EUR/GBP Breakdown Confirms Bearish Triangle, Wave 3 UnderwayIn our May 20 analysis, we highlighted that EUR/GBP had likely completed a complex WXY structure within wave D of a larger A-B-C-D-E triangle and warned that the pair could be entering the final wave E decline. We also noted that wave E was expected to unfold in three legs, with a corrective wave (B) potentially taking the shape of a bearish triangle before another move lower.
Today, a closer look at the 4-hour chart shows that this scenario is playing out as expected. EUR/GBP is finally breaking below the lower boundary of the bearish triangle pattern that developed within wave (B), while also slipping beneath the February and March lows. This breakdown provides an important bearish confirmation and suggests that sellers are regaining control of the broader trend.
Following the completion of the triangle, the market formed a bearish impulsive setup with visible subwaves 1 and 2. As such, EUR/GBP now appears to be entering wave 3 of a larger five-wave bearish impulse. Since third waves are typically the strongest and steepest portion of an impulse sequence, the current decline has the potential to accelerate and extend over the coming sessions and weeks.
While the broader outlook remains bearish, traders should remain aware of short-term intraday pullbacks, which are common during impulsive declines and can provide temporary relief rallies before the downtrend resumes. As long as the recent breakdown remains intact, the path of least resistance appears to be lower, supporting the view that wave (C) of the larger wave E decline is now underway. Gold (XAUUSD) | 4H Technical Chart Analysis, seems bearishGold has been trading inside a well defined bearish structure for several months, respecting a descending resistance trendline while continuously making lower highs and lower lows.
Recently, price has reached an important reaction zone after creating a fresh multi-month low. This area is interesting because it sits near a historical liquidity pocket where market participants may begin reassessing value.
Price remains below the long-term descending resistance trendline.
The current zone around recent lows is acting as a key reaction area.
Historical liquidity often accumulates near major support regions, making this an important area to monitor.
If buyers step in, a short term recovery toward higher resistance levels could develop.
If weakness continues, the next liquidity zones highlighted on the chart may become relevant.
For now, market structure remains bearish, but reaction at current levels may provide clues about the next phase of price action.
Why this chart matters:
Markets rarely move in straight lines forever. After extended trends, traders often watch for signs of exhaustion, liquidity sweeps, and shifts in momentum. The current area could become an important reference point for future price action.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading or investment decisions.
— @TraderRahulPal
SCA Registered Financial Influencer (Dubai, UAE) 
Short
Short 
Long
GBPUSD — Key Support in Focus — Buy Zone or Bearish Extension?From a broader perspective, GBPUSD has been trading inside a well-defined range structure since the beginning of May 2025, consistently respecting the boundaries between the blue support zone and the red resistance area.
At the moment, price is approaching the lower boundary of the range, returning to an area that previously attracted buying pressure and generated multiple market reactions.
This creates an interesting technical location to monitor.
From a trading perspective, this region may offer an opportunity to look for buy setups, provided price delivers a confirmed rejection from the support zone.
From here, two scenarios become relevant:
→ Bullish scenario:
If price respects the current support and shows signs of rejection, we may see another rotation inside the range structure, with potential movement back toward the red resistance zone.
→ Bearish scenario:
If support fails to hold and price breaks below the range with confirmation, this could signal that sellers are taking control and increase the probability of a broader downside expansion.
For now, the key question is:
Can buyers defend the lower boundary once again, or is the market preparing for a structural shift?
This is a scenario-based analysis — not a prediction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for educational purposes only. It reflects personal market observations and does not constitute financial advice or a trading recommendation.
Rayan Nasser
#GBPUSD #GBP #USD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #RangeTrading #Trading #RiskManagement SPY's Daily Just Flipped Back to LONG. The Hourly...SPY's Daily Just Flipped Back to LONG. The Hourly Didn't Get
the Memo.
