BTCUSD Breaks Descending Channel | 88K Liquidity in Focus🔹 BTCUSD has broken above the descending channel structure after multiple tests of its upper boundary, suggesting a shift in short-term price action. Price is currently holding around the 81,000 area after a strong bullish expansion from the 76,000–77,000 support zone. The breakout places attention on the recent swing highs around 82,000, while the larger highlighted liquidity area near 88,000 remains an important resistance region. The previous channel structure and support zone continue to provide key areas for market structure analysis.
🔸 If BTCUSD maintains the breakout and holds above the former channel resistance, price could continue building toward higher liquidity, with the 88,000 area becoming a potential zone of interest. Traders may wait for price confirmation and a successful retest before considering any trade. If the breakout fails and price moves back below the 76,000–77,000 support area, the bullish structure could weaken and a deeper retracement might develop.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
Technical Analysis
XAUUSD — Weekly Wave 5 Lower Toward 4,060
From Kelly’s view, gold enters next week inside a broader bearish corrective structure. Price is currently trading around 4,378, after recovering from the 4,240–4,250 area, but the rebound is still developing beneath a descending channel and an important sell zone around 4,390–4,410.
The key idea is simple: the current recovery may represent a corrective Wave (4), while the main weekly scenario remains a continuation lower into Wave (5) if sellers defend the upper resistance zone.
⟡ Market structure
Gold remains inside a descending structure after the major peak near 4,680. Recent rebounds have continued to form below important resistance, while the descending channel is still controlling the broader direction.
The current recovery from around 4,240 has pushed price back toward the 4,390–4,410 sell zone, where Fibonacci resistance and the projected Wave (4) completion area overlap.
For next week, 4,334 is the first important support. A clean break below this level could confirm renewed bearish momentum and expose the 4,240–4,255 area.
If that support also fails, the larger Wave (5) projection points toward the 4,045–4,075 zone.
➤ Key levels
◌ Current price area: 4,375–4,385
◌ Main sell zone: 4,390–4,410
◌ Strong resistance: 4,410–4,430
◌ Strong support: 4,334
◌ Secondary support: 4,240–4,255
◌ First target: 4,334
◌ Second target: 4,240–4,255
◌ Main target: 4,045–4,075
◌ Invalidation: Above 4,430
⌁ Elliott Wave view
Wave (1): The first bearish leg pushed price lower from the previous recovery high.
Wave (2): Gold produced a corrective rebound before sellers regained control.
Wave (3): The stronger bearish impulse extended toward the 4,240 area.
Wave (4): The current rebound may be completing near 4,390–4,410, where the descending channel and Fibonacci resistance overlap.
Wave (5): If sellers reject this zone, the final bearish leg could develop toward 4,240 first, followed by the larger 4,045–4,075 target area.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred bearish scenario
Entry: 4,390–4,410 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,430
Take Profit 1: 4,334
Take Profit 2: 4,240–4,255
Take Profit 3: 4,045–4,075
The cleaner plan is to wait for rejection from the sell zone rather than chase price lower around current levels. A bearish reaction near 4,390–4,410, followed by a break below 4,334, would strengthen the Wave (5) scenario.
Alternative scenario:
If gold breaks above 4,410–4,430 and holds above the descending structure, the bearish Wave (5) setup may be delayed and price could extend toward the next higher resistance before sellers regain control.
◌ Invalidation
The main bearish scenario would weaken if price gains sustained acceptance above 4,410, and a confirmed break above 4,430 would invalidate the preferred Wave (5) structure for next week.
⌁ Kelly’s view
Kelly’s main view remains bearish for next week while gold stays below 4,390–4,430.
The current rebound may still have room to test the sell zone, but the broader structure favors another bearish leg if sellers defend resistance. 4,334 is the first confirmation level, while 4,240–4,255 remains the next major support before the larger 4,045–4,075 Wave (5) target comes into focus.
Do you think gold will reject the 4,390–4,410 sell zone first, or break 4,334 directly next week?
EURUSD Bearish Breakdown | Resistance Retest & Liquidity Below🔹 EURUSD is showing a bearish shift in market structure after breaking below the rising trendline of the previous consolidation pattern. Price has moved away from the 1.1600 area and is currently trading near 1.1485, with the 1.1550–1.1570 region highlighted as resistance. The recent breakdown suggests sellers have gained short-term control, while the lower price action is consolidating above the marked liquidity area around 1.1350–1.1360. This zone could remain important for the next phase of EURUSD price action and technical analysis.
