GOLD - A short squeeze before the decline continues toward 3900ICMARKETS:XAUUSD is hovering around the $4,000 mark on Monday, caught between bullish and bearish pressure as markets digest the ongoing escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, while this week's U.S. economic calendar remains relatively light
The U.S. dollar remains in consolidation, although the Dollar Index (DXY) continues to maintain its broader bullish trend. Gold remains under pressure, and the daily technical outlook continues to favor the bears, limiting the potential for a sustained recovery. At this stage, there are few signs that this scenario will change in the near term.
Bearish drivers: Escalation of the U.S.–Iran conflict, supporting both the U.S. dollar and oil prices, Hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric, Bearish technical market structure
Bullish drivers: Geopolitical de-escalation, Weaker-than-expected U.S. macroeconomic data, Profit-taking after recent declines
Resistance levels: 4028, 4043, 4065
Support levels: 3960, 3943, 3900
Gold remains under selling pressure due to a combination of technical and fundamental factors. The broader trend is still bearish. Technically, the market is confirming resistance around 4028.6, and a short squeeze into the 4028.6–4065 liquidity zone remains possible before the broader downtrend resumes toward 3940–3900
Best regards,
R. Linda
Triangle
BITCOIN - A distribution toward 67K before a decline?BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P has transitioned from consolidation into a distribution phase following the breakout above resistance and is now advancing toward a key resistance zone within the broader bearish trend
The fundamental backdrop remains relatively weak for the cryptocurrency market. However, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded inflows for five consecutive trading sessions, providing short-term support for the current rally.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken above the 65,600 resistance level, and the momentum built during consolidation could drive price toward the 67,250 resistance zone. Nevertheless, given the prevailing higher-timeframe bearish trend, this area may act as a significant barrier and halt the advance
Resistance levels: 67,250
Support levels: 65,600, 63,800, 61,800
The broader market trend remains bearish. Price is approaching the key 67,250 resistance zone, where a short squeeze could shift momentum back in favor of sellers. If bears regain control at this level, Bitcoin could reverse and resume its primary downtrend toward 65,600, 63,800, and 61,800
Best regards,
R. Linda
XAUUSD: Tests Descending Trendline – Bears Eye Another Move DownHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current XAUUSD setup.
Market Analysis
XAUUSD previously traded inside a large symmetrical triangle before breaking below support, confirming a bearish shift. Price later attempted several recoveries but continued forming lower highs beneath the long-term descending trendline, while repeated breakouts above the triangle support line failed to produce sustained bullish momentum.
Currently, XAUUSD is trading below the 4,080 Resistance Zone while holding above the 3,940 Support Zone. Price continues to respect the descending trendline, suggesting sellers remain in control despite the recent recovery attempt.
My Scenario & Strategy
As long as XAUUSD remains below the 4,080 Resistance Zone and continues respecting the descending trendline, the bearish scenario remains valid. A rejection from current levels could push price toward the 3,940 Support Zone (TP1).
However, if XAUUSD breaks above the 4,080 Resistance Zone and the descending trendline, the bearish outlook would weaken, opening the door for a stronger bullish recovery.
That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
XAUUSD Long: Triangle Breakout Could Open the Door to 4,140$Hello traders! Here’s my technical outlook based on the current XAUUSD (3H) chart structure. XAUUSD previously traded inside a broad range before breaking below support, confirming a bearish shift. Buyers later defended the 4,020 Demand Zone and formed a series of higher lows along an ascending demand line. Price is now compressing beneath the long-term descending trendline.
Currently, XAUUSD is trading above the 4,020 Demand Zone while remaining below the 4,140 Supply Zone. The market is approaching a key breakout area where the next directional move could develop.
As long as XAUUSD holds above the 4,020 Demand Zone and breaks above the descending trendline, the bullish scenario remains valid. A confirmed breakout could drive price toward the 4,140 Supply Zone (TP1). Manage your risk!
ETHUSDT - The Battle for a Key Support Zone BINANCE:ETHUSDT.P is showing local bullish momentum and appears stronger than Bitcoin in the current market environment. Price action is focused on the 1800–1850 zone, where buyers and sellers are competing for control
Bitcoin remains in consolidation between 61,000 and 65,000, while the broader market trend is still bearish. The lack of both fundamental and technical support continues to weigh on the crypto market as a whole.