Yesterday's post called the resolution of the five-session
cross-timeframe standoff, the Hourly won and the Daily stopped
arguing. One session later the Daily is arguing again. The
thesis flipped from MEDIUM SHORT back to MEDIUM LONG overnight,
the Direction reads Q1 LONG, the Light is GREEN, and the ACE
CQI jumped to 89.9, the highest Daily conviction read on SPY
this cycle. Meanwhile the Hourly is still RED, Q2 neutral,
with the 56-bar bear print at CQI 68.16 holding steady and
EXT MODE still active on the SYNTH Gate. Price dropped another
$10.81 yesterday and is sitting at 736.88 this morning, right
on top of the 736.50-736.87 key support. The Daily looked at
that and decided it was bullish. The Hourly looked at it and
didn't change its mind.
Resistance: 740.44 - nearest overhead
Key resistance: 742.71-743.45 - the cluster above
Current price: 736.88
Support: 736.50-736.87 - the level price is sitting on now
Key support: 732.45 - next shelf below
Thesis line: 721.23 - the broader floor
Two paths from here:
The Daily is right: the CQI 89.9 read and the PARTIAL signal
mark this as a capitulation low, Vol Elev enters on a bounce,
price reclaims 740.44 and pushes toward 742. The Hourly's bear
print finally gets overridden.
The Hourly is right: the EXT MODE flag and the undecayed bear
print hold, 736.50 fails, price drops to 732.45. The Daily's
LONG flip was premature, the same way its SHORT flip yesterday
turned out to be a single-session read rather than a trend
change.
The Daily has now flipped thesis direction twice in two sessions.
MEDIUM SHORT yesterday, MEDIUM LONG today. That kind of
oscillation usually means the Daily is reacting to price rather
than leading it. The Hourly's bear print has been steady for
56 bars through all of it. Stability of conviction versus
reactivity of conviction is the real comparison this morning.
---
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. NVDA Is Sitting on Its Thesis Line for the First Time This CycleNVDA Is Sitting on Its Thesis Line for the First Time This Cycle.
The 198.88-199.89 zone that has anchored the bottom of every
cheat sheet since this posting series began is now directly
beneath price. The Daily candle yesterday dropped to 200.00
exactly, and the 1H is sitting at 201.52 this morning with
the Last Ann labels from both timeframes visible on screen
just below current price. Both timeframes agree on direction
for the second session running - the Hourly's 21-bar bear
print at CQI 82.93 barely decayed from yesterday's 83.2,
and the Daily's 60-bar bear print at CQI 62.2 is still
holding. PANIC is active on the Daily, DISBELIEF on the
Hourly, and the Daily's Entry Signal reads FORMING.
Resistance: 202.20-203.28 - nearest overhead
Key resistance: 204.65-205.75 - last week's floor
Current price: 201.52
Support: 199.89-200.08 - the thesis line, first time in play
Key support: 198.41-198.47 - deeper structural shelf
Below that: 197.13-191.23 - open space into the April low
Two paths from here:
The thesis line holds: price bounces off 199.89-200, Vol Elev
climbs from its current 2nd percentile, a relief move pushes
back toward 204. The bear prints age without follow-through
the way the prior 74.93 CQI print did two weeks ago.
The thesis line breaks: price loses 199.89 with participation.
That opens 198.41-197.13, and below that there is relatively
thin structure down to 191.23, the April low. The Hourly's
near-CQI-83 bear print and the Daily's PANIC state would both
be confirmed in a way they haven't been yet this cycle.
The Hourly's CQI of 82.93 is the second-highest conviction
read the system has produced on any published instrument in
this entire posting history. The only higher one was QH's
92.41, on an instrument with broken price history. This is
the real thing, on a validated instrument, at the thesis line.
Today matters.
---
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. 
Short
BTC's Bear Print Just Crossed 189 Bars.BTC's Bear Print Just Crossed 189 Bars. The Dashboard Has Given
Up Trying to Fight It.