🔸 If the 1.1550–1.1570 resistance zone continues to hold, EURUSD could remain under bearish pressure and potentially revisit the lower liquidity area. Traders may wait for clear price confirmation before considering any trade scenario. If price breaks back above the highlighted resistance and establishes support there, the bearish structure could weaken and a recovery toward higher levels might develop. Conversely, failure to hold the current lower structure could expose the marked liquidity zone.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
ETH/USD SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
ETH/USD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 2,634.09
Target Level: 2,340.23
Stop Loss: 2,829.57
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
XAUUSD Long: Channel Breakout Could Drive Price Higher To 4,450$Hello traders! Here’s my technical outlook based on the current XAUUSD (2H) chart structure. XAUUSD previously traded inside an ascending channel before breaking higher and later forming a descending channel. Price then tested the Supply Zone near 4,450, where sellers rejected the upside before pulling back toward demand.
Currently, XAUUSD is trading below the 4,450 Supply Zone while holding above the 4,310 Demand Zone. The recent bounce from support suggests buyers are preparing for another move higher.
As long as XAUUSD remains above 4,310 and respects the current support structure, the bullish scenario remains valid. A continuation higher could target 4,450 (TP1). However, a break below 4,310 would weaken the bullish outlook. Manage your risk!
The Elephant Jungle 9/20/26 Page 1Are the Bulls about to make a big move and flip the market Bullish?
I only ask because if the Bulls can get over the ATH Anchor VWAP and get a solid candle body close above the 1M High, they could flip the ATH Anchor VWAP to Support and have a fresh new 1M Demand Range to fall back on as they continue their fight back up to ATH.
And after catching some nice Support off the 2022 Anchor VWAP, the Bulls have put together two solid Bullish months, so solid that it is starting to look like a Three White Soldiers Candle Pattern could form on the 1M.
But lets not get too far ahead of ourselves.
Because the Bears still have these Bulls chained up like some mean junkyard dogs.
And that ATH Anchor VWAP has not given out yet.
In fact, if the Bulls don’t shake loose from that chain this month, this candle just may actually form an Evening Star Candlestick Pattern, a bearish reversal pattern that just happens to be a signal that the Bears could be ready to take back over and send these Bulls back down to the Range Low.
So with 10 days left, will the Bears keep the Bulls in check and keep the market moving their way?
Or will the Bulls finally be OFF THE CHAIN like it’s the late 90s and somebody just pressed play on DMX’s “Party Up”?
Because if these Bulls can break that chain, flip that ATH Anchor VWAP to Support, and secure that 1M body close above the 1M High, we could be looking at a whole different market as the Bulls start climbing their way back toward All Time High.
The question is, are the Bulls finally ready to break free?
XAUUSD — Descending Channel Breakout Toward 4,500 Liquidity🔹 XAUUSD is showing a broader corrective structure within a descending channel, while recent price action suggests buyers are gaining some control after reacting from the 4,250–4,300 support area. Price has pushed back above the channel’s upper boundary, indicating a potential breakout attempt, with resistance developing around 4,400–4,450. The marked liquidity area near 4,500–4,520 remains an important upside zone, while the recent higher lows suggest improving short-term market structure.
🔸 If the breakout remains supported, XAUUSD could continue toward the 4,500 liquidity area as buyers test higher resistance. Traders may wait for price confirmation and sustained acceptance above the breakout area before considering any trade. If the breakout fails and price falls back below the 4,300 region, the market could revisit the 4,250–4,270 support zone and potentially resume the broader corrective structure.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions.
XAUUSD 1H: Structure Shift and Potential Retest of the FVG + OBAnalysis:
Gold has shown a notable market structure shift (MSS) followed by a break of structure (BOS) on the 1H timeframe.
🔹 Price has moved above the descending trendline, suggesting a change in the recent bearish structure.
🔹 A 1H FVG + Order Block zone around 4,310–4,325 is marked as a potential area of interest if price retraces.
🔹 The key focus is whether this zone can hold as support and maintain the current bullish structure.
🔹 If price respects the zone and continues forming higher highs/higher lows, the next areas of interest are around 4,400, 4,450 and 4,500.
🔹 A sustained move below the marked demand area would weaken this bullish structure and require reassessment.
