The 4150 target from the Jun 10 post was reached today. Price dropped from 4268 support break directly to 4153 with no meaningful bounce.
Two scenarios from here:
Scenario A — Bounce: Price holds 4150, prints a bullish reversal candle on H4. Countertrend move possible toward 4268 (former support, now resistance). Not a trend reversal — just a relief bounce.
Scenario B — Continuation: No hold at 4150, price breaks lower. Next area of interest is 4100, then open air below.
Bias: Still bearish. No reason to buy until structure changes. 4268 remains the key level — only a close above it shifts the picture.
Watching.
GOLD BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 4,329.56
Target Level: 4,240.40
Stop Loss: 4,388.87
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
AUD/CHF BULLISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| LONG
Hello, Friends!
AUD/CHF pair is trading in a local downtrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is red. On the 4H timeframe the pair is going down too. The pair is oversold because the price is close to the lower band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to buy the pair with the lower BB line acting as support. The next target is 0.561 area.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
GBPUSD – Bears Defending the Confluence Zone?GBPUSD is approaching a strong confluence resistance area.
The current rally is bringing price into the intersection of:
🔴 The upper bound of the falling red wedge
🔴 A major resistance zone marked in red
This combination creates a strong non-horizontal resistance area where sellers could step back in.
As long as this intersection holds, we will be looking for trend-following short opportunities. 📉
The overall structure remains bearish for now, and this rebound can still be viewed as a corrective move within the broader downtrend.
A bearish rejection from this confluence zone could open the door for another leg lower toward the lower bound of the wedge and potentially the blue support zone below. 🎯
📌 The key level to watch is the confluence between the wedge resistance and the horizontal resistance zone.
Will the bears defend this area once again? 🤔
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Ripple (XRP) Flashback Update: Wave 5 Downside ContinuationRevisiting our discussion from May 18 2026, the broader outlook already pointed toward increased volatility and downside pressure as macro uncertainty weighed on crypto assets. That scenario has since unfolded, with price action aligning closely with the bearish structure we highlighted at the time.
Looking at Ripple (XRP) on the 4-hour chart now, the market is extending lower with strong momentum following the completion of a bearish ABCDE triangle formation within wave 4. This structure appears to have acted as a terminal consolidation phase before the initiation of wave 5.
Wave 5 now appears to be in full development, pushing price action toward the key psychological and structural support around the 1.0 level. Within this final impulsive leg, the current movement can still be interpreted as a corrective sub-wave “iv” pullback inside wave 5. As long as price remains below the 1.29 invalidation level, the bearish structure remains intact, and the probability favors continuation lower into wave “v” of 5.
In terms of short-term structure, any temporary recovery should be treated cautiously, as it is likely part of internal wave progression rather than a trend reversal. The broader technical picture continues to favor downside continuation until wave 5 completes and a larger degree correction can begin forming.
Overall, the market remains in a late-stage bearish phase, where final wave exhaustion toward the 1.0 support zone is becoming the primary focus.
GOLD — 4268 support broken. Where next?The level that held since the Jun 5 NFP crash — 4268 — broke today. Price is now at 4177, a new multi-month low.
This was the bear continuation scenario from the Jun 8 post. The countertrend bounce toward 4424 never came.
The setup I'm watching:
If price retests 4268 from below and gets rejected — that's the short entry. 4268 is now resistance.
Entry zone: 4260–4275 on a retest
Target: 4100–4150
Invalidation: close above 4300
No retest needed if price just continues lower — next area of interest is 4100–4150 with no significant structure in between.
Bias : Bearish. Gold below 200 SMA for the first time since 2023, dollar above 100, rate hike expectations elevated. No reason to fade this move.
XAUUSD, what lies ahead ?Major bearish trendline is intact since the ATH of Jan 2026, and price has shown multiple rejections from it (marked by red arrows) forming a sustained bearish structure of LL & LH, as marked by Green path, price is expected to surpass the previous low of 4098 to keep the structure intact. Most recent rejection from the falling trendline came at 4595, which was a crucial resistance zone-1 and since then price is on a free fall.
DXY long term structure supports the gold down-move (Look at the referenced ideas).
Moving forward next support is seen at 4098, but if 4098 is broken then price might retest the level of 3900. Immediate resistance is at 4365.
If price shows some strong pull-backs, its expected to stopped-out at the bearish trendline. However immediate resistance is at zone-3 & above that 4363.
For Educational Purposes only, Not an Investment Advice.
Any new perspective you want to add, Please feel free to mention below in the comment.
Regards CrazyTrades247.