Yesterday morning the stack loaded hard against the standing
bear announcement - MEDIUM LONG thesis, PARTIAL signal, IMP at
2/5, Vol Elev at 71st. That challenge failed. The PARTIAL signal
decayed back to WAIT, Vol Elev collapsed from 71st to 8th, IMP
dropped from 2/5 back to 0/5. The bear print at CQI 65.59 is
now 189 bars old and has survived every challenge this market has
produced for over two weeks. At this point the ecosystem has
thrown a PARTIAL signal, a DISBELIEF state, multiple EXT MODE
cycles, and a complete 1H thesis flip at it, and the conviction
read hasn't moved a single point. The Daily's FP Data came back
online after going dark yesterday, but the direction still reads
Q4 SHORT and the standing Daily announcement is still the
2,253-bar bull print with CQI:NaN that the engine can't
normalize.
Resistance: 63,625.81-63,796.21 - the shelf that has capped
every bounce this cycle
Key resistance: 64,400.89-64,759.19 - the zone above
Current price: 63,010
Support: 62,459.75 - the level tested twice now
Key support: 61,862.27 - this cycle's low
Thesis line: 59,073.01 - the Daily low
Two paths from here:
Another challenge: Vol Elev climbs off the 8th percentile floor,
the stack reloads toward PARTIAL again, price makes another run
at 63,625. But the last two attempts at this exact trade (the
65,553 push on June 22 and yesterday's PARTIAL signal) both
failed at the same resistance zone.
The floor gives: price loses 62,459 for the third test, the
61,862 low fails to hold, and the thesis line at 59,073 becomes
the operative target. No PARTIAL signal or DISBELIEF flag loaded
on this side currently.
Two failed challenges at 63,625-65,553 in a week, followed by
immediate reversals, is a pattern. The bear print has now
outlasted every attempt to kill it. Whatever replaces it
eventually will need to bring something the last two runs didn't.
---
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice. 
Short
BABA — Long-Term Structure in Focus — Next Bullish Leg?For investors with a medium- to long-term perspective, BABA is approaching a technically interesting area worth monitoring.
From a broader perspective, price has been trading inside a large ascending broadening wedge for an extended period, respecting its structure and reacting consistently around its boundaries.
At the moment, price is testing the lower boundary of the wedge, which also aligns with an important support area that has previously generated multiple strong rejections.
This confluence creates an interesting decision zone where market participants may start watching for signs of renewed buying pressure.
From here, two scenarios become relevant:
→ Bullish scenario:
If price respects the current support and confirms rejection, we may see a recovery move toward the green resistance zone, creating the potential for the next bullish leg within the broader structure.
→ Bearish scenario:
If support fails to hold and price breaks below the current area with confirmation, the focus shifts toward the lower support & demand zone, which may become the next area of interest to reassess long-term opportunities.
At this stage, the focus is not on anticipating direction, but on observing whether buyers can defend this historically respected region.
For now, the key question is:
Will support trigger the next rebound, or is the market preparing for a deeper corrective phase?
This is a scenario-based analysis — not a prediction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for educational purposes only. It reflects personal market observations and does not constitute financial advice or a trading recommendation.
Rayan Nasser
#BABA #Stocks #Alibaba #TechnicalAnalysis #LongTermInvesting #PriceAction #Investing #StockMarket #RiskManagement AUDCAD Buy at 0.97700 as Hot Australian CPI Fuels Bulls!Hey Traders,
In today's trading session, we are monitoring AUDCAD for a buying opportunity around the 0.97700 zone. AUDCAD is trading in a strong uptrend and is currently in a correction phase, with price approaching the 0.97700 support and resistance area, a key zone that could provide an attractive opportunity for bullish continuation.
From a fundamental perspective, the Australian Dollar received fresh support after Australia's latest Trimmed Mean CPI accelerated to 3.6%, signaling that underlying inflation pressures remain persistent. The stronger inflation reading has reduced expectations for aggressive policy easing and has strengthened the case for relatively higher interest rates in Australia.
Looking ahead, attention now turns to upcoming Australian economic data. If tonight's releases continue to show resilience in the economy and labor market, markets may further scale back easing expectations, providing an additional boost to the Australian Dollar.