From a technical perspective, Ethereum has broken above resistance, confirming a short-term bullish structure. During the ongoing correction, price is respecting the local trendline while testing the 1808–1848 area of interest
Resistance levels: 1848, 1946, 1966
Support levels: 1833, 1807, 1774
The key trigger remains 1848. If bulls can establish sustained consolidation above this level, it could become the technical catalyst for a move toward 1945–1966
Best regards,
R. Linda
Gold Fails to Break Resistance — $3,940 Support in FocusHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook based on the current XAUUSD (4H) chart structure. XAUUSD previously traded inside a broad range beneath a long-term descending trendline before breaking below the range support, confirming renewed bearish momentum. Price later formed a Rounding Top at the trendline resistance, where sellers regained control and pushed the market lower. Currently, XAUUSD is trading above the 3,940 Buyer Zone while remaining below the 4,100 Seller Zone. Price continues to respect the long-term descending trendline, with the recent recovery struggling beneath this major resistance. As long as XAUUSD remains below the 4,100 Seller Zone and the descending trendline, the bearish scenario remains valid. A rejection from current levels could push price toward the 3,940 Buyer Zone (TP1), where buyers may attempt to defend support. Please share this idea with your friends and click "Boost" 🚀
$BTCUSD First bullish setup for bitcoin since MarchBITSTAMP:BTCUSD sits at the resistance of the ascending triangle. This is the first bullish setup since the rally in March. If the breakout starts and holds above the resistance at $63,200, we're looking at a 13% run to $75,000. Interesting to see how this develops. For now, no trades initiated yet.
Canadian Dollar Stuck Between Tariffs and OilUSD/CAD traded with a firmer tone on Tuesday as the Canadian Dollar remained under pressure from the latest U.S. tariff escalation. The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on a range of Canadian goods tied to disputes over cars, alcohol, and dairy, which immediately complicates Canada’s trade outlook. Normally, elevated oil prices would give the Canadian Dollar a cleaner tailwind, but tariff risk and weaker domestic momentum are making that support less powerful.
For the BOC, the rate path remains a hold story. The central bank kept rates at 2.25% last week and continues to balance elevated inflation against soft growth and trade uncertainty. Canadian inflation already surprised to the downside this week and is expected to ease if oil and gasoline pressures fade, but that forecast now sits against a more complicated trade backdrop. The Canadian Dollar is stuck between two forces: oil supporting Canada’s terms of trade and tariff risk undermining confidence in the growth outlook.
In the above chart, USD/CAD has found follow through in recent weeks after finally breaking out of a multiyear triangle that originated in 2023. In June it was noted that “the first hurdle to validate the bullish breakout is the band of resistance formed by the highs in January, March, and April of this year around 1.3929/66. Through these levels, USD/CAD may have offered the strongest confirmation yet that the near three-year triangle has ceded way to a new bullish trading regime.” Along these lines, USD/CAD’s recent turn higher through its 50-day EMA (exponential moving average) ahead of 1.3929/66 suggests that a series of higher highs and higher lows is emerging. The low carved out by the bullish engulfing bar on July 20 just above 1.4000 may be respected as a turning point in the near-term. That said, a resolution of the fundamental disputes, particularly on tariffs, could override this technical turning point and shift the near-term focus back to the downside.
KARURVYSYA: Symmetrical Triangle Breakout ConfirmedKARURVYSYA Bank – Breakout Update
Symmetrical Triangle breakout confirmed with strong volume.
Pattern Support: ₹285–₹300
Major Support: ₹270
Upside Target: ₹372
Bullish structure remains intact above the breakout zone.
Any dip near support may offer a better risk-reward buying opportunity.
thank you !!
Soybean Oil (ZL1!) 1H: Trapping the Trendline Buyers
1. Buyer & Seller Psychology Analysis
• The Retail Buyer Trap: Retail buyers are aggressively buying the touch of the ascending trendline and horizontal support at 71.78 (marked "Buyer"), expecting the uptrend to resume toward 74.46. This buying behavior has clustered a massive pool of sell-stop liquidity (stop losses) directly beneath 71.78.
• The Trapped Buyers' Liquidation: As price hesitates at the high (marked "No Seller"), retail buyers are stuck holding positions at an unfavorable level. Once the trendline support breaks, these buyers will be forced to cut losses simultaneously, creating an aggressive panic-sell reaction.
• The Short Catalyst: We wait for the breakdown signal ("Wait For Break Signal") to confirm that buyers are completely trapped, riding their forced liquidation momentum down to fill the lower gap at 67.58.
