Setup: On the 4h, RB has been in a clear uptrend since the Apr 17 spike low near 2.84, printing higher lows and higher highs through the 3.00, 3.10, and 3.20 levels. The 1h shows an impulsive leg launching from the 3.10 consolidation zone on Apr 22, with successive breakout candles through 3.20, 3.25, and now pushing toward 3.35+. The Apr 23 session has seen multiple strong green closes with expanding volume — the 11:00 and 12:00 bars printed the highest volume of the recent run (~4100 and ~6000 contracts) with closes well above opens, confirming buyer conviction at the breakout. Price is currently pressing against the recent session high with no exhaustion wicks visible yet.
Flow: Energy-specific strength is the dominant driver — RB and CL ripping +3%+ while broader macro (equities, crypto) trades risk-off suggests crack spread expansion or seasonal demand dynamics rather than a macro bid. This kind of divergence from the tape typically reflects real commodity demand flow rather than risk-on positioning, giving the move more durability. The volume surge on today's breakout bars aligns with institutional participation.
Plan: Stop is placed below the breakout shelf from the Apr 22-23 consolidation band — a close back into that range would invalidate the breakout thesis. Target is the next clean psychological and structural level above, where the HTF chart shows no prior congestion. Given the extended intraday run, entry is at market with a short TTL — if price fades materially before fill, the setup loses its edge.
📍 Entry: 3.3447
🛑 Stop: 3.31
🎯 Target: 3.42
⚖️ R:R: 2.17
Flow: Energy-specific strength is the dominant driver — RB and CL ripping +3%+ while broader macro (equities, crypto) trades risk-off suggests crack spread expansion or seasonal demand dynamics rather than a macro bid. This kind of divergence from the tape typically reflects real commodity demand flow rather than risk-on positioning, giving the move more durability. The volume surge on today's breakout bars aligns with institutional participation.
Plan: Stop is placed below the breakout shelf from the Apr 22-23 consolidation band — a close back into that range would invalidate the breakout thesis. Target is the next clean psychological and structural level above, where the HTF chart shows no prior congestion. Given the extended intraday run, entry is at market with a short TTL — if price fades materially before fill, the setup loses its edge.
📍 Entry: 3.3447
🛑 Stop: 3.31
🎯 Target: 3.42
⚖️ R:R: 2.17
monk.trade — Trade setups and market intelligence
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.
monk.trade — Trade setups and market intelligence
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם מיועדים להיות, ואינם מהווים, ייעוץ או המלצה פיננסית, השקעתית, מסחרית או מכל סוג אחר המסופקת או מאושרת על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד ב־תנאי השימוש.