On the other side of the pair, the Canadian Dollar remains vulnerable to fluctuations in global growth sentiment and commodity markets, creating a favorable backdrop for AUD outperformance should Australian data continue surprising to the upside.
With price correcting into the 0.97700 support zone within a broader bullish structure, the current pullback may offer an attractive opportunity for buyers to position in line with the prevailing trend.
As long as price remains above the 0.97700 support zone, the bullish structure remains intact, and we anticipate continuation toward higher resistance levels.
Trade safe,
Joe Short 
Short
XAUUSD: Bearish CHOCH Confirms Supply Zone Rejection – Target ?Market Overview
Gold (XAUUSD) has shifted its structure back to a bearish narrative on the 30-minute timeframe. After a period of corrective upward movement that established a short-term Market Structure Shift (MSS), price found strong rejection at the $4,200 Resistance level, forming a prominent Supply Zone between $4,155 and $4,190.
The recent aggressive sell-off has broken below the key demand pivot, confirming a CHOCH (Change of Character) to the downside.
Technical Breakdown
The Catalyst (CHOCH): The decisive break below the $4,140 level shifts our intraday bias heavily to the sell side. This invalidates the brief bullish structure and aligns the lower timeframes with the broader bearish momentum.
Supply Zone: A well-defined supply block sits right above current prices ($4,155 – $4,190). Any corrective pullbacks into this region will look highly attractive for short entries.
Price Action: Price is currently trading around $4,115. We anticipate a potential minor correction/retest of the broken structure or the lower boundary of the supply zone before the next major leg down.
Trading Plan
Bias: Bearish / Short on rallies
Entry Zone: Look for short setups on a retracement back into the Supply Zone ($4,155 - $4,185) or on a bearish continuation pattern following the CHOCH.
Invalidation / Stop Loss: A daily close above the $4,200 Resistance level invalidates this bearish setup.
Take Profit Target: $4,060 (Major liquidity pool / structural support level). Short 
XAUUSD — Bearish Structure Holds Below EMA Resistance
Fundamental Analysis
Gold remains under short-term bearish pressure as price continues to trade below the main EMA structure. Traders are still watching USD momentum, Treasury yields, and upcoming U.S. macro data.
For now, the recovery attempts remain weak while price fails to reclaim the value range above.
Technical Analysis
On the 2H chart, XAUUSD is still trading below EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200. This shows that the bearish structure remains active, with the EMA zone acting as dynamic resistance.
Price recently failed around the value range near 4,200 - 4,220 and then dropped back below short-term support. This rejection confirms that buyers are still not strong enough to reverse the trend.
The key sell reaction zone is around 4,150 - 4,169. This area aligns with the broken short-term structure, Fibonacci reaction level, and the current bearish continuation zone shown on the chart.
If price retests this zone and fails to reclaim it, sellers may continue pushing gold toward the lower Fibonacci and liquidity areas. The next important support is around 4,100, followed by the deeper convergence zone near 4,064 - 4,034.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 4,139
Sell reaction zone: 4,150 - 4,169
Value range resistance: 4,200 - 4,220
EMA resistance area: 4,201 - 4,241
Short-term support: 4,100 - 4,105
Fibonacci liquidity zone: 4,064 - 4,067
Main bearish target: 4,034
Invalidation area: above 4,201
Trading Scenario
Main Sell Scenario
Entry: 4,150 - 4,169
Stop Loss: 4,201
Take Profit 1: 4,100
Take Profit 2: 4,064
Take Profit 3: 4,034
Sell Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for gold to retest the 4,150 - 4,169 sell reaction zone. This area is important because it aligns with the broken structure and Fibonacci reaction level.
A sell setup becomes more valid if price forms bearish rejection from this zone, such as a long upper wick, bearish engulfing candle, failed breakout, or lower high below the EMA structure.
If price rejects from the sell zone and breaks below 4,100, the bearish continuation view becomes stronger. The next downside focus would be 4,064 - 4,067, followed by the main target around 4,034.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to retest 4,150 - 4,169.
Look for bearish rejection before entering sell.
