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XAUUSD: Bullish Wave 5 May Start After Pullback
Gold is showing a clear recovery structure after completing the previous bearish cycle near the lower area. From Kelly’s view, the chart is now shifting into a bullish Elliott sequence, but price may still need one corrective pullback before wave 5 continues higher.
The key idea is simple: gold is bullish in the short term, but the better setup may come from a clean retest of the buy zone, not from chasing the current push.
⟡ Market structure
The chart shows gold has reacted strongly from the lower base near 3,960 and created a sequence of higher lows. Price has already broken back above the descending pressure line, which is an important sign that sellers are losing control in the short-term structure.
Gold is now trading around 4,075 after a strong recovery move. However, price is approaching the 4,090–4,100 sell wave 4 zone, so a short correction from this area would be normal.
The main support to watch is the 4,040–4,050 buy zone wave 5. If gold pulls back into this area and buyers defend it, the next upside leg may continue towards the Fibonacci 2.618 target near 4,145–4,155.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,040–4,050: buy zone wave 5 and key pullback area
◌ 4,075: current price reaction area
◌ 4,090–4,100: sell wave 4 / short-term resistance
◌ 4,138: previous Fibonacci reference zone
◌ 4,145–4,155: final wave 5 completion area
◌ Below 4,030: area where the bullish setup starts to weaken
◌ Below 4,000: area where the wave count needs reassessment
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be building a bullish 5-wave recovery after the previous bearish structure ended.
Wave 1 created the first upside reaction from the low.
Wave 2 corrected back but held above the base.
Wave 3 expanded strongly and pushed gold back above the broken trendline.
Wave 4 may now form as a controlled pullback into the 4,040–4,050 buy zone.
If that zone holds, wave 5 may begin and aim for the 4,145–4,155 completion area.
This is why Kelly would not chase the current price directly into resistance. The stronger setup is to wait for wave 4 to finish, then look for confirmation that wave 5 is starting.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for gold to pull back into the buy zone wave 5 and show bullish confirmation.
Entry zone: 4,040–4,050 if bullish confirmation appears
Stop loss: below the confirmed wave 4 low or below 4,030
Take profit 1: 4,090–4,100
Take profit 2: 4,138
Take profit 3: 4,145–4,155
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks above 4,100 without a pullback and holds strongly, price may continue directly towards the wave 5 target. In that case, a retest of 4,090–4,100 as support would become the cleaner continuation setup.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, the bullish recovery structure is improving, but the market is now close to a short-term resistance zone. That means the best plan is patience.
If gold corrects into 4,040–4,050 and buyers defend the zone, the next wave 5 move may continue towards the higher Fibonacci target.
Gold is building a bullish Elliott structure.
A controlled pullback may prepare the next move higher.
Share your view below.
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KAITO price analysis👨💻 Those who have been holding CRYPTOCAP:KAITO since our previous analysis may want to start watching the chart more closely.
▪️ OKX:KAITOUSDT has now entered an interesting and highly liquid zone between $1.02 and $1.32. The $1.19 level is particularly noteworthy, as buyers struggled to break through it, and that battle is clearly visible on the chart.
▪️ There are a few other things that catch our attention. Price is approaching major trendlines, the current rally has unfolded with almost no meaningful pullbacks, and most importantly, the move has not been supported by a noticeable increase in trading volume.
▪️ For now, our conclusion is fairly straightforward. The market may still push CRYPTOCAP:KAITO a little higher, but every additional cent is likely to become more difficult to gain. On the other hand, sending the price back down would probably require much less effort.
Of course, we could be missing something.
💬 So tell us: what fundamental reasons do you see that could justify a significantly higher valuation for CRYPTOCAP:KAITO ?
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🚀 Don’t miss out on important market moves
🧠 DYOR | This is not financial advice, just thinking out loud Sedco Capital Reit Fund : From Deep Discount to Potential 14–16TADAWUL:4344
📈 From Deep Discount to Potential 14–16 Target? The Weekly Chart Tells an Interesting Story 🔥
The weekly chart suggests that price may have completed a major accumulation and recovery phase after rebounding from a deep discounted Fibonacci retracement zone of the previous bullish swing from 4.14 to 11.00.
🔍 The Price Structure
After the initial bullish move, price retraced within a descending parallel channel, eventually forming a significant swing low near 5.91 in November 2025.
Since that low, price has demonstrated strong weekly bullish momentum and steadily recovered, despite the severe geopolitical conflict affecting the region during the first half of 2026.
This resilience is an important technical observation.
⚠️ Key Resistance: 8.10–8.25
Price is now approaching a significant resistance zone around 8.10–8.25, which aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.
At this stage, the market may need to cool off before continuing higher.
This could happen through:
🔹 Sideways consolidation
🔹 A controlled technical correction
🔹 A retest of previous breakout levels
🎯 Two Critical Correction Zones
If price experiences a pullback, two areas stand out:
📍 7.13 — Parallel Channel Breakout Retest
A retest of the previous descending channel breakout could provide an important support test.
📍 6.80 — 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement Zone
This area represents the deeper Fibonacci retracement level of the latest bullish swing and could act as a potential demand zone.
🚀 Breakout Strategy
For new positions, chasing price at the current market price may carry a relatively higher risk due to the nearby resistance zone.
A confirmed breakout above 8.25, preferably followed by a successful retest and support confirmation, could provide a more favorable risk-reward entry for momentum traders.
📊 Potential Upside Targets
If the bullish structure remains intact:
🎯 Initial upside target: Around 12.00
This is where the projected AB=CD harmonic pattern could reach completion.
🔭 Extended target zone: 14.00–16.00
A Reverse Fibonacci Extension projection suggests the possibility of a larger measured move toward this region.
🧠 My View
The broader weekly market structure remains bullish, but price is now entering a major technical decision zone.
The key question is:
Will price break above 8.25 and accelerate higher, or will the market first consolidate and retest lower support levels before the next major move?
For me, 8.25 remains the key trigger level, while 7.13 and 6.80 are the important correction and accumulation zones to monitor.
Do you think this is a breakout setup—or does price need one more correction before the next leg higher? 👀
Share your view below. ⬇️
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