Short
Short
Short
Long 
4H Roadmap: The Structure That Will Decide the Weekly Scenario# **DXY | 4H Roadmap: The Structure That Will Decide the Weekly Scenario 🌀**
Greetings, fellow wave practitioners.
In the previous weekly analysis, I presented two valid long-term scenarios for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): an **Aggressive Scenario** and a **Conservative Scenario**. The purpose of this 4-hour update is to determine which of those higher-degree paths the market is currently constructing.
From the most recent major high, the initial decline is unfolding as a **three-wave structure**. This is a crucial observation because those three waves form the foundation for interpreting the higher-degree count. The real question is not where price is going next—it is **what structure these three waves actually represent.**
At this stage, the current rally may simply be a corrective move. If this correction completes within the highlighted reaction zone, the preferred interpretation is that the market is developing **Wave (4) of a Leading Diagonal**. Under this scenario, one final decline would be expected to complete **Wave (5)** of the diagonal, thereby finishing the entire higher-degree **Wave (A)**.
However, markets rarely choose the simplest path. Should the current correction extend beyond the expected characteristics of a typical fourth wave, more complex corrective structures must also be considered. What appears today as a simple correction could evolve into a **Double Zigzag (W-X-Y)** or even a **Triple Zigzag (W-X-Y-X-Z)**, requiring additional time before the correction is fully completed.
For this reason, the focus should not be placed solely on price targets. The highlighted reaction zones, corrective channels, and—most importantly—price behavior around those areas will provide the strongest evidence for identifying the market's true structure. Until that structure becomes clear, every wave count that remains consistent with the rules and guidelines of the Elliott Wave Principle deserves consideration.
Ultimately, the interpretation of this 4-hour structure will determine which of the two weekly scenarios gains confirmation.
If the market completes the current correction and then produces one final decline to finish the Leading Diagonal, the **Aggressive Scenario** will gain significant credibility. In that case, the recent decline would represent only **Wave (A)** of a much larger corrective sequence, to be followed by a higher-degree **Wave (B)** and eventually **Wave (C)**.
On the other hand, if price decisively breaks above the key structural levels and no longer behaves consistently with the expected diagonal or corrective pattern, the **Aggressive Scenario** would gradually lose validity. That outcome would strengthen the **Conservative Scenario**, suggesting that the larger correction has already ended and that the U.S. Dollar Index may be entering a new long-term bullish phase.
At this point, the answer will not come from prediction—it will come from **price behavior**.
As Elliott Wave analysts, our objective is not to forecast the future with certainty. Our objective is to identify the structure the market is building in real time. Once that structure reveals itself, the higher-degree roadmap becomes considerably clearer.
**Patterns whisper. I listen.**
**— Mr. Nobody** 📊🌀
Dollar Index Future
2 days ago
DXY | Corrective Structure Under the Microscope
Long
Short
ETH: 2k in Sight!What’s Changed?
ETH continued its upward move since yesterday, approaching the $2,000 level and breaking through $1,900 along the way.
Primary Scenario
Our primary expectation is for further imminent sell-offs, which should take ETH not only below support at $1,385 but down into our green Target Zone ($1,169–$560.20). We anticipate the low of the prolonged corrective phase to form there, setting the stage for a long-term trend reversal to the upside.
Alternative Scenario
In our alternative scenario, ETH would soon turn higher again to establish a new corrective top between resistance at $2,464 and $3,656. However, this would also be followed by sell-offs toward our green Target Zone ($1,169–$560.20) (probability: 25%).
Long-Term Outlook
The 2-week chart confirms that, going forward, we primarily expect sell-offs into our green Target Zone ($1,169–$560.20), allowing the corrective move that began in November 2021 to complete there. From the Target Zone, we expect a significant upward move, which should only lose momentum in the red Target Zone on the upside ($11,758–$15,475).
Short
Long
Short
Short 
Long
Long
Long
Long