A break below 4,100 confirms stronger downside pressure.
If price breaks and holds above 4,201, the sell setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view remains bearish while XAUUSD trades below EMA 34, EMA 89, EMA 200, and the previous value range. The preferred plan is to wait for a retest of 4,150 - 4,169, then look for sell confirmation toward 4,100, 4,064, and 4,034.
Do you share the same bearish view on gold, or are you waiting for a cleaner rejection from the sell reaction zone?
Short 
XAU- Intraday Corrective Bounce After Sell-Side Liquidity Sweep
Gold is trading around $4,064 after sweeping sell-side liquidity and reacting from the lower area. The short-term trend is still under pressure, but after a strong drop, price may build a corrective bounce today before the next bigger direction is confirmed.
From an SMC perspective, gold has taken downside liquidity first, then started to react. This gives room for a recovery move back into the nearest liquidity and OB zones above. The key area to watch first is $4,100–$4,110, where buy-side liquidity is sitting. If price breaks above this zone, the next upside draw is the OB zone around $4,130–$4,140, followed by the FVG area near $4,160–$4,175.
The main idea today is to wait for a clean pullback or confirmation before buying. I do not want to chase the first reaction candle after a liquidity sweep.
Buy setup 1
Condition:
Gold holds above the sell-side liquidity sweep area and creates bullish MSS / CHOCH on lower timeframe.
Entry: $4,055–$4,070
SL: below $4,040
TP1: $4,100
TP2: $4,130
TP3: $4,160–$4,175
Buy setup 2
Condition:
If gold breaks above $4,100–$4,110 and retests this zone as support, bullish continuation remains valid.
Entry: $4,100–$4,110 after breakout retest
SL: below $4,080
TP1: $4,130–$4,140
TP2: $4,160–$4,175
TP3: $4,195–$4,205
Sell setup
Condition:
Selling is not the first priority during the corrective bounce. A sell setup is only valid if gold reaches $4,160–$4,175 or $4,195–$4,205 and shows clear bearish rejection with MSS / CHOCH.
Entry: $4,160–$4,175 after rejection
SL: above $4,200
TP1: $4,130
TP2: $4,100
TP3: $4,064
Key levels
Current price area: $4,064
Sell-side liquidity sweep: $4,045–$4,055
Buy-side liquidity: $4,100–$4,110
OB zone: $4,130–$4,140
FVG target: $4,160–$4,175
Higher OB reaction zone: $4,195–$4,205
Bullish invalidation: clean 1H close below $4,040
My current view for today is that gold may recover first after sweeping sell-side liquidity. The move is a corrective bounce, not a full bullish reversal yet. The best Prime Gold plan is to wait for structure confirmation, then follow the recovery toward the liquidity and FVG zones above.
No confirmation, no trade.
Long 
MASON XAUUSD – Gold Breaks Trendline, Sell Continuation In Focus
XAUUSD is trading around 4,140 after a strong bearish move. Price has broken below the short-term rising trendline and remains below the Ichimoku cloud, showing that sellers are still controlling the structure.
The main view is sell continuation, especially if price retests the broken trendline or previous support zones.
Technical View
Gold has broken the rising trendline that previously supported the recovery wave. This is an important signal because the market is no longer respecting the short-term bullish structure.
Price Action is showing lower highs after the rejection from the 4,200 area. The latest breakdown below the trendline confirms that buying momentum is weak, while sellers are pressing price toward deeper liquidity.
Ichimoku also supports the bearish view. Price is trading below the cloud, and the cloud above price is now acting as dynamic resistance. As long as gold stays below the cloud, recovery attempts should be treated as pullbacks, not a confirmed reversal.
The Fibonacci zones are important now. Price is reacting near the 1.618 extension area, but if this level cannot hold, gold may continue lower toward the 2.618 liquidity zone and the 3.618 crucial support area.