📌 Educational scenario only — not financial advice. Wait for price action confirmation and manage risk according to your own strategy.
Hashtags:
#XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketStructure #SMC #ICT #PriceAction #TradingEducation #FVG #OrderBlock
The Elephant Jungle 9/20/26 Page 2The Bears are hanging in there and trying their hardest to keep the Bulls from taking out the Range High.
And they have been doing a pretty good job so far, as the Bulls just made their 3rd attempt to take out the Range High, but seem to have failed, or at least that is what it is looking like for now.
And since we are on the subject of what things look like right now, lets talk about how those 3 attempts the Bulls made to get back up to the Range High are looking awfully similar to a Wyckoff Model 2 Distribution.
And if that is what I think it looks like, this could be bad news for the Bulls.
Because if this is a Wyckoff Distribution, it could mean the Bears are getting ready to send these Bulls back down to 74.9K.
And if the Bears build enough momentum, they will more than likely start filling those gaps the Bulls left in the middle of the road, like some highway maintenance workers coming in to fix the damage.
But all hope is not gone just yet for the Bulls.
Because there is always a chance this Wyckoff Distribution fails, flip flops into a Wyckoff Accumulation, and sends the Bulls right back up toward the Current Range High.
And that is where things could get very interesting.
Is this really a Distribution?
Or are the Bears setting themselves up for a nasty surprise when the Bulls flip the script and turn this whole thing into Accumulation?
Lets go to a lower Time Frame and see how that just may happen.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Support & Resistance Analysis for Next Week
Here is my latest structure analysis for Gold.
Resistance 1: 4400 - 4442 area
Resistance 2: 4470 - 4510 area
Resistance 3: 4825 - 4886 area
Support 1: 4165 - 4240 area
Support 2: 4103 - 4120 area
Support 3: 3995 - 4027 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
I expect a pullback from Resistance 1.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Bitcoin Rebound From 76,000$ Could Fuel Further UpsideHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook based on the current BTCUSDT (4H) chart structure. BTCUSDT previously traded inside a range before forming a descending structure, where price repeatedly respected the resistance and support lines. Price then broke above the structure with a strong impulse up, shifting the overall momentum bullish. Currently, BTCUSDT is trading above the 76,000 Buyer Zone while holding near the ascending Support Line. The recent bounce from this area suggests buyers are defending support and preparing for another move higher. As long as BTCUSDT remains above the 76,000 Buyer Zone and respects the ascending Support Line, the bullish scenario remains valid. A continuation higher could push price toward the 81,400 Seller Zone (TP1). However, a breakdown and close below the Buyer Zone would weaken the bullish outlook and increase the possibility of further downside. Please share this idea with your friends and click "Boost" 🚀
Bitcoin Daily | The Structure Is Still the Story⏱️ Reading time: About 3 minutes
On the Bitcoin Daily chart, the main question for us is not simply whether price is going up or down.
The more important question is:
What is the current structure telling us?
From the major low marked on the chart, Bitcoin has developed a significant upward move. Now, we are watching one of the most important structural decision points in the market.
Scenario 1: Bullish Case
In the bullish scenario, the current upward move could be part of a larger impulsive structure.
First, we want to see this current structure develop and eventually complete. After that, a correction would be normal.
A correction does not automatically mean that the bullish structure has failed.
If the correction is followed by another impulsive move, a Leading Diagonal, or even a smaller nested 1–2 structure, that could provide important evidence for further upside.
The area around $126,255–$126,272 is especially important.
A valid break above this area could provide the first meaningful confirmation of the bullish scenario.
If the structure continues to support this scenario, the next structural targets shown on the chart are:
$168,628 → $195,184 → $237,116
These are not predictions or guarantees.
They are simply potential structural targets based on the current Elliott Wave scenario.
Scenario 2: Bearish Case
The bearish scenario is still possible.
If the current upward move fails to develop into a valid impulsive structure, and price begins forming another corrective structure, this could mean that the current rally is only part of a larger correction.
In that case, the 50%–61.8% retracement area becomes important, followed by the 61.8%–78.6% zone.
And there is one important point to remember:
One five-wave move alone is not enough to confirm a bullish trend.
For us, the sequence is more important:
Impulse → Correction → New Impulse
If this sequence develops according to Elliott Wave rules and guidelines, the bullish scenario becomes stronger.