Gold — The next move is getting closer
🏆The previous bearish scenario played out exactly as expected after the bearish confirmer was lost, sending price directly into the lower demand zone.
Now Gold is building a new range structure between support and resistance, and the market is approaching a key decision point.
📈 Bullish scenario
If buyers can break and hold above the upper zone, we can expect a continuation toward the next major resistance area and potentially a larger bullish expansion.
📉 Bearish scenario
If the lower demand zone fails to hold, bearish momentum could return and open the path for another leg down.
For now, Gold remains inside the range, but pressure is clearly building near resistance. The next breakout could define the next major move.
CAD/JPY BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
CAD/JPY is making a bullish rebound on the 4H TF and is nearing the resistance line above while we are generally bearish biased on the pair due to our previous 1W candle analysis, thus making a trend-following short a good option for us with the target being the 114.593 level.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
XAU/USD | Gold Liquidity Hunt before The Sell Trend continuationThe Gold Price on 30 minute shows a stark structural shift following a massive, aggressive expansion downward. The previous consolidation at the top of the range 4440 - 4450 was decisively broken displacing price into a heavily bearish market structure. Currently price is experiencing a minor corrective phase, carving out internal liquidity while preparing for its next macro expansion.
Key Confluences
The technical setup highlights a Inner Circle Trader (ICT) short presentation based on three key factors:
Fair Value Gap (FVG) The aggressive displacement left behind a large, unfilled bearish FVG between roughly 4380 and 4400. This acts as a magnet for a premium retracement.
Order Block (OB) Mitigation: Just below the FVG sits a well defined bearish Order Block line around 4365, marking the last institutional buying candle before the market collapsed.
Liquidity Engineering Trendline & Equal Highs: Gold Price is currently building engineered liquidity. We see a clean retail Trendline acting as support, alongside Equal Highs resting just above current price action. This builds up pool buy side liquidity that smart money will likely sweep before dropping the hammer.
Projected Path
The Retracement: Gold Price is expected to break above the immediate internal trendline compression, clearing out the buy side liquidity and trapping early retail shorters.
The Mitigation: This upward spike will drive price directly into the Premium FVG and OB zone 4365 - 4400 to mitigate orders and rebalance the market efficiency.
The Expansion Once institutional supply is tapped, a sharp reversal is projected to target the sell side liquidity resting below the current swing lows, driving hard toward the Liquidity Target New Low at 4100$.
Sentiment
Trade Sentiment Strong Short Bias or Bearish Continuation.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is only for educational purposes. I'm not you Financial advisor.
BTC – Is History Repeating Once Again?To locate and time a potential cycle bottom, I am comparing the current Bitcoin cycle to the previous ones. 🧠
Interestingly, the structure continues to look very similar.
Just like in prior cycles, BTC is now retesting previous major highs, marked in green. Historically, these former resistance zones have often acted as support during major corrections before the next bull market began. 🔑
At the same time, the MACD is showing another encouraging sign. After months of bearish momentum, its angle is now starting to shift from downward to upward, similar to what happened near previous cycle lows. 📊
However, the bulls have not taken control yet.
For the next bull run to begin, a monthly candle close above the 9-period moving average is needed. Until that happens, the current recovery remains a potential bottoming process rather than a confirmed bullish reversal. ⚠️
The coming months could be critical as Bitcoin attempts to repeat the pattern seen in previous cycles.
Will history repeat itself one more time? 🤔
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.
📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
Good luck! 🍀
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
GBP/NZD BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
The BB upper band is nearby so GBP-NZD is in the overbought territory. Thus, despite the uptrend on the 1W timeframe I think that we will see a bearish reaction from the resistance line above and a move down towards the target at around 2.277.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
GBP/AUD SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
GBP/AUD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 1.893
Target Level: 1.887
Stop Loss: 1.896
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Three Strikes And Support Is Out For AJ!OANDA:AUDJPY is currently trading up after making a significant drop in price, falling out of the Triangle pattern it formed, but this rise could just be a Pullback for a much larger move down!
After price delivered a False Breakout of the Horizontal Resistance @ 114.74, price fell through the local Rising Support, rendering this Support, no longer supportive.
Now, price seems to be forming a Low and could be working its way back up to Retest this Breakout of the Rising Support to potentially test as Resistance!
If this is the case and price rises and is rejected at this former Support Line, we should expect Short Opportunities to take price down to lower Support levels:
1) 111.595 - 111.324
2) 109.077 - 108.782
Fundamentally, June 15th - 16th will be impactful for both AUD and JPY with both the RBA and the BOJ looking to set Interest Rates, so stay vigilant!






