Key Zones
Current price: 4,140
Sell entry 1: 4,145–4,160
Sell entry 2: 4,170–4,185
Short-term resistance: 4,200–4,220
Fibonacci 1.618 area: 4,125–4,135
Liquidity level: 4,070–4,080
Crucial support: 4,020–4,030
Invalidation: above 4,200
Trading Plan
Sell Priority: 4,145–4,160
Condition: wait for bearish rejection, failed recovery above the broken trendline, or price staying below the Ichimoku cloud.
SL: above 4,200
TP1: 4,125–4,135
TP2: 4,070–4,080
TP3: 4,020–4,030
Second Sell Setup
Sell Zone: 4,170–4,185
Condition: only consider this zone if gold pulls back deeper and rejects from the previous support area.
SL: above 4,220
TP1: 4,125–4,135
TP2: 4,070–4,080
TP3: 4,020–4,030
Alternative Scenario
If gold breaks directly below 4,125, wait for a retest of this zone as resistance before looking for continuation toward 4,070 and 4,020.
Buy View
Buy is not the priority while price remains below the broken trendline and Ichimoku cloud. A short-term bounce may appear near Fibonacci support, but it needs clear bullish confirmation before considering any recovery setup.
Final View
Overall, gold is under bearish pressure after breaking the trendline. As long as price stays below 4,170–4,185 and the Ichimoku cloud, sell continuation remains the cleaner view.
Will gold retest the sell zone first, or drop directly toward the Fibonacci liquidity levels?
Short 
XAUUSD Weekly Plan — Is Gold Walking Into Another Seller Test?Gold is entering a very important week.
Price is trying to hold above the lower structure, but the bigger picture still shows one clear thing:
The descending trendline is still controlling the market.
THE SIMPLE READ
Gold is still moving under a major bearish trendline.
That means every recovery needs to be tested carefully, especially when price is approaching a short-term Order Sell zone.
Right now, gold is trading around the 4,155 area. The market is not too far from the 4,180 - 4,220 resistance zone, where sellers may start watching again.
For beginners, this is not a place to guess.
This is a place to wait and see whether gold can break the trendline — or reject from it again.
WHAT I SEE
The first key area is 4,180 - 4,220.
This is the short-term Order Sell zone. It also sits near the falling trendline, so if gold reacts here, sellers may try to protect the bearish structure.
Below price, the next important area is around 4,000.
This zone matters because it sits near the lower support line. If gold loses this area, the bearish move may become cleaner.
The next larger zone is 3,850 - 3,900.
This is a POC area, where price may react because the market has shown strong volume interest there before.
The deeper support is around 3,600 - 3,670.
This is marked as the POC - Order Buy zone. If gold continues lower into this area, buyers may start watching for a stronger reaction.
THE WEEKLY PLAN
📉 IF gold rejects from 4,180 - 4,220 and stays below the descending trendline:
→ Sellers may keep control of the weekly structure
→ Price could move back toward 4,000 first
→ If 4,000 breaks, the next downside area is 3,850 - 3,900
→ A deeper move could open toward 3,600 - 3,670
→ Possible sell idea: after bearish confirmation near resistance
→ Invalidation: clear break and hold above the trendline
📈 IF gold breaks and holds above 4,220:
→ The short-term bearish pressure may slow down
→ Buyers may try to build a recovery structure
→ But the breakout needs confirmation, not just one fast candle
→ Possible buy idea: only after breakout and retest confirmation
→ First upside area: 4,300 - 4,350
⏳ No confirmation = no trade.
💡 Tiara’s Tip:
A market can bounce and still remain bearish.
That is why I never judge gold only by one green candle.
The real question is:
Can price break the trendline and hold above it?
If not, the bounce may only be a retest before another move lower.
For this week, I’m watching 4,180 - 4,220 as the seller test zone.
If sellers defend it, gold may continue lower toward the POC zones.
If buyers break it clearly, the market may start showing early recovery signs.
YOUR TURN
💬 What do you see for gold this week — will sellers defend 4,180 - 4,220, or will buyers finally break the trendline?
Drop a 🔴 for seller rejection or 🟢 for breakout recovery below 👇
Short 
Short