If it doesn't, we simply reassess the structure and allow the market to show us what comes next.
The $15,479 level remains our major bullish invalidation level on this chart.
So as long as the larger structure continues to respect this level, the broader bullish possibility remains structurally valid.
And perhaps the most important idea is this:
We don't try to force the market to fit our count.
We adjust our count to fit the market.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
Bitcoin
Jun 22, 2023
Strong bullish cryptocurrency market???YES
NAS100 SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
NAS100 SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 29,655.6
Target Level: 29,160.8
Stop Loss: 29,984.0
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 12h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
AUDUSD — Bullish Flag Breakout SetupAfter months of bearish pressure that dominated the first half of the year, AUDUSD has made a remarkable recovery. Since mid-July, the pair has been carving out a textbook bullish structure — printing a clean series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows — a classic sign that buyers are firmly in control and the market is in a healthy Advancing Phase.
The rally was strong and impulsive, with price gaining significant ground in a relatively short period of time. This kind of momentum tells us that there is genuine buying interest behind this move — not just a temporary bounce.
The Flag Formation
After such a strong impulse move pushing price all the way up to the 0.7238 resistance zone, it was only natural for the market to pause and consolidate. This is exactly what happened. Price pulled back in an orderly and controlled manner — not a sharp reversal, not panic selling — just a healthy cooldown. This consolidation formed a Bullish Flag pattern, which is one of the most reliable continuation patterns in technical analysis.
The flag has been respecting its boundaries cleanly. Price is compressing, momentum is being reset, and the market appears to be coiling up for the next move. This is exactly the kind of price action that precedes a strong breakout.
What We Are Looking For
A clean breakout and close above the upper boundary of the flag at 0.72388 would confirm that the consolidation phase is over and the trend is ready to resume. Once buyers take control above that level, the path toward 0.74126 opens up — a significant supply zone and our target for this setup.
The stop loss is placed at 0.70751, below the flag structure and recent swing low — giving the trade enough room to breathe while keeping risk defined.
Levels to Watch:
🔵 Buy Stop: 0.72388 (breakout confirmation)
🔴 Stop Loss: 0.70751 (below flag & swing low)
🟢 Take Profit: 0.74126 (supply zone)
As always, patience is key. We do not chase — we wait for the market to come to our level and confirm before entering.
Not financial advice. Trade your own plan.
XAUUSD — 4,370 Retest Before 4,406?
Gold is trading around 4,386 after extending the M30 recovery above the rising trendline.
The short-term structure remains constructive, but price is now approaching an important resistance area.
The simple read
4,370 is the key breakout support.
If buyers defend this zone, Gold may continue toward 4,398–4,406.
A clean break above 4,406 could open the way toward the upper resistance around 4,437.
If 4,370 fails, the deeper structure support around 4,331 becomes the next important reaction area.
Key price zones
4,370 — breakout support
4,331 — key structure support
4,398–4,406 — major resistance
4,437 — upper resistance target
The M30 recovery is still healthy while price holds above the rising trendline.
But resistance is close.
Do not chase the candle.
Wait for the pullback.
Wait for reaction.
Can 4,370 hold and send Gold through 4,406?
Pullback Before Another BSL TestFundamental Analysis
Gold is holding firm after posting its first weekly gain in four weeks, helped by easing oil prices and some reduction in inflation pressure. However, the U.S. dollar remains near a seven-week high, Treasury yields are around 5%, and markets still price roughly a 55% chance of another Fed hike in October.
Technical Analysis
On H1, Gold remains constructive after the recent bullish BOS, but price is now approaching the 4,395–4,410 BSL / major resistance.
The cleaner continuation setup is a controlled pullback into the 4,348–4,368 OB + Fibo zone. If buyers defend this area, the next bullish wave could retest upper liquidity.
Volume Profile also shows an important lower balance area around 4,300–4,318 POC.
Important Key Levels
4,395–4,410 — BSL / Major Resistance
4,348–4,368 — OB + Fibo
4,300–4,318 — POC
4,235–4,250 — SSL / Major Support
Trading Scenario
Buy priority remains on a pullback into 4,348–4,368 followed by bullish H1 confirmation.
Target: 4,395–4,410 BSL.
Invalidation: H1 acceptance below the OB + Fibo zone.
Overall View
The short-term structure remains constructive, but buying directly below BSL offers less attractive positioning. A pullback into support could provide the cleaner continuation setup.