2. Trade Setup
• Entry: 71.78 (Selling the trendline breakdown & buyer stop-loss trigger)
• Stop Loss (SL): 73.19 (Placed safely above the local high)
• Take Profit 1 (TP1): 70.38
• Take Profit 2 (TP2): 68.98
• Take Profit 3 (TP3): 67.58 (Targeting the lower gap fill)
XAUUSD Short: Tests Channel Resistance – Rejection in FocusHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook based on the current XAUUSD (2H) chart structure. XAUUSD previously broke below an ascending demand line, confirming a bearish shift. After consolidating inside a range, price rebounded from the 3,940 Demand Zone but remained inside a descending channel. The recovery stalled below the 4,040 Supply Zone and channel resistance.
Currently, XAUUSD is trading above the 3,940 Demand Zone while remaining below the 4,040 Supply Zone. The latest rejection from channel resistance suggests sellers remain in control.
As long as XAUUSD stays below the 4,040 Supply Zone and respects the descending channel, the bearish scenario remains valid. A rejection from current levels could push price toward the 3,940 Demand Zone (TP1). Manage your risk!
EURUSD Rejected at 1.1480 — Sellers Eye Return to 1.1420Hello traders! Here’s my technical outlook based on the current EURUSD (2H) chart structure. EURUSD previously declined inside a descending channel before finding support near the 1.1320 Buyer Zone, where buyers stepped in and reversed the trend. Price then entered a prolonged consolidation range before breaking higher through resistance and rallying into the 1.1480 Seller Zone. Currently, EURUSD is trading above the 1.1420 Buyer Zone while testing the 1.1480 Seller Zone and the long-term descending resistance line. The latest rejection from this confluence suggests sellers are beginning to defend the area. As long as EURUSD remains below the 1.1480 Seller Zone and respects the long-term descending resistance, the bearish scenario remains valid. A rejection from current levels could push price back toward the 1.1420 Buyer Zone (TP1). Please share this idea with your friends and click "Boost" 🚀
## NIFTY 50 – 4-Hour Chart Analysis## NIFTY 50 – 4-Hour Chart Analysis
1. Nifty is trading inside a **large symmetrical triangle**, indicating a period of consolidation where buyers and sellers are preparing for the next major directional move.
2. Price is currently approaching the **upper trendline resistance near 24,350–24,400**, a zone where multiple previous rejections have occurred, making it a crucial resistance level.
3. The Elliott Wave structure suggests that **Wave (5)** of the corrective rally is nearing completion, increasing the probability of a short-term reversal.
4. The chart indicates an **ABC corrective pattern** has likely completed, and failure to break above the triangle resistance could trigger a fresh bearish impulse.
5. The immediate support is around **23,750**, which is also highlighted on the chart as the first downside target after a breakdown.
6. A decisive close below **23,750** would confirm the breakdown from the triangle and could accelerate selling towards **23,200–22,900**.
7. The lower ascending trendline has supported prices several times, but repeated tests generally weaken support, increasing the probability of an eventual breakdown.
8. A sustained breakout above **24,400** with strong volume would invalidate the bearish setup and could lead to a rally towards **24,700–25,000**.
9. Traders should closely monitor the **24,350–24,400 resistance** and **23,750 support**, as a breakout from either level is likely to determine the next medium-term trend.
10. **Overall Outlook: Moderately Bearish (7.5/10)** with the expected path: **24,340 → 24,400 (Resistance) → 23,750 → 23,200 → 22,900**, while **24,400** remains the key breakout and invalidation level.
---
### Disclaimer
> **Disclaimer:** This analysis is based on technical indicators, Elliott Wave interpretation, chart patterns, trendline analysis, support and resistance levels, and the current market structure. It is intended **solely for educational and informational purposes** and **should not be considered financial or investment advice**. Financial markets are inherently volatile, and no technical analysis can guarantee future price movements. Please conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.
GOLD - The hunt for liquidity before the fall to 3900...FX:XAUUSD has completely unwound the bullish momentum generated by the recent news and has printed fresh local lows. The market remains in both a local and broader bearish trend, driven by persistent fundamental and geopolitical uncertainty
Gold continues to trade under pressure, with sellers firmly in control. The next key catalysts will be the U.S. Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations reports. The technical outlook remains bearish, with price making new local lows while still holding above the key 3960 support area. Before the broader decline resumes, the market may enter a liquidity sweep phase, with downside potential extending toward 3940–3900.
Bearish drivers: Escalation of geopolitical tensions, Rising oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar, Hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric, Strong U.S. economic data
Bullish drivers: Geopolitical de-escalation, Weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment data, End-of-week profit-taking
Resistance levels: 4028, 4043, 4065
Support levels: 3960, 3943
The U.S. dollar remains in a strong bullish trend, reinforcing the bearish outlook for gold. Technically, the market is developing a breakout structure around the 3960–3940 support zone. A sustained break and close below this area could trigger another leg lower.