Will Gold retest the OB + Fibo first before breaking 4,400?
H1 Major Supply Rejection Toward Lower LiquidityXAUUSD is trading around 4,378 after extending its recovery from the lower H1 structure. Price has returned directly into the 4,385–4,405 Major Supply Zone, where the broader bearish trendline also remains relevant.
Gold reached a one-week high on Friday as easing crude oil prices reduced part of the inflation pressure that had dominated markets earlier in the week. Spot gold climbed about 1.2%, while softer energy prices helped Treasury yields retreat from their recent highs.
However, the broader macro backdrop remains restrictive. The Fed has raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% and still expects further tightening, while markets currently price roughly a 55% probability of another hike in October. The dollar also remains near a seven-week high, and the U.S. 10-year yield has recently traded above 5%, limiting the strength of gold’s recovery.
Technical View
The H1 recovery has improved after the recent MSS and rebound from lower demand, but price is now entering the main decision area.
The 4,385–4,405 Major Supply Zone aligns with the previous bearish trendline and recent swing structure. This makes the current area less attractive for chasing longs.
A rejection or failed acceptance above this supply could trigger a corrective move back toward the 4,335–4,350 Demand Zone.
If that demand fails to absorb selling pressure, the larger downside objective sits around 4,270–4,290, where the marked downside target and previous liquidity structure align.
Below that, the 4,235–4,250 Major Demand / SSL Zone remains the deeper structural support.
Key Zones
Current Price: 4,378.385
Major Supply / Sell Area: 4,385–4,405
Demand Zone: 4,335–4,350
Downside Target: 4,270–4,290
Major Demand / SSL: 4,235–4,250
Bearish invalidation: sustained H1 acceptance above 4,410–4,420
Trading Plan
Sell Priority: 4,385–4,405
Condition: wait for price to retest Major Supply and show bearish rejection, liquidity sweep, failed acceptance or lower-high confirmation.
TP1: 4,335–4,350
TP2: 4,270–4,290
TP3: 4,235–4,250
Invalidation: sustained H1 acceptance above 4,420.
Sell View
The cleaner approach is to avoid selling aggressively below current price after the recent recovery.
I prefer to let gold test 4,385–4,405 first. If sellers clearly defend the zone, the risk/reward improves for a rotation back toward demand.
A clean H1 breakout and acceptance above 4,420 would weaken the immediate bearish scenario and require reassessment.
Important Note
Lower oil prices are helping gold recover in the short term, but the Fed’s renewed tightening cycle, a strong dollar and elevated Treasury yields remain important headwinds. This creates a two-sided environment where liquidity sweeps around resistance may be aggressive.
Final View
Gold has recovered strongly, but H1 is now testing a key supply area rather than trading from clean demand.
The main scenario is a retest and rejection from 4,385–4,405, followed by a move toward 4,335–4,350 first and potentially 4,270–4,290 if bearish momentum expands.
Will H1 Major Supply stop the recovery before gold rotates back toward lower liquidity?
Gold (XAUUSD): Same Resistance Shelf Across Three Timeframes◆ Read: XAUUSD is testing a resistance shelf in the 4385–4400 zone that shows up independently across the 1H, 4H, and 15m charts, not one signal repeating, three separate structural reads converging on the same price. The 4H version of this shelf has recorded 55 total touches; the 15m shows a nearby level at 52.
◈ What's building underneath: raw volume regime reads QUIET on both the 1H and 15m right now, but the cumulative volume delta trend is Accumulating on every timeframe shown. Net buying pressure has been building steadily without a dramatic spike, a grind rather than an explosion.
⚠ If this shelf holds and price rejects: there's a well-tested support stack beneath, a zone with 23 touches near 4325 on the 1H, and a cluster with 28-45 touches in the 4315–4370 range on the 15m.
🔒 No signals, no promises, a structural read across timeframes, not a trade recommendation. Always manage risk and do your own analysis.
kvmev - AUDUSD outlookLooking to possibly enter short as price continues to trade below the ascending trendline. With the broader structure showing signs of weakness and resistance overhead around 0.71250, I’m looking for further downside toward the 0.69931 support zone. Clean break and retest pattern has printed as well.
___
Disclaimer: The content shared is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Any actions you take based on this content are done at your own risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
HBAR Macro Symmetrical Triangle — $0.56 Breakout Target & $3.09 HBAR/USD | 1M Chart | Macro Technical Setup
HBAR is compressing inside a large multi-year symmetrical triangle, with price continuing to respect both the descending macro resistance line and rising support from the cycle lows.
On the monthly timeframe, this is becoming a significant compression structure. Price is currently around $0.084, so the setup remains unconfirmed — the important event would be a decisive breakout and higher-timeframe acceptance above the descending trendline.
The Triangle Measured Move
The height of the structure gives an approximate $0.389 measured move.
Depending on exactly where HBAR breaks the descending resistance, projecting that move from the breakout area puts the primary technical objective around:
$0.50–$0.56
That is particularly interesting because the measured move converges closely with the previous macro high / 1.0 Fibonacci level near $0.569.
This creates a clear technical roadmap if the triangle resolves upward:
Triangle breakout → $0.20 → $0.316 → $0.416 → ~$0.56
Key Fibonacci Levels
The chart identifies the following levels:
$0.070 — 0.236
$0.105 — 0.382
$0.145 — 0.500
$0.200 — 0.618
$0.316 — 0.786
$0.416 — 0.886
$0.569 — 1.000
The $0.20 region stands out because it is both the 0.618 retracement and approximately where HBAR would begin challenging the upper boundary of the macro structure.
What Happens Above the Previous High?
If HBAR eventually reclaims the ~$0.57 macro high, the Fibonacci extensions on this chart provide longer-term areas to monitor:
1.272 → $1.20
1.414 → $1.77
1.618 → $3.09
The 1.618 extension near $3.09 would represent roughly a 1,000%+ move from the potential breakout region shown on the chart.
Importantly, $3.09 is not the triangle measured-move target. The triangle itself points toward approximately $0.50–$0.56. The $1.20, $1.77 and $3.09 levels are longer-term Fibonacci extensions that would only become relevant if HBAR first breaks the triangle and ultimately clears its previous macro high.
Confirmation
For the bullish scenario, I'm watching for:
1. Break above the multi-year descending resistance
2. Monthly acceptance above the trendline
3. Reclamation of ~$0.20 / 0.618
4. Continuation toward $0.316 and $0.416
5. Challenge of the ~$0.56–$0.57 macro target zone
Until the upper trendline is broken, HBAR remains inside the triangle and the direction is not confirmed.
A decisive loss of the ascending macro support would invalidate the bullish triangle thesis.
This is a monthly macro setup, not a short-term trade. The structure could take considerable time to resolve.
Educational analysis only. This is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell HBAR. Cryptocurrency markets involve substantial risk. Always conduct your own research and manage risk appropriately.
Ethereum Weekly | One Larger Structure, Two Scenarios⏱️ Reading time: About 3 minutes
On the Ethereum Weekly chart, it helps to step back from the short-term price movements and focus on the larger market structure.
From the beginning of the chart, we can follow a larger impulsive structure, where waves I, II, and III are marked at their respective degree.
After the formation of III, the market entered a more complex corrective period, with several swings developing along the way. The main question now is whether this larger correction is approaching completion or still needs more time and structure to develop.
At this point, we are following two scenarios.
Scenario 1: Bullish Case
In the bullish scenario, the larger corrective structure may be approaching completion, and after (IV) is complete, the market could begin a larger upward move.
The first thing we want to see is an Impulse Pattern — Five Waves Up.
In other words, the market needs to develop a valid five-wave structure from the current area.
In this scenario, the initial move could be only the beginning of a larger structure, followed by intermediate corrections before the upward movement continues.
The 2,597.17 area is important as our Bullish Confirmation level. Holding the structure above this area could provide additional evidence for the bullish scenario.
If this structure continues to develop, the potential targets shown on the chart are:
19,534 → 39,407 → 96,606
These are not guaranteed price predictions. They are potential structural targets based on the wave relationships within this scenario.
Scenario 2: Bearish Case
The bearish scenario remains on the table as well.
If the current move fails to develop into a valid impulsive structure and the market enters another Big Correction, the larger corrective structure may still need more time to develop.
In that case, the current count could still represent only part of the larger correction, meaning the market may need additional time and price movement before a larger bullish cycle begins.
For us, reaching a specific price level is not the only thing that matters.
How price reaches that level matters even more.
If the market develops five waves upward, followed by a proportional correction, and then forms another impulsive structure, that sequence could provide important evidence for the bullish scenario.