However, before the next sell-off, a short squeeze toward the 4028–4065 resistance zone remains possible. A false breakout of this area could attract fresh selling pressure and accelerate the broader downtrend
Best regards,
R. Linda
Multi-Week Confluence Analysis: Labeled Study of RELIANCE IndustCurrently, the weekly chart of Reliance Industries presents a compelling technical case study involving structural price support and momentum alignment:
1. Structural Trendline Support
Looking at the weekly time frame, price action has corrected from its higher levels back down toward a long-term ascending trendline. This trendline has historically acted as a major demand zone, where buyers have repeatedly stepped in over previous quarters. Testing this floor indicates that the asset is sitting at a key structural value zone.
2. Weekly RSI Momentum Alignment
Price action alone can be deceptive, which is why overlaying the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on a higher timeframe adds weight. The weekly RSI bouncing from it previous support zones.
it may retest its previous resistance that 1610. Also this is the case of ascending triangle pattern on weekly basis, we can analyse the target by drawing the distance of resistance at 1610 to ascending red trendline, such distance gap will be the target price above such resistance of 1610, that will be around 2100.
Disclosure: Educational case study mapping structural chart patterns. I am a student of technical analysis and a professional Company Secretary, not a SEBI Registered Research Analyst. This is not financial advice. I may or may not hold a personal financial interest in Reliance Industries shares. No buy or sell recommendation, this is only for learning.
#RIL #Ascendingtriangle
BITCOIN - A false breakout of resistance in a bear market BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P is forming a retest of the key 64,500 resistance level as part of a countertrend correction, trapping late buyers while the market remains in a liquidity sweep phase
The broader trend remains bearish. Unstable ETF flows, the lack of meaningful fundamental support, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on the market.
Within the broader bear market, the market maker has swept liquidity above 64,500 before pushing price back into the trading range. Bitcoin remains in a 62,000–65,000 consolidation zone, while the higher-timeframe trend continues to point lower. A short squeeze into the resistance area could trigger another sell-off toward the 60K–50K region
Resistance levels: 64,450, 64,700, 65,600
Support levels: 62,750, 61,300
A retest of the liquidity pool above 64,450 may attract renewed selling pressure. If bears successfully defend this key resistance zone, it would further confirm the prevailing bearish market structure and increase the probability of a decline toward 62,750 and 61,300
Best regards,
R. Linda
GOLD - Anticipating a short squeeze before the decline continuesICMARKETS:XAUUSD experienced a short squeeze around the key liquidity zone following Tuesday's CPI release. However, the market quickly regained its bearish momentum and resumed selling in line with the prevailing trend
The U.S. dollar remains in consolidation, as does the broader market, but the Dollar Index (DXY) continues to maintain its broader bullish trend, keeping pressure on gold. The lack of fundamental support, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions, continues to favor the bears. The escalation of the U.S.–Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz remains a key source of uncertainty
Gold is still under pressure, with sellers maintaining control and using every rebound as an opportunity to initiate new short positions. The next major catalysts will be the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Warsh. The daily technical structure remains bearish.
Bearish drivers : Escalation of the geopolitical conflict, Higher oil prices, Hawkish Fed rhetoric, Technical sell-on-rallies
Bullish drivers : Geopolitical de-escalation, Weaker-than-expected inflation data (including PPI), Dovish Fed commentary
Resistance levels: 4062, 4103
Support levels: 4021, 3986, 3960
Technically, gold is testing the 4021 intermediate support level. A local false breakdown could trigger a countertrend rebound toward the 4062 resistance zone to sweep liquidity before the broader downtrend resumes toward 3986–3960
Best regards,
R. Linda
Pre-Earnings Triangle in Tesla Tesla has been struggling all year, and now some traders may see risk of a break to the downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the tight range since July 2. The EV giant has made lower highs while remaining above roughly $390.50. That could be viewed as a bearish triangle, with potential for a move lower if support breaks.
Second, TSLA tried unsuccessfully to break its late-2024 high in December before making lower weekly highs. That may be consistent with a longer-term top.
Third, the 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages are close to each other and essentially moving sideways. Could that long-term neutrality morph into bearishness?
Next, some chart watchers may see potential for prices to slide toward the 52-week low below $300.
Finally, TSLA is a highly active underlier in the options market. (Its average daily volume of 2.8 million contracts ranks second in the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts – especially with earnings due after the closing bell next Wednesday, July 22.
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