But if the structure remains corrective, we will reassess the count based on the new market evidence.
Another important point on this chart is wave degree.
For example, I, II, and III belong to one degree, while (III) and (IV) represent a higher degree within the larger structure.
Therefore, we should not compare waves simply by their visual appearance. Degree, proportion, time, and internal structure all matter.
Ultimately, this is what matters most in our analysis:
We don't try to predict the path. We follow the structure.
If the bullish structure is confirmed, the turquoise scenario shows one possible path.
If the corrective structure continues, the black scenario remains under consideration.
In the end, the market itself will tell us which structure is developing.
Patterns whisper. I listen.
— Mr. Nobody 🎧📊
Ethereum
7 days ago
ETH/USD | The Hidden Structure of Wave V
Ethereum
Jul 11
Ethereum | Is the Largest Corrective Cycle Nearing Completion?
XAUUSD — Bullish Pullback Toward H1 SupportMarket Pulse
Gold ended the week on firmer footing, helped by easing oil prices that reduced some inflation pressure. The metal posted its first weekly gain in four weeks. However, the U.S. dollar remains firm and markets still see roughly a 55% chance of another Fed hike in October, so the macro picture is supportive but not fully bullish.
What the Chart Says
XAUUSD still shows a constructive H1 recovery after the strong rebound from the lower demand area.
Price reached the 4,390–4,400 region, then started to pull back. This is normal after the recent bullish expansion.
The main area I am watching is 4,325–4,345. This zone combines previous structure, Fibonacci support and the rising trend area.
If buyers defend this zone, Gold could build another higher low and recover toward the recent highs.
The first upside test remains around 4,390–4,400. A clean breakout above this resistance could open the way for a stronger continuation.
Levels That Matter
4,398–4,410 — Main resistance
4,370–4,380 — Current structure
4,325–4,345 — Main pullback / support zone
4,235–4,245 — Major demand zone
My Main Plan
The main plan remains bullish.
I prefer waiting for a controlled pullback toward 4,325–4,345 instead of chasing price near the highs.
If buyers return with clear confirmation, Gold could recover toward 4,390–4,400 again.
What I Need to See
I want the pullback to hold above the main support zone and form another higher low.
A sustained H1 break below 4,325 would weaken the immediate bullish continuation setup.
Final Read
The H1 recovery remains constructive, but Gold is still trading below an important resistance area.
For now, I prefer waiting for the pullback and bullish confirmation before following the next move higher.
Meta — Healthy Correction or Trend Reversal?Market Structure
Meta remains in a strong bullish structure on the 4-hour chart, with higher highs and higher lows still intact. After an aggressive rally toward new swing highs, price has started to pull back from resistance, suggesting a short-term correction within the broader uptrend.
Market Sentiment - Moderately Bullish
The overall trend continues to favor buyers despite the recent pullback. Profit-taking has increased near resistance, but unless key support levels are broken, the broader bullish structure remains unchanged.
Bullish Scenario
If price finds support around 660 and buyers regain momentum, Meta could retest the 680 resistance. A successful breakout above 680 would expose the 688–690 area as the next upside objective.
Bearish Scenario
If price falls below 660, selling pressure could increase and lead to a deeper correction toward 645. A break below 645 would weaken the current bullish structure and shift momentum toward the sellers.
────────────────────
Market View
Meta has delivered an impressive rally over the past several sessions and is now experiencing its first meaningful pullback near resistance. At this stage, the decline appears more like profit-taking than a confirmed trend reversal. The reaction around support will likely determine whether buyers are ready for another leg higher.
────────────────────
Key Levels
First Resistance: 680
Second Resistance: 688
First Support: 660
Second Support: 645
────────────────────
Outlook
Holding above 660 would keep the bullish outlook intact and could allow buyers to challenge 680 once again.
However, a decisive break below 660 may trigger a deeper retracement toward 645 before the next directional move develops.
────────────────────
Event Risk
Meta may remain sensitive to broader Nasdaq performance, U.S. economic data, Treasury yields, AI-related developments, and company-specific news. These factors could increase short-term volatility.
────────────────────
Please share your view below:
Do you think Meta will resume its rally and break above 680, or is a deeper pullback more likely from here?
I'll continue sharing more Market Structure and Key Level updates.






















